Global COVID-19 Iceberg With Most Cases Undetected and Unmanaged

Most of the world has 10-100 times less per capita COVID-19 testing than the USA. The USA has probably only detected about 10-20% of its total COVID-19 cases.

South Africa has the fifth most cases in the world. 90% of Africa has virtually no testing for COVID-19. It is impossible that South Africa has rampant COVID-19 and the rest of Africa does not.

The BBC has found that the number of deaths from coronavirus in Iran is nearly triple what Iran’s government claims. Iranian government records appear to show almost 42,000 people died with Covid-19 symptoms up to 20 July, versus 14,405 reported by its health ministry.

Only complete border and travel quarantines would have any hope of containment. This was attempted in China in the early weeks of the pandemic. Complete lockdowns have not been done in Africa or in many large population regions in Asia and South America.

The BBC has found that the number of deaths from coronavirus in Iran is nearly triple what Iran’s government claims. Iranian government records appear to show almost 42,000 people died with Covid-19 symptoms up to 20 July, versus 14,405 reported by its health ministry.

COVID-19 is Obviously Rampant but Ignored in Many Developing Countries

There are many other locations that are likely hiding the true number of cases.

Many African countries have refused to have a regular population census for decades. They are clearly choosing to not test or are unable to test for COVID-19.

South Africa has over 500,000 cases and 8000 confirmed deaths. South Africa has a population of 58 million people. We know that South Africa did not detect all cases of coronavirus in its population. South Africa has 3.5 times less testing per 1 million people than the USA has. Africa has 22 times the population of South Africa. If the rate of COVID-19 in the rest of Africa was the same as South Africa then there would be 11 million cases and 176,000 COVID-19 deaths. This level could be even worse because there is no medical system to treat serious cases.

There are 161,000 global deaths in an average day in a year. There would normally be about 60 million deaths in a year. 1.2 million more deaths in a year is a 2% increase.

Africa mainly has a demographically younger population. This means the death rate (even no medical help for those who get seriously sick) would be about 0.5 to 1.2% of the population. This would mean 6-14 million people over the course of about 2-3 years.

SOURCES- World in Data, BBC, Worldometers
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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