Tesla Market Cap Within 11% of Walmart

Tesla ended the day at a valuation of $352 billion, while Walmart (tenth biggest in SP500) is worth $384 billion.

This has made Elon Musk the fourth richest person in the world. He is behind Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.

Tesla has moved up a lot over the last 12 months. They moved from about $300 to $1900. This is up over 6 times.

There are a number of things that should continue the increasing value of Tesla.
They are having a 5:1 stock split. This is priced in over the last week.

There is a likely SP500 inclusion. This is partially priced into the shares.

There is Battery Fay on Sept 22. There will be many announcements of improved battery technology on Tesla’s battery and battery production capabilities and plans. This is minimally priced into the shares. Likely most of this is not priced in if there are announcements beyond the million-mile battery.

There is a major full self-driving update coming in 6-10 weeks. If this added 25% on features then this would cause the recognition of about $700 million in income. Fees for full self-driving have been collected but only half have been recognized.

There will be Q3 and Q4 car delivery and earnings announcements. If there are no factory shutdowns because of COVID-19 then Tesla could deliver 145,000 cars in Q3 and 200,000 cars in Q4. There would likely be GAAP earnings over $1 billion in Q3 and $2-3 billion in Q4.
If Tesla had $3 billion in net income in Q4 then on an annualized basis this would match Amazon’s net income. This would be on 800K cars per year.

If Tesla grows to 2.5 million cars per year (Shanghai expansion completion, Berlin, Texas, another US factory), then they could make $36 billion per year in annual revenue. This could be in 2022 since Berlin and Texas could complete in the 11 months or less it took to complete Shanghai. Tesla will start making another factory in the US as well (Q2 earnings call statement). Tesla would be at current Google levels of net income in 2022.

Tesla will obviously build more factories each year. If it is three factories in 2020, then it will be more in 2021 and in each following year.

SOURCES- Tesla, Google Finance, Barchart
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)