Tesla Market Cap Within 11% of Walmart

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Tesla ended the day at a valuation of $352 billion, while Walmart (tenth biggest in SP500) is worth $384 billion.

This has made Elon Musk the fourth richest person in the world. He is behind Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.

Tesla has moved up a lot over the last 12 months. They moved from about $300 to $1900. This is up over 6 times.

There are a number of things that should continue the increasing value of Tesla.
They are having a 5:1 stock split. This is priced in over the last week.

There is a likely SP500 inclusion. This is partially priced into the shares.

There is Battery Fay on Sept 22. There will be many announcements of improved battery technology on Tesla’s battery and battery production capabilities and plans. This is minimally priced into the shares. Likely most of this is not priced in if there are announcements beyond the million-mile battery.

There is a major full self-driving update coming in 6-10 weeks. If this added 25% on features then this would cause the recognition of about $700 million in income. Fees for full self-driving have been collected but only half have been recognized.

There will be Q3 and Q4 car delivery and earnings announcements. If there are no factory shutdowns because of COVID-19 then Tesla could deliver 145,000 cars in Q3 and 200,000 cars in Q4. There would likely be GAAP earnings over $1 billion in Q3 and $2-3 billion in Q4.
If Tesla had $3 billion in net income in Q4 then on an annualized basis this would match Amazon’s net income. This would be on 800K cars per year.

If Tesla grows to 2.5 million cars per year (Shanghai expansion completion, Berlin, Texas, another US factory), then they could make $36 billion per year in annual revenue. This could be in 2022 since Berlin and Texas could complete in the 11 months or less it took to complete Shanghai. Tesla will start making another factory in the US as well (Q2 earnings call statement). Tesla would be at current Google levels of net income in 2022.

Tesla will obviously build more factories each year. If it is three factories in 2020, then it will be more in 2021 and in each following year.

SOURCES- Tesla, Google Finance, Barchart
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

13 thoughts on “Tesla Market Cap Within 11% of Walmart”

  1. Unclear. Does China suffer from fan-boy effect as with western countries? Methinks the increasing variety of competitors is diffusing buyers away.

  2. I guess they still lack a cheap model. In Europe the cheapest model 3 with autopilot still costs around 51.000 EUR or 60.000 USD. Normal persons cant afford this.

  3. It’s like the difference between the Tulip mania and the South Sea bubble.
    Trade with the Indies and Pacific really did have a fundamental basis of large profits. Still…

  4. But their monthly sales have been stagnant for more than a year. 2.5 represents more than x5 increase in their sales, they will not be able to do it with their current line of products.

  5. Maybe a mini-Osborne effect there. i.e. Perhaps buyers are waiting for the Model Y to come out, rather than buy the Model 3 now.

  6. Oooh snap. “… Tesla’s registrations of China-made vehicles in the world’s largest auto market slumped by 24 percent month over month to 11,456 in July, Bloomberg reported, citing data from state-backed China Automotive Information Net.

    The lower registrations in China for China-made Teslas come as Tesla’s major competitors saw their registrations rise. NIO, for example, saw its deliveries in July jump four times to 3,533 vehicles, according to the data.

    The Chinese market is one of Tesla’s most important foreign markets and hosts the U.S. electric vehicle maker’s first production factory outside the United States…” It’s not only about first and quality – sometimes its about marketing, local politics, and brand perception.

  8. They are being valued on the same kind of ideas of a Amazon or Google .. but they are not valued anywhere near the same market cap .. ultimately the market is like betting on a horse race at the moment lots of people (me included) think Tesla is a pedigree horse and they like the way the horse is running .. only time will tell if we are right .. we win we get winner money we lose we lose whatever price we sell at .. nobody really knows we just bet on form.

  9. Tesla has superior battery technology which allows them to offer better cars for a cheaper price. Moreover, their supercharger network works better than very heterogeneous charger networks from other providers. So it’s not only autonomy that is driving the success of Tesla.

  11. The idea is that if Tesla achieves FSD the way it’s been planning, it’s vehicles will both have waiting lists to buy and sell for at least $50k-$100k + vehicle price just for the FSD Tesla Network software. A million robotaxis sell for their current price + $50B-$100B for the software. Ridiculous levels of profit.

  12. Investors are betting that Tesla will be the next Apple, Amazon, Google… Not saying that Tesla isn’t going to be that big, but where is the upside at this point? They are being valued right along-side the biggest companies in the world, and yet Tesla isn’t one of the biggest companies in the world.

    Maybe Tesla will be bigger than Apple. I imagine some people believe that.

  13. If Tesla is to reach close to full autonomy as Elon is claiming, then they might reach a 2.5 million cars a year in a relatively short time. Otherwise they don’t have any other big card in their sleeves to justify a big jump in sales. The bottle neck is not that there isn’t enough production to meet demand.

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