Tesla Will Rapidly Grow the Number of Gigafactories Under Construction

Minister of Economy, Labor and Energy of the State of Brandenburg Jörg Steinbach said Tesla’s goal is to complete the construction Gig Berlin factory at a faster pace than the 11-month Giga Shanghai build. Tesla is leveraging modular construction for faster construction.

Tesla is able to complete new gigafactories in less than 11 months. Tesla can raise tens of billions of dollars from the markets, leverage over $8 billion in cash and is rapidly growing profitability to increase the pace of gigafactory construction. 2021 profits will be enough to fund 2-3 new factories each year.

In Berlin, Tesla went from first pillars to first walls in two weeks while this step took 4 weeks in Shanghai.

In Shanghai, Tesla went from first walls to first car bodies in 5 months and to first delivered cars in 8.5 months.

You can see in the pictures that the construction teams have modular wall sections ready to be lifted in place between pillars. The main outer shell of Giga Berlin could be done by the end of September. The first cars could be delivered by the end of December, 2020.

In the second quarter 2020 earnings call there was mention of another new US factory besides the Texas factory. Tesla plans to complete three factories (Berlin, Texas and one other factory) within 12-18 months.

Elon Musk has started talking about a second gigafactory in Asia. This factory would be outside China and the leading rumors are for construction in South Korea or Japan.

Tesla is getting faster at building factories and is building more factories as they grow financial resources.

If each gigafactory will have 500,000 cars per year, then Tesla factory scaling could look like this:
Three factories completed by mid-2021,
five factories completed by mid-2022,
eight factories completed by mid-2023 and
twelve factories by mid-2024.

There could be multiple 500,000 car per year production capacity at the same location. Texas might hold six 500K per year car factories.

By the end of 2021, Tesla would have car production capacity of 2.5 million cars per year.
By the end of 2022, Tesla would have car production capacity of 5 million cars per year.
By the end of 2023, Tesla would have car production capacity of 9 million cars per year.
By the end of 2024, Tesla would have car production capacity of 15 million cars per year.

Tesla would launch various new models. There would be cybertrucks, cybervans, cyberSUVs, and a smaller $20,000 Model 2 that still will have over 300 miles of range.

There would be the SEMI truck and Tesla buses.

SOURCES- Elon Musk Twitter, Inverse, Tesmanian, Torque News Youtube
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture (Brian owns shares of Tesla)