Will UAE-Israel Deal Lead to Larger Gulf Anti-Iran Coalition?

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel have normalized relations. As part of the deal, Israel has suspended the annexation of the West Bank.

The UAE is one of six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The members are the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

The GCC issued a statement this week urging the United Nations to extend an international arms embargo on Iran.

In 2019, the Saudi oil field was attacked and half of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports were shutout. The September 14, 2019 attack dropped Saudi oil production from 9.8 to about 4.1 million barrels of oil a day. This was 5.7 million barrels of oil a day or about 5% of global production. About 2 weeks later production were still down by 1.8 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC need a US-supplied integrated missile defense system to defend against such drone and missile attacks.

Nextbigfuture predicts that more deals will be made with Israel and at least some of the other GCC countries will follow. There is a high likelihood this will happen within three months. The geopolitical, military and economic interests are aligned for the deals and for the timing.

SOURCES- Bloomberg, Foreign Policy
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

33 thoughts on “Will UAE-Israel Deal Lead to Larger Gulf Anti-Iran Coalition?”

  1. I doubt there is a lot of US trade going through Suez. However a disruption could hinder the trade between China and Europe and the Middle East and Europe. I doubt that would be in Turkey’s interest. It would jeopardize its own trade with Europe. Then of course the Suez had been closed before, and it did not cause any major problems.

  2. “”The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is an ancient proverb which suggests that two parties can or should work together against a common enemy. The earliest known expression of this concept is found in a Sanskrit treatise on statecraft, the Arthashastra, which dates to around the 4th century BC, while the first recorded use of the current English version came in 1884.”
    -Wiki

  3. I say hand them a paradise, give them some rules and see if it works. Maybe they get smart and play along once they realize its better on the other side. If not give Israel a blank check to do whatever.

  4. I am no friend of Iran, but they should have let the deal play out a bit longer, they hadn’t done anything and if they did do anything an Israeli airstrike would have happened. Israel does what they want with the limit of anything short of starting WW3, it is the truth. Even at best with the Israeli targets they do go after, they can barely claim a 5-10% success rate in countering them in terms of taking down a single aircraft or missile in any given raid, that’s even if you believe Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria. Israel is good at hitting a target, they are scrutinized more than anyone on collateral damage.

    This is why the smart Arab nations need to follow Jordan’s lead as an emissary of peace and create a working relationship with Israel.

    Make a deal to halt new settlement and crate a real boundary where Jordan is administer of the West Bank (illegal Israeli settlers get a choice of being citizens of Jordan or moving to Israeli territory) and Egypt is in charge of Gaza. AllPalistinians are now citizens of their new nations: Egypt and Jordan.

    Israel gets the Golan and Jerusalem on the condition the Dome of the Rock is not to be touched and all friendly nations Muslims get access to a substantial quota of visas to visit with proper vetting/background checks.

  5. “A pact with Iran that upends the power balance in the MIddle East could enable China to attack the petro-dollar relationship that underpins the strength of the US dollar, and its basis as the world’s global reserve currency.”

    That is a bit simplistic. At this point, it’s China that depends on the Middle East for oil to fuel their economy. The EU being even more dependent. The US only relies on 8-9% of it’s energy from abroad, China gets 60% of it total energy and 90% of its oil from abroad. Any major disruption to the flow from the Middle East has far more profound implications for China than the US. There is far more to the value of the US dollar than simply it’s relationship to oil and that relationship gets weaker every year. Triggering any type of showdown with the US that disrupts oil production significantly would be a disaster for China and would impact China more than the US.

  6. There’s no reason for doubt, because they never complied with it in the first place, nor were they actually expected to comply with it. It was a sham agreement on both sides.

    For instance, while the agreement required them to accept inspections anywhere, they were always given a veto over proposed inspections. They stated where the inspectors were going to be barred from, and in return the inspectors never asked to inspect those sites. Ta da! Magically, the inspectors got access to everywhere they wanted to look.

  7. As for the monopoly part – no one was stopping others from forming a bank, the
    reason the Jewish bankers and moneylenders were so despised so
    consistently is that they were just better at it than everyone else, that is literally how jealousy works you know.

    Think of it as an ingrained cultural pursuit, in the same way that Asian parents of
    certain origins are perceived as treating their childrens education
    rather intensely compared to the laxer (and somewhat inconsistently successful) western hands off method of parenting over education.

    In the same way you could say that intelligent management of finances is instilled among children born into certain Jewish families at a young age – this encourages prudent and cautious choices in later life that add up over multiple generations just as effectively as more impulsive, potentially more gainful but risky financial decisions.

    The slow hare wins the race and all that.

  8. Show me a large western country that hasn’t committed war crimes in the prusuit of greater power and wealth and I will show you the keys to immortality and superhuman powers.

    As for the “immorality of strangling poor people with your wealth” – well what, did you expect them to just give money away?

    Given the history doesn’t exactly begin recently with Jewish holocausts I can’t imagine that their priorities stem to other peoples any more than other peoples stem to them.

    The earliest (non biblical) account of a Jewish holocaust I’m aware of was committed by the king of England called Edward 1st, the same older one from Braveheart.

    He literally financed a shitload of war campaigns by massive loans from the Jewish moneylenders and subsequently deporting and/or murdering them after they were of no more use to him – given that, do you still think that Jewish moneylenders would be apt to just give away accumulated wealth?

  9. It’s short sighted to call an anti Jewish racist a Muslim.

    Even if he isn’t a white supremacist jerking chains he could just as easily be a paid divisive troll – I’ve seen more such talk in the last five years than ever in the entire time I’ve been on the internet (20 years).

  10. You didn’t actually refute the fact that Jews were turned into scapegoats – you just outlined the reason it was easy to turn them into scapegoats – however the manner in which you did it sounded a bit like a racist freudian slip.

    “Fat Jewish bankers” doesn’t sound particularly analytical to me.

    Please take that kind of talk elsewhere please.

    I’m all for honest political discussion, and Israel (the nation) certainly has its faults politically, but that sort of nasty talk belongs somewhere else.

    Blaming the poverty of working people for those with forethought and good financial sense is a poor substitute for actual debate – which is precisely why Hitler used it, the German populace were miserable and misery loves company.

    Having said that it still took Hitler years to wear them down – the fact that Trump won with such similar tactics is a very worrying indicator of the sad state of racial tensions in the US – BLM doesn’t even scratch the surface, it’s rotten to the core.

  11. Nope. Iran was free under the deal to develop “civilian” nuclear industry but no nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, no surprise inspections were allowed during the deal… Hands up anybody who thinks this would have ended with anything else than nukes in the hands of religious fanatics…

  12. There’s zero reason to subscribe to the “”Not so sure that Iran had any intent to abide by the nuclear agreement anyhow” crowd of thinking – that is precisely the kind of attitude that was used to justify Trump breaking the deal in the first place.

    He broke it – this much is completely clear from all reported intelligence services, the only side to watch for shifty behavior is and always was the US in this matter.

  13. Pretty sure Iran wouldn’t accept another nuclear deal with the US, knowing that in a few years all bets could be off with a new administration. Not so sure that Iran had any intent to abide by the nuclear agreement anyhow. And I’d guess that part of the Iran-China deal is at least one nuclear power plant and deliveries of fuel – a great way to thumb their noses at the US and create mutual dependence.

  14. There is an old saying, ” when someone is making a fool of himself, Don’t interrupt him .” Please keep speaking.

  15. “Seriously.. Does anyone care about what the UAE do or not do?”

    I do hope that was a joke.

    They are one of the richest nations in the world – they own a shitload of property and business stakes across the developed world.

    So yes, some people do care about what UAE do.

  16. Hitler was not a German born citizen to begin with – he was Austrian.

    You can quibble over Austria being German if you wish.

    There is nothing to understand about the holocaust beyond a simple scapegoat tactic.

    The allied powers broke the Germans after the end of WW1 and demanded crippling financial remunerations for the war.

    Hitler’s entire strategy for accumulating power predicated on focusing blame for all the post WW1 economic troubles of the German populace on the Jewish cohort among them – it is not entirely dissimilar from the actions of the US during WW2 towards their native Japanese population, only where the US just rounded them up into camps, the Nazi’s progressed to theft and murder on a progressively larger scale until Auschwitz.*

    *Don’t quote me on US treatment of the Japanese – I would not be surprised if there was at least some theft and murder of the captive US native Japanese during WW2, that’s just the way that people act when they see an opportunity with little likelihood of punishment.

  17. The other things you listed are basically “opposing” Iran by any other name.

    The only way for a long lasting peace is business – war is costly, in both lives, lost equipment and buildings.

    Business if far more profitable in the end – unless in the case of the US where war is the business through the MIC of course.

    Until the main components of the MIC are nationalised, the US will forever be pushing war here, there and everywhere – simply because there is profit for many extremely rich, influential people in doing so.

  18. Under Obama’s admin a multinational nuclear deal was signed with Iran which withdrew the sanctions against them in return for a discontinuation of their nuclear development program.

    No intelligence service reported any break from those terms prior to Trump – its was Trump that broke it by pulling out of the deal and resuming if not increasing former sanctions, thus giving the Iranians all the excuse they needed to startup a nuclear program again, gee what a success!

    Not.

    Some ‘businessman’ he is – as clearly the only outcome of breaking that deal is war, not business.

  19. Me thinks the rich Arab nations are starting to realize that it’s Israel not Iran they want to align with if they want stable, prosperous nations. Every nation Iran touches turns to fecal matter. With the west moving away from oil and China trying to limit its dependence on it, the wealthy Arab nations know they need to use what reserves and capital they have to shift their economies. That means following the west and Israel (the Wests proxy state in the region). That is not to say Israel wont do what they feel in necessary without western approval, there are just limits/red lines. Banding together and developing at least a working relationship with Israel would increase their power and credibility on a global scale.

  20. These moves are occurring against the backdrop of an impending deal between China and Iran which has recently been announced. Once the deal is inked, and if China fulfills its end, then Iran could receive hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. Such a development could effect a sea change in the entire Middle East. Iran would easily be able to nuclearize itself, while resisting Western sanctions for doing so. iran would then be free to project its power across the Middle East, including into shaky Iraq nextdoor where there there is a huge Shia majority population, as well as among other Shias living around the Gulf region, such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc. This is in addition to the support Iran already gives to its clients controlling Damascus and Beirut.
    China, for its part, would be triggering a massive showdown with the US, which it might be well-placed to win, as the world’s most massive land power. This could become the next Cold War. A pact with Iran that upends the power balance in the MIddle East could enable China to attack the petro-dollar relationship that underpins the strength of the US dollar, and its basis as the world’s global reserve currency.
    In the meantime, Turkey’s Erdogan is acting up to stretch his legs by sending troops into Libya, and may be about to establish a military presence on Egypt’s border, something which is already causing alarm in Cairo. If Turkey were to succeed in destabilizing Egypt, then the US could lose access to the Suez.

  21. Luca dude you are the single most consistent thing on this site, I literally clicked on this article to see if you were alive. You have become a meme.

  22. Yes Obama was quite the Man. Hard to stand up to a guy who bows all the time to our nations opponents. Tough Iran! Standing up to Obama “Like a rock” is easy when that politician has the spine of a marsh mellow (and hates America as well).

  23. I paraphrase Thomas Sowell. “If we removed Arab nation’s weapons, there would be peace. If we removed Israel’s weapons, there would be a bloodbath.” Let’s hope the Arabs begin to face the real problem; themselves. Look inward instead of blaming outward.

  24. Israel’s desalination plants are the world’s best, one imagines that this could be a good commercial opportunity.

  25. As opposed to Iran’s blinding success under post nuclear deal US breakage sanctions?

    At this point there really isn’t much more to say on Iran – unless a new administration comes to the US in January and renews the nuclear deal terms.

  26. Maxim 29. The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy, no more, no less.
    Opposing Iran is not enough for a long term peace, let’s see what kind of mutual projects, like anti-missile defenses, biotech or military exercises they do together.

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