Middle East Endgame With Iran Contained

Iran should give up the mistaken belief that they will be allowed to get a nuclear bomb.

The countries that oppose Iran developing nuclear weapons have strengthened their alliance.

Iran hopes that Biden wins the election and that Joe restores looser terms and lifts sanctions.

Israel Can Hit Iran Without Midair Refueling if Basing From Bahrain

However, there is large economic and military capability in the normalized bloc with Israel, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan and soon Saudi Arabia. The group could deliver prolonged airstrikes to stop Iran’s nuclear program even without US military support.

Israel would have significant logistical problems sending bombing runs to Iran. There would be airspace access issues and the need for refueling. The fuel issues would limit the duration that planes could stay over Iran.

Israel would be in combat range of Tehran if they could operate out of Bahrain or Dubai. The F15E Strike Eagle has a combat range of 792 miles. The F16I Sufa has a combat range of 851 miles. Iran’s nuclear facilities would mostly be less than 600 miles away.

The logistics and the combined military and economic forces will be able to defeat Iran in the event of actual military engagement. The normalized economic bloc will have superior economic growth. Over time Iran will continue to lose ground economically. The economic sanctions speed up the shrinking of Iran’s relative economic size compared to its middle east opponents.

Recent Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Facilities and Infrastructure

The US and Israel have used cyberattacks, economic sanctions, bombings and assassinations to derail the Iranian nuclear program.

In July, 2020 the Iranian Natanz nuclear complex was damaged by a powerful bomb. This was likely an Israeli operation. The damage at the nuclear fuel enrichment site has delayed Iran’s nuclear program by several months.

There have been dozens of events in Iran. There have been fires at industrial complexes, powerplants and warehouses in Iran.

There was an explosion at a missile production facility.

Iran’s Economic Situation

Iran’s currency is at its lowest value ever against the US dollar. It has fallen 30% since June amid severe U.S. sanctions imposed on Tehran. Money exchange shops traded the Iranian rial 262,000 for a dollar. Iran’s currency was at 32,000 rials to the dollar in 2015 when they had the nuclear deal.

The economic sanctions have brought Iran’s GDP from about $600 billion to $410 billion.

Iran is exporting around 600,000 barrels of oil per day. This is down from over 3.5 million barrels per day when sanctions were lifted in 2015.

Platt Analytics projected that Iran would get back to 1.8 million barrels per day at the end of 2021 if Joe Biden becomes president of the USA. It is expected that Biden would restore a nuclear deal.

If Trump wins a second term, analysts believe that Iran would give up within a year or two and negotiate a new deal that would lockdown their nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US and other oil-producing countries will not make it easy for Iran to win back any oil market share even if sanctions are lifted.

SOURCES- Sp Global, NY Times, Wikipedia
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com