Sandy Munro Explains How ICE Carmakers are Screwed

Sandy Munro explains how Tesla’s Big Cell glued onto the cooling plate will be manufacturing and serviceability wins. Sandy Munro has a company that for decades has been engineering and reverse engineers cars. He takes apart and studies every component of the leading cars.

He shows the prismatic cell and the pouch cells that are used by competing companies. Those other batteries are clearly more complicated. This is why the Tesla Big Cell will be made at thousands per minute off the assembly line and then glued onto the cooling plates for better heat management.

Sandy can see a worthwhile $25,000 electric car that will kill combustion engine cars.

Sandy said the people who really understand engineering know they saw the future of cars and energy yesterday.

The vertically integrated cars slide is telling the ICE car makers they are screwed. The numbers on slide indicate a decade of dominance for lithium-ion batteries.

CATL is pushing the battery technology at a similarly rapid pace. However, Tesla is innovating everything in the whole car from materials to parts to the whole car. Tesla is innovating manufacturing, cooling to performance.

SOURCES – Autoline Network, Tesla
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

37 thoughts on “Sandy Munro Explains How ICE Carmakers are Screwed”

  1. And who pays you, R.Kimhi?
    Are you unable to understand the simple idea that Musk put forward – the battery will be structural – the main central supporting structure of a car that may weigh up to 2 tons.
    From what I understand, it is going to be several times stronger and much stiffer than a conventional car body. Hundreds of 4.6cm wide cylinders embedded in resin, between structural cooling plates. Doing two jobs, and saving weight and material and cost, allowing the battery to be bigger and the car to be cheaper and have extra range and better performance.
    So, you think that individual battery cells are going to "unglue"?
    I think you are quite right. A smart chap indeed. They missed that possibility. Tesla cars are going to fall apart, collapse, as the main structure unglues. Those chaps at Tesla obviously need your expert help. Better give them a ring …

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  2. Orbital solar does not make sense if launch cost is zero and the panels are free. The recieving rectenna for 2.4 GHz radiation is 10 km in diameter for a 1 km in diameter satelite transmitter, and making the satelite smaller increases the size of the reciever. People cannot live inside the second or third lobe of the airy disk pattern so you end up with a Chernobyl exclusion zone around each reciever, and at 200 km you need very many Chernobyl exclusion zones and very many satellites rapidly switching between rectennas and trying to maintain an even distribution of energy. For geostationary solar you compound the problem, as you either send visible light directly to ground, undoing any benefit of having transmitter in space (e.g. weather) or you send visible light to one of many orbital transmitters, which then transmit it to ground at 2.4 Ghz with all the problems of space based solar in LEO.

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  3. It helps that your parking spot is already wired. At the same time battery capacity suffers quite a bit in extreme cold, aka Canadian Springtime.

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  4. Does anyone check the price of charging these cars? I looked up the price in my area which is probably the same in most areas and it was $1.25 / KWh (level 2). One recent car with an 82 KWH battery that had a range of 250 miles would cost $102 to fill up. If you think that will replace the ICE cars you need to go back to school. With more demand on the electric grid, that price may go up. The power actually costs about 12.5 cents/ KWh.

    There are some technologies in development that may make charging obsolete. That would make EVs practical and would require far less batteries which would lower the cost.

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  5. Per VW's website the $40k first edition ID4 can no longer be preordered..

    BECAUSE IT IS SOLD OUT.

    Also subtract $7,500 to $10,000 to account for tax credits. The tax credits are basically cash payments to the auto manufacturers and there is a cheaper version of the ID4 available mid 2021.

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  6. You must have a terrifying commute if you're fueling up a few times a week, when your average ICE car gets 2-300 miles on a fill up. Personally, I fill up every 2 weeks, and I'm driving a small SUV for my work commute.

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  7. With VW announcing the ID.4 at a $40k price point, I'm skeptical that any of the above manufacturers will create enough EV marketshare to transition their ICE sales.
    More likely a Chinese EV manufacturer will make inroads by buying out the hollowed out companies above.

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  8. CA decreed no new gas cars by 2035. How do the million cars that park on the streets of LA and SF charge? This is not a trivial problem.

    Even where a I live in OC there is some street parking. EVs work well when you have a garage, many people don’t.

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  9. Other manufacturers can buy their own tents if necessary, no need to buy them from Tesla.

    Look at the list of major car manufacturers. Who is Tesla planning on selling to? Subaru? Chrysler?

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  10. !00% correct, without the benefit of home charging BEV's have a big disadvantage. Fast charging the bottom 70% of the battery takes a reasonable time but availability is lacking in uncrowded places and overused in crowded places.

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  11. Tesla is the gorilla in the room. Their position means anyone with a novel idea in batteries or anything wants to sell it to Tesla first.
    Musk is J.D. Rockefeller on steroids in this century. Same sort of cover your bases and chains. If it makes sense do it. In today's case Musk has the third rail of environmentalism blowing on his back. Leave out co2 and a bev is still a good idea

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  12. So cell volume increased by ?

    Cell Surface area increased by ?

    Cell Energy density increased by?

    Cell Cost decreased by?

    Slow but sure incremental increases and performance advancements opening up gap between Tesla and everybody else

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  13. Does anyone have an opinion regarding how Metalectrique's Aluminum-Air battery will stack up against Tesla over the coming years? There was a lot of hype on their AA battery this time last year and since then its been crickets. I am sure Metalectrique has manufacturing and distribution issues to overcome but if, and it's a big if, they can do that it would seem the Metalectrique would have a future. Thoughts

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  14. Elon says that he wants the other manufacturers to produce EV's too and is not out to crush them. Speculation is that his factories themselves will be products sold to other car manufacturers, along with the skateboard architecture.

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  15. I live in an apartment in Calgary with a designated parking spot. There is an electric plug there to run the block heater when weather gets *really* cold. If residents of the apartment building start plugging their BEVs in overnight, the apartment owners might want to arrange that electricity from that plug gets charged to the specific resident. Would that be difficult?

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  16. Tesla is the gorilla in the room. Their position means anyone with a novel idea in batteries or anything wants to sell it to Tesla first.
    Musk is J.D. Rockefeller on steroids in this century. Same sort of cover your bases and chains. If it makes sense do it. In today's case Musk has the third rail of environmentalism blowing on his back.

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  17. I'm more interested in the implications of a rapid shift in demand for electricity. It will take time to reconfigure the infrastructure, and this will put pressure on markets and prices.
    Then again, if prices are high enough, there may be an opportunity to justify investing in orbital solar- so there's that.

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  18. Gotta be a little careful with that statement, even given that this is more hardware than software.

    I recall someone in the computer lab when I was in college mentioning that Microsoft was going to take some of its Macintosh apps and start making them for the PC clone (MS-DOS) machines.

    We just laughed. Word, Excel, and Access for the PC market? That market was already locked up with Wordstar (and WordPerfect), as well as Lotus 1-2-3, and dBase.

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  19. yeah – and like a broken record — the logistics. Many, if not most, car owners don't have their own designated parking spot that can easily accommodate a full-time charger — and likely don't have access to such at work, family, etc. Fuelling up a few times a week for 3 – 7 minutes as an ICE is hassle enough – 2 – 5++x that at a public stall – misery. Complacency and comfort with the existing will keep 50+% of non-single-family residence occupants in an ICE (and a non-shared vehicle) well past the 2030s.

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  20. If you mean an alternate universe where the industry was all BEV and you wanted to build an ICE car, yes it would be much harder and effectively impossible to sell it. As it is though, the existence of a complete supplier network and a vast pool of knowledgeable employees makes it MUCH easier to start up an ICE car maker from a manufacturing standpoint. It’s just a problem of how to persuade buyers to take your offering.

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  21. So Musk pays you to write comments and like/unlike comments online on his behalf at your free time after working for him 16 hours a day? Your loyalty is damaging you.

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  22. to the thought ice manufactures are moving to bev, I say too little too late. As you can see Tesla is way ahead and has the best engineers. No way anyone of them will ever catch up.

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  23. The reality test of this prediction is when vehicle fleet operators switch over to EV's. The way fleet vehicles are used is more conducive to EV usage than conventional private usage. The other issue that is rarely mentioned is that of the presumed reliance on intermittent power sources. I believe most advocates of EV's are under the delusion that wind, solar, and other forms of intermittent energy when, in reality, increased electrification of the economy will require mass amounts of nuclear power (fission, fusion, LENR, something I can't think of right now). I would be a lot more on board with the advocates of EV's if they acknowledged this reality. Unfortunately, far too many of them are under the pernicious influences of "green energy" schemes as well as "leftist" politics in general.

    I am not surprised that Sandy Munro is an advocate of EV's. As a manufacturing specialist, he is well aware of the radically reduced number of parts, particularly moving parts, and manufacturing simplicity used to make EV's as opposed to ICE's. This is the REAL reason (I suspect) why conventional car manufacturers are all developing EV's. They are simply easier to make. This is also the reason why car manufacturing start-ups like Tesla even exist in the first place. It would be far more difficult and expensive to do an ICE car manufacturing start-up.

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  24. Makes sense that EV's are easier – the reduction in moving parts just makes the entire stack more reliable.

    I wonder if Tesla will ever switch to wheelbase motors for extra efficiency.

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  25. ICE makers are making EVs. VW ID4 was released today in North America.

    VW ( including Audi, Porsche): moving to EVs
    Ford: buying VW EV powertrains
    GM: moving to EVs
    Honda: buying GM EV powertrains
    BMW, Mercedes: making their own EV platforms
    Toyota: probably moving to EVs, not talking much
    Hyundai-Kia: EVs
    Mazda: piggybacking on whatever Toyota is doing

    Nobody else (e.g. Fiat-Chrysler, Nissan, Mitsubishi) matters. Its easier to make EVs than it is to make reliable cars. Frankly easier to make EVs than it is to make hybrids.

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