Tesla is describing a step by step path to halve the cost of batteries and increase production by 7 times for each battery line.
It will take 12-18 months to get volume production. It will take 3 years to fully realize the 69% reduction of factory investments and 56% reduction in battery costs and the 50+% increase in range.
They will make a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle and are targeting 20 million cars per year.
The Model S plaid will be available to order now and will be delivered by the end of 2021.
The large cell is confirmed. It is a 4680 cell. The size increase alone will increase storage by 5X and range by 16% and power by 6X.
Tabless battery technology is also confirmed.
They are on the fourth revision of the Maxwell dry battery cells.
They will scale the roadrunner pilot plant to 10 GWh per year within one year.
Elon mentioned that the next battery factories will have about 200 GWh per year of production. Each line will produce 20 GWh.
They will reduce the investment needed for factories by 4X and reduce the factory space by 10X.
Tesla plans to have 100 GWh/year of the new battery factory by 2022 and at least 3 TWh per year by 2030. They want to reach a steady-state of 10 TWh/year of production.
They have silicon anodes.
They have reduced the costs of their use of silicon, lithium and nickel. They will get closer to using raw materials. They will not need to process the materials as much or at all.
There is enough lithium in Neveda to electrify all 300 million cars in the USA and they will recycle the nickel, lithium and other materials.
They have made structural batteries. The pack is structural. The non-cell portion of the battery is now structure for the car and is a massive weight reduction. The mass of the car body will be 10% less and will give a 14% range increase.
SOURCES- Tesla Battery Day
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
LHV for gasoline is approximately 45 MJ/kg.
Nuclear fusion occuring on the sun is the primary source of all energy available to humanity. So you have reason to be frustrated.
You're on form Pat
They're talking about using at least 3 different cell chemistries in a variety of pack sizes. Recharge/discharge power rate is basically (cell chemistry X pack size). Lithium Iron Phosphate for instance has less energy but can be charged/discharged more quickly. A current "regular" cell from Tesla Model 3 needs about 45 minutes to go from 20-80% charge without stressing the pack. So yes doing 150kW supercharging reduces the lifespan of your Model 3 battery pack but 50kW not really. Lithium Iron Phosphate can handle about 4x faster than that without stressing the pack.
You could also design the Lithium Iron Phosphate Tesla to have a more powerful motor due to it having a faster discharge rate (so more peak power). Way too many permutations for a presentation slide.
Never having fusion is more frustrating.
Only on Venus.
The big difference is that you can drive yourself in the meantime.
You can't convert mass to energy by hand.
But with self-driving we get better and better driver assistance as we wait for full self driving. Autopilot over the air software refresh coming in Q4. No human intervention most times on home to work commutes. From parked car to roads to highway with lane changes and to a parked at destination.
correct, typo
Solar and batteries can work on Mars.
3 yrs is tomorrow.
Not as revolutionary as many people had expected. But any improvement in capacity and price per watt is welcome especially something that can be delivered in large quantities.
Both are extremely difficult. The deeper you dig into them the harder they get.
They didn't touch on recharge rates directly (e.g. the quantitative improvement) which I found surprising but power density is a two-way street. IMO, the tabless design will improve charging rates significantly to the point that charging infrastructure will almost certainly be the limitation.
So then, the claim that storage is increased by 5X is very misleading since it is written in the same context as saying that overall range is increased by 16%. Thanks for the clarification.
I saw Tesla stock was down considerably after hours.
Aside from the economy car, which like the cybertruck, is 2 years away, there isn't that much here.
Anyone who was looking for a 1,000-mile range car, or recharge rates comparable to 5-minute ICE refueling, will be severely disappointed.
Storage per-cell is increased but you can't pack as many cells into the same space when they're bigger so the range increase is more modest.
"The large cell is confirmed. It is a 4680 cell. The size increase alone
will increase storage by 5X and range by 16% and power by 6X."
I don't understand why storage is increased by 5X but range only by 16%. Shouldn't more storage translate to the same amount of range increase, assuming weight stays the same?
Very exciting and instead of lauding it, the dumb media complains that the improvements will happen in the future instead tomorrow.
I hope that this is just the beginning and the price will be reduced even further in next few years.
Elon has said previously that nuclear are too risky politically and wrt public opinion so he won't spend time on it.
pretty good. At that rate we could get to 500kwh per kg by 2030.
I don’t know what is more frustrating:
That fusion is always 30 years away
That self driving cars are always 3 years away
Edit function does not work, so I will add that for Mars, we are already in Space, on the way there, and can save effort by deploying the power system, Solar Power Sats, before having to land them!
The race is on! H or batteries for storage, power beaming instead of big storage at all. I like things that don't rely on hv transmission line power grid. Make your *juice* locally.
Nit pick: should be per kwh, as the energy capacity, not a power capability.
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2009/70070criswell/ndx_criswell.pdf.html
for baseload solution, and esp ppg 12-13 for distribution, load balancing, and supply balancing. For Mars, simple Solar Power Sats will do just fine.
I find it crazy how someone as brilliant as Elon completely ignores molten salt and small modular reactors as the future of electricity baseload. Are we just going to bury millions of dead windmills and solar panels in the worlds deserts? Plus nukes are the only viable solution for a standalone Mars Civ. Weird.
"Every three or four months there's a new rev."
Bingo.
It will be about 340-360 wh/kg
520 mile range for the model S plaid
Battery prices are stuck at $160/kw for two years despite the technological progress. There are supply and demand issues here that are not being fully analyzed and addressed.
The information on the new Plaid Model S flashed too quickly for me to focus my eyeballs on. Did it say 510 mile range?
Where will we be in three years?