Tesla’s Model Y factory in Shanghai could be start production in November. The Q3 earnings report showed that the megacasting and other production equipment appears to be mostly installed.
Above there two main buildings in the Tesla Shanghai picture. The one that is closer in the new Model Y factory. The one behind it is the Model 3 factory
Below are pictures from the Q3 Earnings report of the equipment and production lines in the Model Y Shanghai building.
Tesla started model 3 production at 2,000 a week in December 2019 but did not deliver the first cars from the China factory until January, 2020. If Tesla can start building Model Y’s in China in November then there could be eight to twelve thousand delivered in December, 2020 if the Model Y factory ramped at the same pace as the Model 3 in Shanghai. It could be slightly easier and faster to deliver the new Model Ys but Tesla will need to verify the quality of new production before the cars are delivered.
Tesla would be surprising the investor community if there is Model Y production and deliveries from Shanghai before the end of 2020. The Model Y factory will have the same capacity as the Model 3 factory. Model Y production will ramp in 2021 and likely deliver 150,000 to 250,000 cars in 2021. Model 3 production in 2021 from Shanghai will probably be 250,000 to 350,000.
Tesla Berlin production in 2021 will be 100,000 to 200,000 and Tesla Texas production in 2021 will be 50,000 to 100,000.
Tesla Fremont production in 2021 will be about 500,000 to 600,000.
Tesla should make about 1,050,000 to 1,500,000 cars in 2021.
The numbers of cars mainly depends upon :
when the Model Y production starts in China,
when Berlin starts production
and when Texas starts production.
The lower estimates assume the scheduled completion dates of Q1 2021 for Model Y Shanghai, Q2 2021 for Berlin and Q3 2021 for Texas.
The higher estimates assume each factory getting completed and started one quarter earlier. The ramping of production is assumed to match Tesla Shanghai Model 3 in 2020 without the Covid shutdown.
SOURCES – Tesla, Tesla Gigafactory Texas – Joe Tegtmeyer Youtube, Berlin Gigafactory
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Just wait till we see Cybertrucks rolling around.
I saw a Model Y on the road yesterday for the first time. I see Model S and Model 3 pretty regularly now. Tesla's cars are pretty distinctive-looking. They really jump out at you when you see them on the road.
And of course Tesla will sandbag the guidance for 2021 in their investor call in Q4…
The 1050 000 number is almost confirmed by Elon in Q3 earnings call. An investor asked if a guidance for 840 000 – 1050 000 was realistic for 2021 and Elon answered that "you are not far off".
Now my question is if a 100% growth is already priced into the stock price of Tesla for 2021? The forward PE ratio is 190, but I wonder if that is based on a 2021 sales rate of ~700K, i.e. about 50% less than NBF has a lower end?