China’s Newest Plan Targets Moderate Developed Nation Income Level by 2035

China’s newest five year plan has a target of reaching moderate developed nation per capita income levels by 2035.

Spain has a per capita income level of $26,000 now and Italy has a per capita income level of $30,000. Those countries have GDP growth rates of about 1-2% per year. If China were to catch up to Spain in 2035, then China would need a per capita income around $30,000.

China’s current nominal per capita GDP is $10,839. If China had about 5% per year GDP growth this would double China’s per capita income by 2035. Combining that with a 50% strengthening of the chinese currency versus the US Dollar, then this would enable per capita income to get to the $30,000 per person level in 2035.

China’s nominal GDP is $14 trillion now and doubling GDP by 2035 would be $28 trillion. If the currency also strengthened from about 6.8 CNY to 1 USD to about 4.5 CNY to 1 USD GDP would be around $42 trillion.

China’s new five year plan again will emphasize innovation and boosting research and development as a share of GDP.

China has set long term goals for emissions reductions. This will speed up the shift to electric vehicles and increase nuclear power, solar power, hydro and wind.

SOURCES- Bloomberg, SP Global Platts
Written by Brian Wang,