Elon Musk is 49 so his risks are very low with COVID. Elon is a multi-billionaire and will be able to get the best treatments.
Having two positive tests out of four then this is 99% likely that Elon has COVID. Early stage COVID rapid tests only have false positives 10% of the time. False negatives are about 30%.
Elon said he had the symptoms of a typical cold with nothing unusual so far.
Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2020
A good PCR test should identify if I have the cov2 spike proteins, although I have heard some low accuracy numbers for those too. Hard to get a straight answer.
False positives will roughly scale with # of tests & daily test rate has gone ballistic: pic.twitter.com/Pv6s71jZQo
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2020
Lab I just spoke to said cov2 PCR detection (N1 & N3 genes) below 30 cycles is reliable & above 40 cycles is not
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2020
SOURCES – Twitter
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Trying to upset someone by taking a wild guess as to their motivations and basing your insults on that guess has an obvious failure mode. Many commenters on the internet think they are a lot more telepathic than they are.
And you didn't even show that Elon was an idiot, you just showed that his comments might upset and confuse other people, if they were idiots.
The virus doesn't "die out" once 60-70% of people have developed immunity. There are a whole bunch of immunologists and epidemiologists who can explain why. Or, if you want a deep-ish dive, here's the wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Sounds like you don't really understand how PCR tests work?
That feeling when you start your sentence, calling someone an idiot, with a spelling mistake.
In case you don't know molecular biology, PCR detects DNA or cDNA (made from RNA). It can't detect proteins, and imagining that *every biomarker* is *always detectable* in *every sample* is a fundamental misunderstanding demonstrating lack of understanding in this field.
He has deep pockets, unlike normal folk. He'll get great care.
As a Tesla stockholder and a SpaceX dreamer I wish Elon wasn't so carefree.
Everyone can greatly improve their chances of surviving Covid-19 by maintaining a blood level of 50 ng/ml of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (vitamin D). https://youtu.be/UzGKqujdTQ8?t=512
My problem with twitter.
Need people to trust you and listen in order to figure out problems.
Person publishes facts/finding inconsistent with accepted data,
15% of people: Interesting maybe there is a problem with the test or something?
10% of the people: Hey i understand but disagree, let me find some evidence to back this up.
25% of people: ARE YOU CHALLENGING ME AND MY VIEWS!!! BRRAAAA!
50% of the people: popcorn
1.3 million, but close enough for government work.
Wait, I thought the theory was that the tests were drastically UNDER counting the real numbers, and that actually the USA had 200 million cases and was nearly at herd immunity.
Will someone clear this up and establish a consistent fake news conspiracy theory?
I really hope Elon doesn't actually have this virus, but everyone knows he's usually ahead of the game. So, if he does have it, he probably has COVID-39 and just got a vaccine for it from his future self from 2040.
Appearing to run things??
I see no reason to be pessimistic at the prospect of enduring immunity. It is rapid mutation that makes us experience colds regularly. And even if there is recurrence, I would expect the body to fight it off much faster the second time.
I goofed, Smallpox is not the most contagious disease:
None-thttps://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/10/17/6993851/diseases-deadly-infectious-reproduction-information-beautiful
I had it confused with measles which I read somewhere was the most contagious. Rotovirus actually wins that award. Nonetheless, the rest of what I said is probably valid. Well, the 10,000 is supposed to be 10,000BC, so 12,000 years ago actually. Whatever the actual date it was probably after the the Bering Strait closed, as there wasn't any in the New World.
"Why smallpox was able to kill millions every year for hundreds of years without every achieving herd immunity?" Smallpox is the most contagious virus known. The percentage required to reach herd immunity was so high that there were always enough children born, for that population to be sufficient to perpetuate it. And it has been doing its thing for at least 10,000 years, not just hundreds. This is how you get "childhood diseases". There are always more children.
But most types of Corona Viruses create immunity for a short time right. So there is never a herd immunity. Maybe we should not expect covid to be different.
Why smallpox was able to kill millions every year for hundreds of years without every achieving herd immunity?
So 12% more 80-year-olds, and also a lot more 70-year-olds, a fair number of 60-year-olds, plus various younger people who had preexisting conditions, were overweight, or just unlucky. According to one study, the average person who died of covid lost ten years of life.
In terms of absolute numbers it's like a couple jumbo jets falling out of the sky every day, which I think we would consider a crisis.
But sure, say it doesn't matter because most victims are old. I thought we lived somewhere that took care of our weak and elderly, like any civilized society, but apparently not.
The percentage is a function of the contagiousness. Covid-19 appears to be more contagious than most viruses, so the percentage required is more likely in the 80-95% range. Though, immunity from having a similar virus in the past could move that required percentage downward.
And, of course, getting people vaccinated will also achieve this. And if we get 90% of every population on the globe vaccinated, we may never see this thing again. Better to take a few years getting this done, so we can see any unexpected long term effects if there are any, from the various vaccines and chose the best ones.
Herd immunity kicks in when enough people have immunity so each person infects less than one other person on average. Once about 60% to 70% of people have developed immunity, the virus dies out.
If we can slow things down enough so most people get that immunity from a vaccine instead of from the disease, then a lot fewer people will die.
What's the over/under of almost everyone in the world eventually having had some form of COVID-19, eventually?
When we had 200K covid deaths, we had 300K total excess deaths, which is way more than the normal variation. If anything, covid deaths are undercounted.
Hospital beds and ICUs are reaching capacity. This is not normal. The excess patients have positive covid tests and covid symptoms.
And don't say this is hospitals faking it for money, because they're making less money due to people putting off lucrative elective procedures for fear of catching covid. Meanwhile their staff is working tons of overtime.
OK here are some facts thatyou can use to protect your extended family:
First: There was astudy done in Indonesia that showed 95% of those who died of covid were vitaminD deficient. The critics said it was not double blind and themeasurements of before and after were not made etc etc. BUT 95% is a hugeunambiguous number. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202005/research-suggests-link-between-vitamin-d-deficiency-and-covid-19-deaths
ALSO: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200518/more-vitamin-d-lower-risk-of-severe-covid-19
Second: NIH did a study where24 in each group were checked into the hospital with covid. Both receivedstandard treatment but the second group received doses of vitamin D. Thirteen of the first group went into intensive care. The second grouphad one go into intensive care and they all eventually went home. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/coronavirus-and-vitamin-d/faq-20493088
Third: Approximately three tofour times as many black people are dying as white people. About 85% ofblacks are vitamin D deficient while about 25-30% of whites are. Note theratio. So the victim narrative the media loves is BS. Black peoplehave dark skin which produces less vitamin D than a white person given the sameexposure. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/
Fourth: Before covid existeda study was done which showed that those with vitamin D deficiencies were
If his latest roll of the crazy dice comes up snake eyes will SpaceX and Tesla be better off if he wasnt involved in appearing to run things?
They all recieved a false-positive covid test after they died of obesity, heart disease and diabetes.
Yeah those 250K dead people are probably just napping.
My tweet to Musk: "Antigen tests well known to give false positives: https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fda-test-idUSKBN27J2K6 & should not be solely relied upon. PCR test is the "gold standard." 5% false positive rate in a disease 1/1000 people will get is almost useless because almost 95% of positives among healthy people."
I know a nurse who tested positive, then the next day negative, and the next day positive. It's a joke. This whole thing is way over blown.
The odds of getting two false positives out of four tests might not be independent, depending on the cause of the false positive. He may just have a coronavirus common cold.
Much more likely for him to have a false-negative than a false-positive. If I were betting on it, I would say Elon has Covid.