Global plugin electric car sales in September, 2020 were 345,000 which on an annualized basis would be over 4.1 million cars. This was 4.9% of global car sales. October numbers for EV sales in China increased 137% Year over year to 121,000 in October, 2020. Total passenger car sales in China was 2.02 million cars in October. China’s EV car sales were 6.0% of total car sales in October.
From January to September, the 2020 plugin share to 3.4% (2.3% BEV). This is about 1% above the 2.5% of last year.
If October through December had EV’s holding 5% of the total global car sales then electric vehicles could hit 3 million in annual sales for 2020.
Europe electric car sales are expected to reach 10% share of new vehicle sales in 2020 and 15% in 2021. A Cleantechnica analyst forecasts YOY EV sales in the US of 70% in 2021 versus 2020, with sales increasing to 585,375 in 2021 from 345,285 in 2020. This would mean EVs would have 3.5% of overall car sales in the US.
Europe emissions law can result in penalties of 1 to 2 billion euros per year for automakers that don’t meet fleet emissions targets.
Global EV car sales could hit 5 million in 2021 and 9 million in 2022.
SOURCES- InsideEVS, Cleantechnica
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Things will get interesting when a chinese automaker gets serious about exports.
But more on point, there is an interesting dynamic that we may see ICE being relegated to the range extender role for a PHEV eliminating conventional ICE drivetrains. Which can easily push things into the realm of ICE range extenders being only a government thing as conventional ICE vehicles and private PHEV ICE range extender vehicles are no longer reasonable in cost to regular people. Governments have an emergency support mandate, which means high energy density fuels in situations where general infrastructure is broken and require dispersed operations. They also operate fleets, and frequently possess their own refueling stations, which allows maintaining their own niche market. Uncertain about commercial vehicles, which often have a high energy requirement if they use hydraulic subsystems for stuff like pumps, and can accommodate large fuel tanks which would allow a reduced refueling infrastructure network that would be troublesome for smaller tanked vehicles.
There is no shortage of lithium if you're willing to pay twice the price. There is effectively unlimited lithium reserves in brine aquifers at about 2x current price (maybe cheaper at scale). This doesn't include potential future alternatives like sodium ion batteries.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/geothermal-project-secures-funding-to-help-pilot-lithium-extraction.html
Would the parts for a 2020 ICE vehicle, that's broken a radiator hose in 2040, be any more difficult to source than a year 2000 vehicle that's broken a radiator hose in 2020?
In both cases, the parts may have gone out of production 2 decades ago.
Will there be enough raw materials (at a reasonable price) for all these huge battery packs? I personally hope so for the sake of the planet being able to support sentient life, but perhaps a better route would be similar to the Volt. A majority of days, you will only use 1/5 or less of a Tesla's battery capacity. I'd like to see a better version of the Volt sometime in the future with a battery range of just 40 miles coupled with a wave disc engine for supplement electrical power. The Volt was able to get through 2/3 of its miles on electricity. When in hybrid mode it still got over 40 miles per gallon of liquid fuel (and if it had a wave disc engine for generating this would likely be about 100 miles per gallon). If you are going 120 – 300 miles for every gallon of gasoline, you are basically just sipping gasoline at a rounding error of our current consumption. And with less than 1/5 the batteries.
The ICE cars will be sold and used for as long as the governments will allow it. As the production capabilities of electric cars change, espetially in the EU, this might come sooner.
Even if the cars are still in good shape and running, the cost to operate an ICE may climb astronomically. Less gas stations, less mechanics willing to work on them, less available parts all because the same have increased proportionally for electric vehicles (I.e. more EV charging stations than gas stations, more EV only mechanics with no ICE experience, etc). And none of that includes possible future carbon taxes or other restrictions on still running an ICE car.
And people thought we wouldn’t be reaching those numbers for another decade. 5% of overall total sales and at least 10% in Europe? That’s a mega trend right there.
Extrapolating from the percentage increase most new cars sold in 2030 will be EV. The majority of cars on the road will still be ICE cars until about 2040. Today's cars tend to have long lives. By 2050. there will be few ICE cars on the road.