Updating the View of the Post-Pandemic Future

Seven months ago, Nextbigfuture looked at the post pandemic world future as the pandemic was starting. We are now about halfway through the global pandemic. The World Bank’s baseline projection is for a 5.2% global economic contraction. China and several other Asian countries will have positive GDP growth in 2020. The US and many other developed countries had strong economic rebounds in the third quarter. In April, it looked like there could be one to three years of economic depression but it appears the main economic hit was for 2-6 months.

Underreported Statistics

Videos from Russia point to an actual death toll far higher than the 33,000 official COVID deaths. Statistics indicate there have been 130,000 COVID deaths in Russia so far. Russia had 160,000-170,000 excess deaths from April to November. 80% of these excess fatalities were likely Covid-19 deaths.

Many other countries in the Middle East are also vastly underreporting their COVID-19 deaths.

Stronger Medicine and Accelerated Cures

In April, Nextbigfuture predicted that the massive effort to develop vaccines for COVID-19 would boost and accelerate the development of cancer vaccines. Streamlined regulatory approvals will speed up the approval of all new medical treatments.

In November, the first COVID-19 vaccines have phase 3 results of 90-95% effectiveness and emergency authorizations are imminent. Pfizer should be applying for emergency use authorization tomorrow.

A clinical trial at the University of Arizona Health Sciences is showing good results for a personalized cancer vaccine in combination with the immunotherapy drug Pembrolizumab. Five of the 10 patients experienced a clinical response to the personalized cancer vaccine, and two patients had a complete response after the treatment (no detectable disease present).

Companies that Will Dominate the Future are Showing Strength During the Pandemic

In April, Nextbigfuture noted that companies that thrived in the Great Depression of the 1930s dominated for four decades after the depression. We predicted that this will be the story during and after the Pandemic.

Tesla’s share is up 333% in the last seven months. Tesla is growing car sales in 2020 by over 40% compared to sales in 2019.

Zoom has been leading the way to the video calling and remote working future.

The IEA expects oil demand to decrease by 8.8 mb/d in 2020 (versus 8.4 mb/d in last month’s Report) and to rise by 5.8 mb/d in 2021 (versus 5.5 mb/d last month). Vaccines are unlikely to significantly boost demand until well into next year.

Electric cars, trucks and buses will flatten the growth in oil demand around 2025-2030. Electrified transportation will start a declining demand for oil in the 2030s.

World in 2020 to 2040

The World has had a reasonable recovery in the third quarter and with the vaccines deployment starting in December and significantly deployed in first half of 2021 there will be substantial normalcy in the second half of 2021.

It has been thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has been 75 years since World War 2. Nextbigfuture believes the nuclear arsenals and other geopolitical conditions will continue a future where the battles between major developed powers in minor.

Self-driving electric trucks will have lower ton-mile costs than trains. This will be a boost to future economic growth.

SpaceX and the fleet of fully reusable Superheavy Starships will have transformed satellite and cargo transportation by 2030 and then intercontinental passenger flights in the 2030s.

China and the USA will remain nearly equal in terms of overall GDP through 2030 and China should be about 30% ahead by 2040.
The EU will fall behind in 2021 with Brexit and then fade to about half the GDP of the USA by 2040.
India and ASEAN will each be around the GDP level of Japan around 2030.
India and ASEAN will be approaching the GDP level of the EU around 2040.

SOURCES – IEA, University of Arizona, CNN, Google Finance
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com