CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Priority Plan Could Cause 100,000 Avoidable Deaths

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) gave its recommended COVID-19 Vaccination Priority plan and it is still wrong. The CDC is ignoring its own science on the most at risk groups.

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that health care personnel and long-term care facility residents be offered COVID-19 vaccination first (Phase 1a).

On December 20, ACIP updated interim vaccine allocation recommendations. In Phase 1b, COVID-19 vaccine should be offered to persons aged ≥75 years and non–health care frontline essential workers, and in Phase 1c, to persons aged 65–74 years, persons aged 16–64 years with high-risk medical conditions, and essential workers not included in Phase 1b.

Frontline medical staff age distribution. About half of the frontline medical staff are below the age of 45. However, the frontline medical staff come in contact with the at risk population.

The second most at risk group 65-74 (5-6 times the risk) are behind 30 million other people. 65-74 have 5-6 times the risk of regular people.

47 million old people should be in the 1a and then the 1b group. The 30 million non-medical staff should be after the most at risk old people and native americans who have five times the risk.

About 90% of the COVID-19 deaths might be prevented by vaccinating the oldest 10% or so of the population. Mixing in people with far lower risk that make up 20-40% of the population will delay getting coverage of the most at risk by months. This means the 3000 deaths per day will continue for an added 60-90 days.

Kathleen Dooling, a public health official at the CDC, gave a presentation to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that 87 million essential workers should get the vaccine before older Americans. Essential workers include bankers, movie crews, teachers and supermarket cashiers. Prioritizing essential workers and not at higher risk medical workers over the elderly would increase the overall number of deaths by between 0.5% and 6.5%.

The CDC and the ACIP prioritized 87 million “essential workers” because racial and ethnic minority groups are underrepresented among people over 65.

The CDC plan will not be a “fast deployment” scenario for vaccination. Fast deployment means we target the 47 million most at risk first with the most vaccine and drop the death rate rapidly from January through March, 2021. The CDC plan will mean a less sharp decline that will take until June. This will result in over 100,000 additional, avoidable deaths.

We are scaling up to about 10 million vaccines per week in about 3 weeks. In about 4 months we could have 20 million vaccines per week.

This policy is like the March, 2020 order to put infected seniors back into New York nursing homes. The action in March caused needless excess deaths. If this CDC decision stands then not prioritizing real science will cause many avoidable deaths.

30 million essential but young workers in 1b will delay vaccination of those over 75 by about 2 weeks and those 65-74 by 5-10 weeks. mixing in 101 million other people will delay vaccinating all of the 65-74 by another 5-8 weeks.

SOURCES- CDC, Lancet, Persuasion community, Worldometers,
Written By Brian Wang,

35 thoughts on “CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Priority Plan Could Cause 100,000 Avoidable Deaths”

  1. Operation "warp speed" is turning out to be truly inept. "…but just 2.1 million or so shots have been given to people." Where is the organization and planning? 14+ million doses distributed, and only 2.1 million people have got the first shot? What is that?
    So, is this a case of, vaccinate the doctors and nurses in the hospital, and then go on vacation? What happened to vaccinating 20 million before the end of the year?

  2. I would be surprised if real events haven't involved people getting into legal trouble, or career limiting trouble, because of what the computer guessed would be the correct word.

  3. The fast spread in Europe and Latin America were probably because of different cultural norms of personal space…and in Europe…mass transit, small homes, and the kiss greeting. I have noticed that Mideast languages tend to be spoken louder. Maybe it is important for clarity, I don't know. Though, I kinda doubt that is a big factor. But I admit that is speculation.
    I think the fewer the phonemes and the easier they are distinguished, the quieter someone can talk clearly. But there are other costs. The grammar may have to be more sophisticated, use a lot of idiomatic phases or you may have to use a lot of syllables to say the same thing, and thus it is slower and less efficient than other languages.
    It is one of my aspirations to make conlang that is scientifically engineered to be near optimally efficient, have high clarity of meaning, express states of mind well, be creativity friendly, and sound very nice when sung…among other more unique attributes. Sadly, I have no aptitude for learning foreign languages, so it would have to be a team thing.
    Even saying one language is "more" efficient than another, is offensive to linguists, I have discovered. But like anything else, there are better and worse by various objective measures.
    I am especially fond of prepositions. In English, many of those are just older versions or borrowed and not truly adopted. Though, we still have a large number. It is spatially/mechanically inadequate in my judgment.

  4. The early wave in the US was mostly due to higher numbers of affluent globe trotters in some States like New York, Washington, and California. Individuals are a major factor. I beleve there was a NY cabbie or Uber driver who infected many. And there were the infected ships. Some of the early spread was due to those people not being quarantined aquatically. Then there was giving a warning that they were going to close down travel from Wuhan. That just made a stampede of people leave Wuhan bringing virus with them. And even worse was not shutting down travel from Iran early. The second they said they had 2 deaths and only 2 cases, we should have ended flights. You don't get 2 deaths from 2 cases. We also should have investigated everyone who came into the country from November to that time, to check for cases. There was a bunch of cases from a nail salon.
    It really does come down to individual actions. Some by politicians, some by ordinary people. Florida had a big spike due to beach parties. If those authorities/organizers had said "not this year" things would have been different.
    I continue to see people wearing masks with their noses hanging out in San Diego, even during this serge and all the beds full. And for months there were parties every weekend at the various neighbors' homes. And I mean 2-3 every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night. More parties than ever. Slowed down the past 2 weeks.
    Currently, rural spread is exploding. Probably from churches/bars.

  5. If we are not hearing that they are running out of vaccine and the antibody treatments for the infected, they are not doing their jobs, in my opinion. There are so many very vulnerable and so many infected, it should not be hard to find plenty of good candidates. And, hey, if they are not excited to be offered it, give it to someone who is. Wasting time trying to talk them into it just puts more lives at risk.

  6. Letting the elderly die will only work if you just let them die. The minute you try to save them it all goes for naught. Just line them up and vaccinate them. Today, I asked my sister-in-law if they started vaccinating people in the nursing home she works as a nurse. She said no but they are handing out consent forms for them and the residents to sign. Ain't nothing going on but people dying so what's the rush.

  7. Bypass the Big Pharma dumbed down lemmings.

    That protocol uses a combination of prescription medicines, manufactured by…. big pharma.

    I'll also note that melatonin is regulated by exposure to sunlight, so it might not just be the Vitamin D that getting outside helps with.

  8. Yes I did look at the other links, that's why I said they were better.

    I've certainly been taking vitamin D tablets and taking a little more time to get outdoors and photosynthesise since it was reported as resulting in mild to zero covid symptoms back in March or something.

    This isn't new information. Though that doesn't mean it is common knowledge, because it's far less interesting to the MSM than what is effectively salacious/malicious gossip which is what modern journalism is largely reduced to these days. Not to mention that at least 3/4 of the MSM clock cycles have been US election politics this year.

    I can't begin to (usefully) speculate as to why particular regions and states do better or worse at different times. I know that in Australia/NZ it comes down to individual random events, where one person choosing to do a particular thing ends up changing the statistics for a whole state, but I'd have thought that the several orders of magnitude greater numbers in Europe and the Americas would have averaged out individual actions and left you with more general factors like climate, race, language etc.

    Climate: People cluster inside or not depending on weather.
    Race: At the very least, different skin colours result in different vitamin D levels for a given lifestyle. There are other racial disease vulnerabilities too for some pathogens.
    Language: We now acknowledge that singing and shouting spread droplets of saliva much more than talking. Different languages?

  9. Bypass the Big Pharma dumbed down lemmings. Use I-MASK Prophylaxis & Treatment Protocol headed up by Dr Paul Marik. My wife and I are on it.

  10. Yep it was not double blind or a multi part study lasting over several years. Did you read any of the other links? Can you take several pieces of information that all point to the same conclusion? Beside I am recommending you spend 10 dollars on a vitamin that has no known side effects. Heaven forbid you risk wasting 10 bucks.

  11. Some people just can't do moderation, and large doses can be a problem for some, as they take things in proportion to how much they worry about them. Those with kidney disease may worry more because it is a preexisting condition that is common as a comorbidity. Maybe we only have to be concerned about the intersection of those groups, but maybe suggesting a multivitamin would be a better alternative:
    Although, it seems silly that people have not already heard about vitamin D. Are they really that isolated? Well, I suppose there are people who avoid any mention of Covid-19 in anything they read or listen to, because they can't stand to think about it. However, I think the bulk of people who haven't heard are Amish or Mennonite in the U.S. and they tend to get a lot of sun. And then there are coma patients 😉

  12. They meddled and confused and spread conflicting bad (and fake) information in matters where the decision making should have been the sole domain of the medical and scientific community.

  13. Of course you follow the media cause the media is known for not being misleading and always telling you the truth. You didn't even take the time to tread the sources. Cause you already have an opinion and there is obviously no way you could be wrong. Have you reproduced yet?

  14. I don’t mind spell check, but don’t replace my attempted spelling of a word with an unintended word. Sometimes it can be funny and sometimes it gets you into trouble with the reader.

  15. I give Trump only a small amount of credit for that…mostly for promoting it when much of the part of the right wing he is speaking to are skeptical. The companies were going to make this anyway. With potentially 7 billion customers, and a race, I think we would probably be right where we are at. Maybe less doses earmarked for the US without Trump, and more for European countries. But we appear to be very slow to get these shots in peoples' arms. Most are still in the freezer. So maybe we are exactly in the same place. Though that could change, as more is used. Then we probably would have run out more quickly. And there is the possibility that Congress would have made the deals themselves, and we would have the same deals. Though in that scenario, they may have picked the wrong companies just to get companies located in other States and districts rather than concentrating where the real experts are at. So good chance of enormous waste or delay.
    And I am unimpressed by warp speed generally. Why was the FDA so slow after the tests were complete. Most of a month just squandered. Then there is this issue of who to give it to still unresolved? Why wasn't this all ready to go too? Everything on the government end was pathetic other than the money. And Pence has earned himself a big fat FAIL, as he was put in charge of the government's responsibilities in Warp Speed.

  16. There's a balance between (1) people at the most risk if they contract the virus, (2) people most likely to contract the virus due to their level of exposure, and (3) people most likely to spread the virus to other people.

    Brian is only looking at (1) here. You could make a case for ignoring (3) since we don't know for sure that the vaccine prevents transmission, but we should definitely consider (2).

  17. A similar thing happened with the HIV epidemic. Policies in NY & CA to made HIV results anonymous and hence prevented contact tracing resulting in over 100k avoidable deaths especially among the highest risk population (MSM = men-sex-men).

    On the international level, resistance against circumcising despite the scientific knowledge at the time resulted in a decades long delay until an African study demonstrated a large reduction in the transmission rate if circumcised. The result was probably millions of unnecessary deaths. Political correctness should have no place in public health.

    Public health should be based upon science.

  18. I'm not too worried. Already had it. Been there done that. I'm still antibody positive after a year. Friends and extended family have caught it, but their experience was the same as mine; mild flu. Swine flu a few years back was far worse in my personal experience. I mean sure, when the vaccine is widely available why not take it? I get a flu shot every year. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. It is what it is.

  19. The indonesian study doesn't tell us anything unless we know what % of the people who DIDN'T die are also Vit D deficient.

    I'd lead with the other studies, they seem to at least ask the correct questions.

    And I did a 5 hour ride in the sun today!

  20. Spell check isn't a problem. Auto-correct is the work of Satan and installing it on someone's communication device is a blatant act of sabotage.

  21. Here in NC – according to the state Covid19 Dashboard – Hispanics make up 25% of the cases but only 8% of the deaths. That means Hispanic mortality rate is 1/3 of the Non-Hispanic mortality rate. Probably because they are younger than the average population.

  22. OK here are some facts thatyou can use to protect your extended family:

     First:There was a study done in Indonesia that showed 95% of those who died of covidwere vitamin D deficient.  The critics said it was not double blind andthe measurements of before and after were not made etc etc.  BUT 95% is ahuge unambiguous number.


    Second:NIH did a study where 24 in each group were checked into the hospital withcovid.  Both received standard treatment but the second group receiveddoses of vitamin D.  Thirteen of the first group went into intensivecare.  The second group had one go into intensive care and they alleventually went home.

    Third:Approximately three to four times as many black people are dying as whitepeople.  About 85% of blacks are vitamin D deficient while about 25-30% ofwhites are.  Note the ratio.  So the victim narrative the media lovesis BS.  Black people have dark skin which produces less vitamin D than awhite person given the same exposure.

    Fourth:Before covid existed a study was done which showed that those with vitamin Ddeficiencies were

  23. There is study after study that links vitamin D deficiency with Covid death. In Indonesia 95% of those who died were vitamin D deficient. Studies out of Spain and India and England all show at least a 3/4 reduction in deaths. The media refuses to tell people about this. There is something else going on when $10 of vitamin will reduce deaths below the common flu levels and yet people are not being told.

  24. Maybe the CDC isn't running it and it is advisory. I have a family member who is one of the tiny tiny percentage of people on earth who are actually at risk from this flu, and they are already scheduled for mid January.

  25. Saving the most lives I have been assuming is best too. However, maybe we should be aiming for the least human years lost. I am not insisting one approach is better. I don't know. How many 94 year olds is equivalent to say 100, 54 year olds. Is it 100? 130? 150? I presume the 54 year olds that are dying still would have had a couple of decades, while the 94 year olds probably have less than 5 years left. Still, the elderly are precious, especially to their grandchildren. I don't think I could advocate allowing two 94 year olds to die to save one 54 year old, but others might say ten is fine.
    I still think our best chance to save the most lives is to figure out who is at most risk of dying if infected, and of those, who are most likely to be infected (who must risk infection) and get them those vaccines quickly.
    I think we can skip the elderly that are independent, retired, and have a property large enough to protect them from something coming in the window, for now, if it means we can get diabetics who are working as bus drivers or clerks. 
    I guess I am just one of those people that thinks we can save nearly everyone, if we really do a good job of identifying who is at the very highest risk. I also want to see them actually using these antibody products. I read that many of these doses have not been given to anyone…just sitting in cold storage. How many lives are we squandering there? People with dangerous comorbidities testing positive, I would treat.

  26. I suspect a combination of Cowardice and Calculation…

    There is probably fear that there will be a tiny fraction of deaths or other major harm due to vaccine side effects – and that the elderly will be more at risk of those. Starting there would create the appearance of higher risk due to vaccination, potentially discouraging others from taking the vaccine, or even getting overblown and creating political pressure to shut down vaccinations pending more safety testing.

    So get the (younger) essential workers done first, with less risk of harm/death from side effects. Everything then looks to be going smoothly, they can cite impressive sounding percentage reductions in cases and deaths (despite the absolute number saved being far smaller) and they generate momentum for the program so that the number of side-effect-deaths among the elderly can be diluted by the larger number of vaccinations done by the time phase 1b starts.

    And of course, they avoid the risk of being too successful too soon. If death rates fell dramatically from just vaccinating elders, the rest of the population might see less value in getting vaccinated, possibly resulting in the virus hanging around a lot longer. I don't think this is a realistic fear, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a factor.

  27. I love "SpellChek!" I suspect you typed "comorbidities" and the robot corrected you. You have discerned that the Covid panic is very political. Cheers.

  28. I hate to think it but the politics of this make sense. The elderly tend to run conservative by a small percent. Co-morbidities seem to be the driving force and should take precedence.

  29. Reducing the number of deaths should be job #1. If one could afford to be logical then black and Hispanic males over 70 should be first. But doing so would upset a lot of people. It may just be the political correct thing to reward those you took the greatest risk.

  30. what about Brazil, where SJW were able to include indian tribes, prison population AND communities of 18th century ran away slaves as high priority groups???

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