CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Priority Plan Could Cause 100,000 Avoidable Deaths

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) gave its recommended COVID-19 Vaccination Priority plan and it is still wrong. The CDC is ignoring its own science on the most at risk groups.

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that health care personnel and long-term care facility residents be offered COVID-19 vaccination first (Phase 1a).

On December 20, ACIP updated interim vaccine allocation recommendations. In Phase 1b, COVID-19 vaccine should be offered to persons aged ≥75 years and non–health care frontline essential workers, and in Phase 1c, to persons aged 65–74 years, persons aged 16–64 years with high-risk medical conditions, and essential workers not included in Phase 1b.

Frontline medical staff age distribution. About half of the frontline medical staff are below the age of 45. However, the frontline medical staff come in contact with the at risk population.

The second most at risk group 65-74 (5-6 times the risk) are behind 30 million other people. 65-74 have 5-6 times the risk of regular people.

47 million old people should be in the 1a and then the 1b group. The 30 million non-medical staff should be after the most at risk old people and native americans who have five times the risk.

About 90% of the COVID-19 deaths might be prevented by vaccinating the oldest 10% or so of the population. Mixing in people with far lower risk that make up 20-40% of the population will delay getting coverage of the most at risk by months. This means the 3000 deaths per day will continue for an added 60-90 days.

Kathleen Dooling, a public health official at the CDC, gave a presentation to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that 87 million essential workers should get the vaccine before older Americans. Essential workers include bankers, movie crews, teachers and supermarket cashiers. Prioritizing essential workers and not at higher risk medical workers over the elderly would increase the overall number of deaths by between 0.5% and 6.5%.

The CDC and the ACIP prioritized 87 million “essential workers” because racial and ethnic minority groups are underrepresented among people over 65.

The CDC plan will not be a “fast deployment” scenario for vaccination. Fast deployment means we target the 47 million most at risk first with the most vaccine and drop the death rate rapidly from January through March, 2021. The CDC plan will mean a less sharp decline that will take until June. This will result in over 100,000 additional, avoidable deaths.

We are scaling up to about 10 million vaccines per week in about 3 weeks. In about 4 months we could have 20 million vaccines per week.

This policy is like the March, 2020 order to put infected seniors back into New York nursing homes. The action in March caused needless excess deaths. If this CDC decision stands then not prioritizing real science will cause many avoidable deaths.

30 million essential but young workers in 1b will delay vaccination of those over 75 by about 2 weeks and those 65-74 by 5-10 weeks. mixing in 101 million other people will delay vaccinating all of the 65-74 by another 5-8 weeks.

SOURCES- CDC, Lancet, Persuasion community, Worldometers, healthdata.org
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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