Nextbigfuture found cost of living data indicating that China’s purchasing power parity economy is about $31 trillion. This is 30% larger than official estimates and is 50% larger than the $21 trillion US economy. In a decade or two China’s currency will strengthen to a value that matches its purchasing power level.
Japan reached per capita income levels equal to the people in the UK. This is about 70% of the per capita level of the USA. The USA will also have immigration and population growth to 400-450 million people in the mid-21st century. China’s per capita income should double relative slower-growing US and European economies over the next twenty years.
The USA will retain military superiority for several decades, especially with SpaceX Starships as reusable hypersonic weapons platforms. Large scale military conflict will be avoided. Other than economic competition and the occasional trade war, there will mainly be a peaceful future.
China could reach double or even 2.5 times the GDP of the USA. However, this will not exceed the combined economies of the USA, EU, UK, Japan, Australia and India.
Below are middle-class spending levels based on official purchasing power calculations. I think China’s PPP spending levels are $9.5 trillion.
Consumer spending power is a key aspect of global economic power. China is on track to get to about $8 trillion (regular exchange rate) in consumer spending in 2021. The US will have about $14 trillion in consumer spending. Purchasing power-wise China’s consumer spending is already $16 trillion.
China’s demographics are not good because of the one-child policy. China global economic share will peak around 2050 at around 20-25% of the world. In the second half of the 20th century India, ASEAN and other developing nations will develop and global economic share will closely match population share. China in 2100 will be about 10-15% of the world economy. 1.2 billion out of 12 billion.
SOURCES- Brookings, Wikipedia
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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