Loup Ventures, Gene Munster is a long-time Tesla bull and has also been correct on Big Tech. Gene has set a new three-year price target of $2500 for Tesla. This would put Tesla at a $2.3 trillion valuation. This would be $12,500 before the five-way split in the share price.
A side observation is that Larry Ellison is CEO of Oracle and Larry has 15 million shares (1.7% of Tesla). If Tesla reaches $4000 and Oracle stayed flat then Larry’s Tesla shares would surpass the value of his nearly one-third ownership of Oracle.
I, Brian Wang, have been a Tesla shareholder for years.
July 2021, Tesla’s [share price] Run is Not Over.
Here is what I said and predicted 5 months ago.
Let me skip over the
* wonderful technology,
* the growing technology lead in batteries, electronics and software and
* the great financial model that they will continue to scale.
Apple was up 20 times in 2006 from 1997. Apple still went up 20 times from that point. The iPhone was introduced in 2007.
I equate the Model 3 to the iPod. The Model S and X are like the iMac and MacBook.
The Model Y and the Cybertruck are like iPhone’s and iPads. The products do not perfectly match up but you get the idea.
In 3 years, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon will be $3 trillion companies. Tesla will be up far closer to those levels.
My three-year price target in the range of $3 trillion was six months before Gene Munster of Loup Ventures.
This was calling a $900+ Tesla share price by April, 2021. I made that prediction four months ago.
Tesla is around $650 per share now in after-hours trading today.
A source is CNBC interview of Gene Munster and reviewing my, Brian Wang, analysis and predictions.
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Indeed, it doesn't as long as growth is aimed towards complete market dominance (aka attracting capital). But, the competition is getting worse (Zoe has took over tesla in EU already), others also breathing to the back. At some point profits must emerge still, or else the hype will fade soon.
“By the time the reserve assets are privatized, helium shortage 3.0 will
be in the rearview mirror . . . and helium supply should be plentiful.”
The loons can be strung over oceans' shipping lanes. Sats cover oceans too. But more.
The fact is that you can't have these all the way across the oceans and such, so they will have to relay information into the normal system using wires and optical fiber. The only thing they are removing is "the last mile", as such, the system will have much more latency than a LEO satellite system.
And we still have all these other issues I mentioned. Those balloons definitely look like helium balloons. There is not enough helium. There is enough helium for just 10,000 of these balloons a year…if they got 100% of the helium produced.
While helium is abundant in the Solar System it is not very plentiful on Earth. We already have random shortages. We did have a helium reserve system, but that was defunded: https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/helium/federal-helium-program
At the moment we have what we need because of Covid-19 but helium is normally in short supply:
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20200605a/full/
That too. Loud.
The plastic seats are actually much preferred to sitting in urine: https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/music/port-authority-changing-up-seats-on-new-buses/vp-BB10EzL7
I love this scene:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfCpDQKHcUw
And some stupid judge in California made it illegal to ask if a dog is a seeing eye dog…the only dogs officially permitted in many places. Now it is dogs everywhere, supermarket, big box stores, restaurants, planes… And not just the well trained ones. I have seen them pooping on the floors.
Wow. American buses sound horrible.
A lack of profits dont really matter as long as it's growth related.
Thanx for response! I was pretty careful to "good cars" Tesla. It is the Mars v O'Neill related batteries v H and/or power beaming that I question, for larger (Space!) considerations than cars alone. Tesla H cars will be an option I presume, just a battery car with a big charger. Power beaming, as Criswell describes ppg 12-13, is not a technical issue, once military starts using it for emergency or remote, and assigns frequency. Huge implications. All Loon has to do is get close and the space junk and astronomer problems will tilt the scale. I want Musk to join in and make it in the Space economy! Except for science, forget Mars. SN8 about to launch!
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2009/70070criswell/ndx_criswell.pdf.html
I have been making great money with my Tesla shares. I want to help my readers join in on a generational stock. But if I can't convince you, I still do fine. Elon has $150B in net worth and could be days from passing Bezos. How many hydrogen fuel cell cars are there? I will help you. 18000 per year globally. Versus now 3 million full battery electric cars. Where is power beaming happening? Starlink has northern hemisphere deployment and millions signing up for beta. Google Loon has had some toy deployments in Puerto Rico and I think Kenya.
You could have made the same argument for Amazon in 2015. No earnings.
You would have missed out on 7 times your money over 5 years. Your analysis talked yourself out of buying Amazon. You talked yourself out of buying Apple. You talked yourself out of buying Tesla for the last 10 years. Not buying Tesla from the IPO cost you 100X. And now buying Tesla last year cost you 10X. Look just a bit deeper into the financials. Look at that growing auto margin. It is a growth company.
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/4E7BR9_TSLA_Q3_2020_Update_P0Q85U.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q3-2020-Update.pdf%22
Tesla is growing at 50% year over year and has been growing at that rate for 7+ years. Earlier growth even higher. In 2014, Tesla said they would make 500k cars in 2020 and that is what is happening. Amazon did not make consistent profit until 2016. Amazon had 30-40% annual growth.
Tesla making 200k cars in Q4 of this year. $50K per car. That is $10b in one quarter. $28B in annual car revenue, $32B in total revenue. 32% revenue growth in a Pandemic year. $44B if fourth quarter repeated each quarter in 2021. However, Tesla is ramping Model Y in 2021 in China and adding Berlin and Texas in Q2. 1.3 to 1.5M cars in 2021. Lets call is 1.4M, $50k per car. $70B in car revenue and $6B in other revenue in 2021. China 1M cars in 2022 other factories ramped. 2.5M cars in 2022 even without 2 new factories. 3-3.5M with more factories. $110B in car revenue with cheaper avg car price in 2022. $160-200B in revenue in 2023. $30B net income. 100 PE. But forward PE against 2024 would be 50-60PE.
Have considered the very tiny trike thingys that could drive up onto self driving sled thingys thru some reasonable interface, and go thru any system thingy.
Check out loon dot com. My question is whether the latency thru thin atmos plus slightly shorter distance than LEO will make up for vacuum latency. Also, big He finds in Eastern Europe, and plenty in space. I am not selling Loon, but they can navigate those suckers!
The only things that stand out to me as profoundly dubious are: $10,000 for self-driving, and driverless cars picking people up. There is a reason buses are so unpleasant with hard plastic seats and such. People trash things that don't belong to them if others are not watching. Just a subset, but sufficient to spoil everything for everyone else. Vomit, dog diarrhea, used condoms, urine, lice, crabs, scabies, bedbugs, scab goo, athlete's foot, snot, phlegm, sweat, used tissues, body odor, pubic hair, and zit puss. Then there are cigarettes put out in their seats, knife marks, boot marks on the back of the seats, kids with markers or crayons, rotting baby bottle milk, and gum. Lots of stuff on shoes: mud, cat/dog poop, cow/horse paddies, mildew, and sewage. I project these things will sour people on how great it is to have their cars turning tricks all night. The first thing they will do is blind the camera. Cars taking off before you have your bag or your toddler will be fun too. Even if there is video evidence they they will claim "deepfake", as that will be easier and easier to do. And scammers will be using deepfake to scam.
I am a big fan of tunnels, but I have to admit the way he is doing that is questionable. When tunnels are small, that leaves less room for air to get around the vehicle as it goes forward. This means increased drag or slower than projected speeds. Also questionable is how cars get in and out of the system. That rate looks like a major bottleneck.
Independently conceived of a LEO Internet satellite net in 1991.
The beauty is that it is global. I envisioned it somewhat differently. I thought it should be a government project, and free to US residents while the rest of the World would pay for acess, but at a price just sufficent to suport the system and developed countries paying more. No gouging, or I fugured it would lead to several compeating networks and potential accidents with so many satolites up there.
Of course, our political system is inept, and would not do something like this. But I had hopes to change that too.
There can be no doubt that a LEO Internet satellite system is superior to a network of balloons:
1.There is not much helium available. Sufficient for today's needs for party balloons, weather balloons, extreme cooling needs, but quite insufficient for half a million little blimps. Hydrogen is viable but leaks even more readily, and is banned for blimps/airships in the countries that would be able to pay for the service.
2.The cost of mantaining all those ballons would be staggering, hazardous over cities and involve periodic service interruption/slowdowns.
3.With reduced altitude you need 50x more balloons than satellites.
4.Vulnerable: weather/idiots with guns (inevitable crashes into freeways).
5.Aircraft hazard.
6.All these blinking red lights in the sky will aggravate.
7.Coverage will be limited to the cities, no rural or ocean coverage.
When he IS right. Won't hold my breath for Mars. Nor for batteries, long term. When will Musk admit HE is wrong about O'Neill? When people want more experimental racks on ISS? edit: you HAVE read "The High Frontier" by Gerard K. O'Neill, I sincerely hope, for your sake. Don't want to humiliate ourselves, do we?
…and the profitability. Net income margins:
Apple: 20%
Microsoft: 30%
Tesla:~0%
Its like comparing Venezuela to Saudi Arabia.
If 90 % of the cars will be electric cars will not have batteries but will run like trolleys or eletric busses taking power from power lines in the same way as when 90% of the people stopped using coaches we rebuilt our roads infrastructure to exploit the new car tech (imagine telling someone in the 19th century that we would spend billions of dollars in paving even minor roads and we would get rid of all the post exchange stations to change horses). Batteries for cars are a temporary solution during the infrastructure transition. It will probably be good for tesla fot few years, but there is no reason to accelerate and decelerate several hundreds pounds (or kilograms) of batteries if you can avoid the batteries altogether
So when do you admit that he was right and you were wrong? When 90% of new cars are battery elecric? When there is one million people living on Mars? What is the threshold?
Musk, IMHO: Wrong about Mars v O'Neill, wrong about Moon, wrong about ISRU (except on Mars), wrong about Space Solar, wrong about H fuel cells v batteries, wrong about power beaming v batteries. Good cars, but a big, tough market. Balloons rather than Starlink. Great rockets!
2019 Revenue
Apple: $260.17 billion
Microsoft: $125 billion
Amazon: $280.5 billion
Tesla: $24.6 billion
What do you predict Tesla's revenue will be to justify its valuation of $3T?