Economic sanctions have cut Iran’s oil production in half and dropped oil exports to less than 20% of normal. Iran’s oil production is currently below 2 million barrels per day and Iran has about 300,000 barrels per day of oil exports.
US independent producer Pioneer Natural Resources chief executive Scott Sheffield expects Iran returning to oil exports as an early 2022 event. He sees this as mid-2022 for Iran to bring on 1.5mn-2mn b/d of exports.
2 million barrels per day of additional global oil supply is enough to swing the marginal price of oil from $60 per barrel to $30 per barrel. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will likely initiate a price war to force other oil suppliers to shoulder more of the oil production cuts and to make Iran minimize its re-entry into global oil markets.
Currently, there is an oversupply of oil. OPEC and Russia have negotiated a delicate agreement to cut oil production to support prices.
Saudi Arabia had to launch an oil price war in 2020 against Russia to work out the terms of the oil production cut. Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional enemies and oil competitors. The last time sanctions were lifted there was also an oil price war with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
SOURCES – Tradeeconomics, Reuters, Argus Media
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
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