3.2 Million Electric Car Sold in 2020

EV-Volumes reports 3.2 million electric cars were sold in 2020. This was BEV (battery electric vehicles and PHEV (plus in hybrid vehicles) sales of 3.24 million.
The 2021 estimate for BEV and PHEV sales is 4.6 million electric cars.

The EV-volumes.com data showed the five highest national sales were in China (1.3m), Germany (0.4m), the US (0.3m). Europe combined sales of EVs passed China.

In the USA, Tesla had 79.4% of the BEV registrations. Tesla had 200,561 registrations in 2020 (up 16.3%, compared to 172,438 in 2019). That’s 1.4% of the total car market. The total US BEV registrations in 2020 was 252,548 (up 11.1% year-over-year, from 227,161 in 2019). The US 76,000 plug-in hybrid sales in 2020.

If the PHEV market in the rest of the world matches the USA, then BEV are now 76-77% of the BEV-PHEV market.

Tesla would have 20.1% of the global BEV market in 2020.

They are projecting 41% overall market growth in EV. Tesla is expecting over 50% growth in 2021. If this is the case then Tesla would grow global market share.

If Tesla produces 750,000 cars in 2021 and there is a 3.5 million car BEV market in 2021 then Tesla would have 21.4% global market share.
If Tesla produces 1 million cars in 2021 and there is a 4 million car BEV in 2021 then Tesla would have a 25% global market share.

SOURCES- EV Volumes
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

14 thoughts on “3.2 Million Electric Car Sold in 2020”

  1. 1. Amzn – sells EVERYTHING, TSLA – sells cars – i.e. significant risk reduction
    2. PE (TTM) 78 vs 1221
    3. PE (F) 49 vs 144
    4. EV/EBITDA 24 vs 176
    5. ROE 27% vs 5.4%
    6. Earnings growth 121% vs 157%
    7. PEG (5yr) 1.71 vs 6.4

    By virtually all measures except earnings growth Amzn is significantly better value & a safer investment than TSLA (even looking at it long term).
    From the Dutch Tulip bubble of the 1630s to the Dot Com bubble of 2000
    valuations reached ridiculous heights. Non-one can predict when the bubble with burst, but when they occur everyone says its obvious in hindsight.

    Can the price of TSLA go higher – absolutely. It just means there is a bigger fall to come OR the possibility of future returns are significantly diminished.

    Analogy – Comparing Amzn to TSLA is like comparing the price of fruit to the price of an orange. An orange can go down or up in price and there are many competitors. Amzn sells everything so when orange prices go down it is protected by the prices of the other fruit it sells.

    Companies like Amzn and GOOG are significantly safer bets in this environment and, assuming this technological revolution continues, have significantly higher prospects for a safer and better ROI.

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  2. Amazon had a PE ratio of 3600 in 2012 and PE ratio of 500-900 in 2014. PE ratio of 500-700 in 2015. PE 150-250 from 2016-2018 and now about PE of 80. Did you expect Amazon to make ROI in 2012? 2013 ? 2014? 2015?
    amazon stock price in 2012 about $250 now it is $3300. So more than 10X from a really huge PE.

    If Tesla makes 100 GWh in batteries in 2022 that would be as many batteries as CATL this year. CATL is valued at $150 Billion. A new business that Tesla does not have right now but is building at Kato road in Fremont and Texas and Berlin.

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  3. More than 100 million vehicles are sold annually. There is still room for a lot of growth in the EV market. All of it won't go to Tesla. Tesla is weak in the lower end of the market. Tesla doesn't have buses or vans. And Tesla will have strong competition at the luxury end of the market. Even saying this, I could see Tesla growing revenues 10 to 20 times over the next twenty years.

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  4. From your link:

    Underlying reason is the fact that plug-in hybrid vehicles often are not recharged regularly. Statistically, private users of vehicles in Germany re-charge their plug-in hybrid vehicle only on three out of four days. Company car users, on average, re-charge only every second day. The low frequency of recharging reduces the share of electric driving and thereby increases fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of plug-in hybrid vehicles in real-world driving. 

    Well, if you don't plug in the plug-in hybrid, then the plug-in bit doesn't work.

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  5. Look at the final paragraph.

    Just in case it does get edited:

    If Tesla produces 750,000 cars in 2021 and there is a 3.5 million car BEV market in 2021 then Tesla would have 21.4% global market share.

    If Tesla produces 1 million cars in 2021 and there is a 3 million car BEV in 2021 then Tesla would have a 25% global market share.

    So, 750 000/3.5 million = 0.214. OK

    1 million/3 million = 0.33 oops…

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  6. Is this making the argument that you wont get your money back if they do not grow (based on current numbers like they are a non growing entity)?

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  7. I think it's totally unrealistic to predict "This was BEV (battery electric vehicles and PHEV (plus in hybrid vehicles) sales of 3.24 million.
    The 2021 estimate for BEV and PHEV sales is 4.6 million electric cars."
    when
    "Global electric car sales finished December 2020 with over 500,000 sales for the month, up 105% on December 2019, with a market share of 6.9% for December 2020"

    Considering all the many tail winds for EC vehicles, will December 2020 sales really slow down so very much so that total 2021 BEV and PHEV sales will only be a puny 4.6 million?

    Reply
  8. Following from DrPat's comments – Tesla PE ~1250, EV/EBITDA ~ 180
    Ave human investable lifespan = 50 years
    When do people expect to make a ROI?
    Misquoting Shakespeare – bubble, bubble, toil & trouble – he really was a futurist!

    Reply

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