The Bank of America global analyst predicts that China will sustain an average 4.7% annual GDP growth from now to 2035 which will result in a doubling of China’s GDP. Qiao predicts that China’s GDP will pass the US GDP in 2027-2028.
China’s GDP is currently 30% less than the USA. China (including HK and Macua) has an exchange rate GDP of $16 trillion while the US has $21 trillion.
2021 is expected to be an economic recovery year for the US and China. The US could have 4-6% GDP growth and China could have 8-9% GDP growth.
The US could return to averaging 2% GDP growth per year after 2021. The difference in GDP growth from 2028 to 2035 will likely reduce to an average of 0-2% per year. The US GDP would only be about 5-15% less than China in 2035. Fluctuations in currency exchange could have China and the US trading places as the largest economy from 2026-2031.
China’s demographics will get worse after 2035. If the US had a strong and successful immigration system and was successful capitalizing on technology, then the USA and China would stay closely matched economies to 2050.
China would need to make the megacity-megaregion plan work. This could enable China to get another 30-50% more per capita GDP. Creating connections where Shanghai and the surrounding area becomes a connected 250 million to 350 million person super city, Beijing area becomes a super city would enable China to sustain 5% GDP growth for many decades.
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com