Bank of America Qiao Forecasts China Will Double GDP by 2035

The Bank of America global analyst predicts that China will sustain an average 4.7% annual GDP growth from now to 2035 which will result in a doubling of China’s GDP. Qiao predicts that China’s GDP will pass the US GDP in 2027-2028.

China’s GDP is currently 30% less than the USA. China (including HK and Macua) has an exchange rate GDP of $16 trillion while the US has $21 trillion.

2021 is expected to be an economic recovery year for the US and China. The US could have 4-6% GDP growth and China could have 8-9% GDP growth.

The US could return to averaging 2% GDP growth per year after 2021. The difference in GDP growth from 2028 to 2035 will likely reduce to an average of 0-2% per year. The US GDP would only be about 5-15% less than China in 2035. Fluctuations in currency exchange could have China and the US trading places as the largest economy from 2026-2031.

China’s demographics will get worse after 2035. If the US had a strong and successful immigration system and was successful capitalizing on technology, then the USA and China would stay closely matched economies to 2050.

China would need to make the megacity-megaregion plan work. This could enable China to get another 30-50% more per capita GDP. Creating connections where Shanghai and the surrounding area becomes a connected 250 million to 350 million person super city, Beijing area becomes a super city would enable China to sustain 5% GDP growth for many decades.

Written By Brian Wang,

41 thoughts on “Bank of America Qiao Forecasts China Will Double GDP by 2035”

  1. Meh. Better nobody. No world leader. Every time one nation gets ideas and starts pushing other people around, it's always trash. That's why I'm always thinking, "Alliance, no head nation. Especially not China or the U.S. or a government with religious law."

    Yeah, I know, cutting out a LOT of people, but cry me a river.

  2. You know what is the impact of your comment on the rise of China?
    I` ll tell you: zero

    Just saying


  3. True.
    But they arent going to succeed Vittorio.
    China is growing 3x fast than the US
    China is creaming the US
    E noi poveri italiani tra poco inizieremo a cambiare il culo che lecchiamo
    Tedeschi -> USA -> Cina

    Just saying (lo sto solo dicendo!)


  4. "This means that a handful of white guys are smarter than one billion people. "
    No, you racist p.rick!
    It just means that whites had the supremacy.
    Now its over
    Soon China will rule

    Just saying.


  5. As soon as I saw "Kehvan" in the comments I took a even harder pass.
    Hail to the Trump-tard

    Just saying..


  6. Wow a billion people! Could have sworn China only reached 1 billion people in the 1980s, thanks for the correction.

  7. Boosting computing power won't boost innovation, likewise a billion dollar supercomputer can't innovate as good as human wetware

    they can do big number maths, but can't write a good movie script or make a pop music song

    The chinese are smart the same way as excel workbooks are smart good at memorizing and doing math, but little ability to think creatively

    This is why Europeans will always be on top, the European mind is unmatched in creativity all the best music, movies, art, innovation are all europeans

  8. Chicken vs Egg,

    If the chinese had the creativity they would have developed before the west after all they outnumbered europeans all through history 10 to 1

    Yet it was the Europeans that figured out how to mass produce steel, generate electricity and bring themselves out of the dark ages and this was despite being outnumbered 10 to 1

  9. I am sceptical of that theory
    In case of China at least lets wait until they'll become developed country, high income (this or next year) You can't expect tons of highest quality science, tech output from developing, with low per capita country.

    When China will become high income, will have budgets comparable with the West, then lets judge their innovations, scientific publications etc

  10. Most of those innovators, entrepreneurs, scientists lived in western world after Industrial Revolution. West was already rapidly developing, was the richest all that time(still is) by huuuge margin, had its scientific revolution, China not.
    I am not an expert in history, but China had its equivalent only in late XX century. All that time when West was at the top, China was worlds poorest country in per capita, country of basically a billion farmers and simple laborers. Almost no scientists and extremely small budget for science compared to West all that time. They were so far behind, that they are still in rapid catch up process, but at the end of it. I would say, judging by their speed of development and current tech and science sophistication they will catch up later this year or next year.
    China is just starting, you can say year 1 for China (in modern post industrial revolution era) is 2021, because by some measures they'll become high income country this year.

  11. "Whites will always be on top its a simple matter of genetics, only superior genetics can produce superman.", You need to watch back the Six Million Dollar Man and Iron Man.

    Bionics/Brain chips/NeuraLink FTW.

  12. One false assumption, China has always been the most numerous country

    Yet when you look at human history 97% of all histories greatest scientists and innovators are all white

    Pick up any highschool physics textbook all white guys like maxwell, tesla, newton, gauss

    In fact despite numbering in billions, there has been no chinese equivalent to guys like Feynman, Maxwell, Einstein, Tesla, Gauss, Newton etc…

    This means that a handful of white guys are smarter than one billion people.

    It doesn't matter how many engineers and scientists they produce, they can't produce any geniuses

    Whites will always be on top its a simple matter of genetics, only superior genetics can produce superman

    Unless they start capturing white men to harvest their DNA, I don't see China being able to innovate they will just keep copying our technology so they will always be one step behind.

    Whites create, Asians copy, Blacks destroy
    hey just find the amazing content in you website and get the useful information from your website.

  13. They build up entire cities that are completely empty, these empty buildings then slowly collapse due to shoddy construction.

    Chinese GDP is just smoke and mirrors, its a made up number that they write on a piece of paper. Its a massive bubble of printing more money and faking economic growth

  14. This is easy.

    By 2035 I predict that we will all be megabillionaires and aliens from all over the galaxy will be flocking here to tend our estates.

    It doesn't take much. This guesstimating stuff doesn't even have to make sense, and it can totally ignore any data or trends that might invalidate it.

  15. Not going to happen. It is appropriate that it is Covid that destroyed China and the rest of the worlds last opportunity to recover. Demographics cannot be denied and were in the last year's of when consumption was possible for a lot of countries. Without consumers what is China going to export?

  16. Doubtful. There is a "Great Depression" awaiting China. I fully expect the government to over correct and make it a lot worse than it would have been. My reason for believing this is that nothing rises forever. And that during periods of growth a lot of dead wood accumulates. It takes a recession to eliminate some of it.

  17. "Todays economy is not about number of hands, laborers doing physical work. It's about number of innovations…"

    Moving from the low end of the value chain to the high end is where everyone should be going, this latest China obsession is all about that. A lot of Americans are only capable of functioning in the low end of the value chain, even their clued in controlling patrons are laughably demanding China should stay out of the high end of the chain and be content with their traditional place at the low end.
    Crying about the good old days will not change the inexorable progression into the future, a yearly attrition rate of 2.5M off the top guarantees that.

  18. Everything that the US is doing at the moment seeems to be aimed at slowing China's rise. If China becomes old before it becomes rich, it wouldn't wage a war against the West, but would rather choose to collaborate. Sharing this planet is better than the ultimate global conflict.

    Since a lot of people here seems to really care about this topic, I'd recommend this book:

  19. ghost cities? another ignorant comment from a guy who is educating himself reading rubbish media like BBC. China builds differently, all those so called ghost cities from 2000-2019 are full now, just as everyone who knew what was going on, predicted.
    And guess what, they are still building new cities, because tens of millions more people are migrating from rural areas to cities.

  20. you're projecting West's ways of doing things onto China. You obviously don't know much about China and its culture. China is vastly different from the West. It's not into this silly game of preaching its system in other nations.
    Yes, China will be the richest, most powerful, techologically advanced hyperpower soon but at the same time they won't be policing world using guns or sanctioning others, because someone don't want to become like them.

  21. China has complete sovereignty over its monetary system. They can create money centrally at will. Of course, if their companies can't compete, that is a different problem, but China is growing 1.5X to 2X faster than the U.S., and is well past the point where that can be attributed to it just being a "start up nation," so mostly they are VERY competitive.
    China, still, does not let its currency float completely freely on the international market. If they did, the Yuan would be stronger, not weaker.
    The predictions of a Chinese private debt implosion, are both long and wrong for the simple reason that China can finance whatever debt it needs to, since they have real goods and services that is very highly valued in ANY currency.
    I'm much more worried about the U.S., with its endless scams, rent-seeking schemes, financial engineering and QE4ever, and basic lack of manufactured things that can be valued on the open market. Our bloated military keeps the dollar as the world's currency, but if that fails, the dollar will fall.

  22. Hey, wouldn't you know, it's funny you say that! We almost had that happen in the U.S. here a couple months ago! *grins and shivers* Wasn't that just exciting?! Really, though, most humans are ignorant. Much of the chunk of humanity that does have something close to true freedom takes it for granted and makes only half-hearted attempts to notice people who don't have that freedom.

    BUUUT: nobody deserves an authoritarian government crushing liberty. Never lasts, anyway. Also, it doesn't help. Generating more suffering only perpetuates the cycle of suffering. We need to get to a place of viewing ourselves as a singular species with an alliance that has no specific nation as a leader. Also, no central religion. That'd just be complete trash.

    This is an unpopular opinion, I know, but I feel that any nation with a state religion or any sort of religious rule is doing a disservice to their population, as it quashes freedom. I couldn't care less WHICH religion (I'm spiritual, but neither practice nor adhere to any of the Abrahamic faiths, nor to Buddhism or any other pagan faiths; I AM a witch, though, go figure lol).

    Alas, humans are primates, primates tend toward tribalism, and the [BEEP!] rolls downhill from there. We need to overcome our tribal tendencies. I'm not saying don't cherish culture. I'm just pitching a sort of whole-Earth perspective.

    But here's a question: Is a ruling alliance of nations with no head nation predicated on authoritarian rule?

  23. good, I used to root for the u.s. but 2/3 of the citizens are incredibly ignorant. They deserve an authoritarian government that tramples individual liberty, especially one that is no longer the strongest super power in the world. I will enjoy China calling the shots and telling these Americans when and where to jump. I will enjoy watching all the countries and people who hated the u.s. deal with a much more ruthless country for the next few centuries. Outer space better get Chinas permission, welcome to Pax China and the China Millennium.

  24. It's not happening. 3 out of every 4 new loans in China are to pay interest on existing loans.

    China has 7 Trillion dollars in toxic corporate debt. That bubble will burst.

  25. Bank of America and other Western banks predictions about China were never right, the same with almost all predictions from vatious other kinds of Western institutions. Always underestimating by a LOT.

    By 2035 China GDP will at least triple. How, you ask? Simple, China already has largest number of engineers, scientists and still only around 10% of China's population has higher education. In developed world this number is closer to 40-50% of population. China is graduating 10x more STEM(science, tech, engineering, math) graduates than US, and those numbers are growing, in mid to late 20's they will graduate 15x more annually, because number of graduates is still growing and majority of them choose math, science, technology.

    All those geeky brainpower will increase innovation density in China 5-10x, and advanced tech, innovation will speed up economic growth like we never seen before.

    Todays economy is not about number of hands, laborers doing physical work. It's about number of innovations, AI algorithms. Just one random algorithm can shake up entire industry. More STEM people you have, more those kind of innovations you will have, they will be compounding

    China will shake the world, they will flood the world with science and tech, at this moment they are already everywhere in tech but China is barely starting.

    We will have similar story with India. They will rise even faster than China, because soon they will have even larger STEM population than China.

Comments are closed.