Aviation demand is driven by economic
activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy is the basis for aviation to grow over the long run. The 2020 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.0 percent per year.
System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.5 percent a year between 2020 and 2040. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.3 percent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.0 percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is growing, especially in the regional jet market, where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.
Drone Delivery Might Be 1% of Deliveries by 2030
By 2030 “last mile package delivery” could be profitable at a price point of $4.20 per delivery and may result in around 500 million deliveries annually with a fleet of 40,000. There were 87 billion parcels delivered in 2018 and this was over double the level of 2014. The total global parcel deliveries in 2030 should be about 500 billion to 1 trillion parcels.
There were 387 drone accidents in 2018 in the USA. There were collisions into buildings that caused over $10,000 in damage. There were problems around airports.
There are about 1-2 million lightly used small hobby and recreation drones. A smaller number of professional drones (camera drones for real estate etc..) and a few hundred larger drones for industrial, military and agricultural applications. Last-mile drone delivery would increase the drone fleet by 10-100 times. Drone delivery would increase drone usage by over 1000 times.
Delivery drones will have to outcompete ground based alternatives. If delivery drones have success then the safety problems will have to be solved.
Electric and self-driving trucks will lower the cost of ground delivery by 5-10 times. Nextbigfuture thinks electric self driving trucks and small self driving two and three wheel vehicles will be far more popular for all deliveries including last mile deliveries.
SOURCES -FAA, Brian Wang analysis
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.