US Passing 500,000 Cumulative Covid Deaths in One Week and Maybe 1 Million This Summer

The US currently records 474,915 deaths from COVID and the seven day average or daily deaths is over 3000 per day. This will likely update to about 476,000 deaths by the end of the day Feb 7, 2021.

UPDATE – adjusted for variance between IHME and Worldometers reporting of death totals on Jan 29.

Feb 12 UPDATE – There are updated numbers and a comparison of the top 8 forecasting models.

The global seven day rolling average of daily deaths is over 12,000 per day. The world currently records 2.327 million deaths from COVID. By the end of February, 2021 there will be over 2.5 million deaths from COVID.

The University of Washington model was updated at the end of January, 2021. It under-predicted deaths from Jan 30-Feb 7.

On January 29, 2021, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation reported 432000 deaths. IHME forecasted 457,500 deaths on Feb 7, 2021. IHME projected 481,000 deaths by Feb 17.

Worldometers.info recorded 449,000 deaths on Jan 29, 2021 and will be reporting over 476,000 deaths by the end of Feb 7, 2021.

IHME expected 25,000 more deaths in 9 days. Worldometers.info reports over 27,000 deaths in the USA over the last 9 days.

By June 1, 2021, IHME was projecting 600,000 to 700,000 deaths in the USA. This seems to be underestimating the continued progression of the pandemic. The factors of variant spread, vaccine distribution and public compliance with disease avoidance are not going as well as the model expects.

If the additional deaths over the next 100 days had the same under forecasting as the 9-day projection, then we would expect the US to see 270,000 additional deaths instead of 240,000. The USA would be passing 1 million COVID deaths in July-August, 2021.

There was a difference between what IHME counted for Jan 29 and what Worldometers had for Jan 29. This means the 9 day total underprediction might be about 10%. Numbers over the last nine days are coming in higher than the IHME Worse and Variant spread scenarios. They did not expect a 2000+ gap until mid-March between Worse and variant spread against the baseline scenario.

SOURCES- Worldometers, Healthdata.org, Brian Wang analysis
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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