USA and China GDP Estimates for 2020 and 2021

US GDP at the end of 2020 is estimated at $21.48 trillion and China (with Hong Kong and Macua) is estimated at $16.03 trillion.

China reported 2020 GDP at 101.6 trillion yuan. The USD to Chinese Yuan exchange rate is 6.46. China’s GDP is US$15.73 Trillion. If Hong Kong and Macau GDP is added, then China’s GDP is US$16.03 trillion in February 2021. China is forecast to have 8% GDP growth in 2021. If the currency stayed stable then China+Hong Kond and Macua would have US$17.3 trillion GDP at the end of 2021.

The US economy is also expected to recover in 2021. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the US will have 6.8% GDP growth in 2021. The US would have $23.0 trillion GDP at the end of 2021 if Goldman is correct.

The Eurozone GDP declined 6.8% for the bloc in 2020. The EU is expecting about 3.5-4% GDP growth in 2021. The EU without the UK has a GDP of about $15.5 trillion.

SOURCES- NBS national bureau of statistics, Business insider, BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis
Written By Brian Wang,

8 thoughts on “USA and China GDP Estimates for 2020 and 2021”

  1. Refer to Michael Pettis's analysis. (example here, You just cannot compare China's GDP against those used in the rest of the developed world. Very different standards. "The biggest problem is that China’s reported GDP is an input into the economic system, not a measured output". China's GDP input is more of a political tool. The real GDP value is likely to be much less.

  2. Also China is unsustainable as far as their demographic mix. That one child policy killed them. They missed their chance to be a real superpower.
    They will all retire before they become wealthy.

  3. You are right. US 2020 GDP registered negative growth of -3.5%. A drop of USD 0.7-0.8T and it is definitely below 21T in 2020.
    1 USD today is still the same1 USD yesterday or tomorrow used for measuring the US production of domestic goods and services.

  4. " If the currency stayed stable then China+Hong Kond and Macua would have US$17.3 trillion GDP at the end of 2021"

    Yuan will 100% strengthen this year, just like in 2020. I would say China will reach around $18T GDP this year, which means they will also pass $12,5k per capita, which is threshold to be considered high income country.
    At this moment only 15% of world population live in high income countries, when China will join, we will have 33% of global population living in high income countries, which is quite amazing and world changing event if you think about it.

    On the other hand US per capita is closing to $70k per capita, so yes my American friends, you're still nr 1 and China has a loong way to go to catch up


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