World Population in 2100 Mainly Impacted by Family Size in Africa

The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP), the United Nations projected that the world’s population would grow from 7.7 billion in 2019 to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100. These figures are based on the “medium variant” projection, which assumes a decline in fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent.

In 2019, the total population of sub-Saharan Africa, at 1.07 billion, is roughly the same size as the combined populations of Europe and Northern America (1.11 billion in 2019). Despite similar population size, the 36 million births taking place in sub-Saharan Africa each year is three times greater than the 12 million average annual births in Europe and Northern America.

The charts show the annual deaths increasing to 90 million to 120 million in 2060-2100. This is where increases in longevity beyond the baseline UN assumptions could see substantial impact from any cheap and widespread radical life extension technology.

The broader impact of radical life extension occurs if most people received better medicine and lived far longer lives. This life extension would also have to not impact when people have children and how many they have. Life extension that delayed the timing of children has an offset in any potential population increase.

By 2050-2055, the 95 percent prediction intervals suggest a plausible range in the average annual number of births in sub-Saharan Africa from 43 to 62 million.

How early people have their children also has a large impact on future population.

If there was constant fertility then there would be 21 billion people in 2100.

Written By Brian Wang,

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