Actual Versus Forecast COVID for Past and Future Four Weeks

John Hopkins reported 471,567 total US COVID deaths as of February 10, 2021 and reports 514,700 as of March 1, 2021. This was an additional 43,000 deaths over 19 days. The seven-day moving average of daily deaths is still about 2,000 per day in the USA. The March 6, 2021 total cumulative deaths is tracking to 523,000.

The pandemic is tracking towards about the fourth most optimistic forecasting model of 11 major models used by FiveThirtyEight.

The March 6, 2021 projections made on Feb 11, 2021 of cumulative US deaths had a forecasted range from 512K to 546K.

The Feb 24, 2021 projections for March 20, 2021. Johns Hopkins currently reports 507,000 total US COVID deaths on Feb 24. The four middle projections had 536k-541k cumulative deaths for March 20. The four models in the middle of 11 models covered at Fivethirtyeight are forecasting 31,000 to 36,000 new deaths by March 20, 2021.

The updated cumulative US COVID death forecasts to March 27 now range from 535k-562k. This would be 23,000-48,000 additional deaths from March 1. Six of the middle-of-the-road projections are tightly bunched around 546k-555k for March 27. This would be an additional 31000-41000 deaths.

The Los Alamos and the Arizona models have a high-end ranging over 580,000 by March 27. Two of the 11 models have scenarios where the COVID variants cause a surge in cases and deaths in the US by the end of March. Three other models think high-end scenarios over 560,000 deaths are possible.

Two forecasting models (John Hopkins and IHME – Washington) out of eleven are optimistic that US deaths will be below 546k by March 27, 2021.

The end of March through April will show if there is renewed surge from COVID variants in spite of the new vaccines.

SOURCES – John Hopkins, Fivethirtyeight
Written By Brian Wang,