Ark Invest 2025 Bull Case Means Elon Musk Will Be a Trillionaire

Ark Invest manages stock funds totaling over $50 billion in value and is currently has the hottest investment analysis. Ark accurately predicted four years ago that Tesla would reach a $4000 share price (pre-split). Ark’s newest Tesla forecast is that in a bull case Tesla will reach a value of $4000 per share by 2025. If Ark is correct then by 2025, Elon Musk will be a trillionaire.

Elon currently has 241 million shares of Tesla and will get eight more CEO compensation bonuses totaling another 12 million shares.

Elon would have about 253 million shares of Tesla. Elon would probably be deep into the third round of Tesla CEO compensation bonuses.

At $4000 per share, those 253 million shares would be worth $1.012 trillion. Elon’s net worth would also be boosted by the future value of his 54% ownership of SpaceX, 80% share of Boring Company and 90% share of Neuralink.

Fluctuating stock prices this year may have temporarily put Elon down to second or third richest person in the world. However, Elon Musk will clearly become the richest person again and keep that position for decades. Elon Musk will be the world’s first trillionaire and first multi-trillionaire.

Elon will be dominating the car industry, Earth transportation, the energy industry, space, satellites, artificial intelligence, tunneling and infrastructure and brain interfaces. He could also master colonization and development of worlds, asteroids and space industrialization and space mining. He could scoop up the highest value businesses out of all of those areas.

Tesla currently has 70-80% of the US electric car market and over 20% of the global electric car market. If Tesla makes far more electric car factories and more battery factories then they will grow their market share. Tesla is targeting over 3 terawatt-hours per year of batteries by 2030 while the next largest EV battery goal from a carmaker is Volkswagen with 240 gigawatt-hours per year in batteries by 2030. CATL is targeting 1.2 terawatt-hours by 2025 but will be selling most of their batteries to Tesla.

Elon would be surpassing historical industry domination and historical monopolies.

Henry Ford and the Ford Motor Company reached a peak of 50% market share of the auto industry.

Space colonization valuation could surpass the value of the Dutch East India Company ($7.9 trillion) and the Mississippi Company ($6 trillion). The Mississippi was a corporation holding a business monopoly in French colonies in North America and the West Indies.

What if the 16th and 17th century age of colonization companies were driven by a relentless 100-hour per week technological and business genius?

What is the value of getting all vehicles off of fossil fuel and making solar and batteries a dominant form of energy?

What is the value of mastering self-driving vehicles?

What is the value of dragging civilization into new technological ages and into a multi-planet species?

We will find out how much value can be extracted from all of those achievements and it will be multiple trillions.

SOURCES- Ark Invest, Tesla, Dutch Review, Wikipedia
Written By Brian Wang,

21 thoughts on “Ark Invest 2025 Bull Case Means Elon Musk Will Be a Trillionaire”

  1. So the obvious problem is that his children or grandchildren will become the unelected rulers of the earth, and there will not be a thing anyone can do about it, short of violence. By that time violence will not be feasible as sub-lethal weapons will completely dominate any situation, such as high-frequency sound, infrared, or other advanced neural weapons. The oligarch families will have unquestioned power and we can only hope they will be kind.

  2. there isnt a person I could think of that deserves it more. What I love about him is that he will take that money and use it do great things and these great things, while great for humanity , will make him even wealthier. Perfect cycle for a human being with great aspirations. Only hope now is that the main has many decades of great health ahead of him

  3. We do this already and it leads to echo chambers, birds of a feather and all that. The cancel culture people find each other. The racist find each other. The Qanon people find each other. The "Election was Stolen" people. They move to places where they are the majority to enforce those subjects and views. They build a culture there and are mined be those who seek to gain from them, for political or monetary purposes. That's what social media has done.

    The tech futurist people come here and places like Ars Technica.
    That's why I'm here, I can't stand to listen to people with low IQ and uneducated views.

  4. Yes being the first doesn't always mean being on top forever, look no further than all of the silicon valley companies that got slaughtered by Japan, Korea and Taiwan

  5. People buy stocks if they believe they can sell it for higher than inflation

    A stock valuation has little to do with anything or actual value

    And yes if you look at revenue, assets, profit, expenses they are indeed overvalued

    Likewise gme currently is at 100-200 despite losing money for the past 10 straight years, and currently with no path to profitability

    AMD for example in 2015 was on the brink of bankruptcy and the shares were literally worth less than $2 and now they are worth over $90 in 2020

    In 2005 they were worth $40

    Also the people who work at ARK will obviously try to pump up stocks that they own

    Meanwhile annualized returns for ARK

    ARKK – 23.02%
    ARKQ – 13.88%
    ARKW – 29.22%
    ARKG – 12.70%

  6. If he makes that money he deserves it. He will join the ranks of other great people who changed the paradigm like Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie and Cornelius Vanderbilt. These men embraced new technologies, changed the very fabric of the societies they lived in and expanded the capabilities of their fellow men/women in ways that are so wide ranging as to be hard to quantify fully. They earned their money, and so did Elon Musk. Here's to gaining a thousand more just like them.

  7. About 10 years ago they projected Musk would be a trillionaire by 2026. I suppose he's still on target or slightly ahead.

  8. What you can do to achieve this is to have a complaint system, where someone breaks the rules or whatever and the site records various infractions. There would be a rating next to the username. People could engage or ignore this person as much as they desire.
    You could also filter out people with infractions for racism, false claims, or whatever other category of infraction. Make a list of everything that triggers people.
    This way that person still has the right to free speech, but I have the right not to listen to him if I find his content offensive.
    Instead of Instagram censoring someone for content that "might be considered offensive" (very broad and nebulous definition) I will instead screen people for things I actually do find to be offensive. Other people might enjoy whatever rants and raves that guy makes so they choose not to screen him out.

    Free speech wins. My personal offense list wins.
    Censorship loses. Cancel culture loses.

  9. I have a little bit of ARKG, the genomics fund. I do not have any ARKK because I directly invest in Tesla. I have 50X in Tesla compared to how much ARKG I have. There are like 200 youtube videos on the Ark Invest report. Why is there a lot of focus on the Ark Invest report and analysis ? Because they correctly called Tesla going to $4000 when Tesla was trading at $200. They did this with accurate models and research that explained exactly how Tesla's business model works. They called Tesla improvement in capital expenditure. They used Wright's law to explain exactly and model the percentage improvement in margin.

    It is not like picking winning lottery numbers. They are explaining the current and past and future business.

    Their models and sensitivity analysis says exactly where Tesla's revenues, income and stock price go based upon major scenarios.

    As a futurist, I follow and imagine "the What could happen", but also try to get "why" , "when", and "how" and the "Who" in detail. Ark called What, Why, who, when and how in detail four years before and it happened exactly as stated.

  10. Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple have out performed the Nasdaq for over 20 years. They are about half of the value of the Nasdaq 100. Is all of Tech a bubble a multi-decade bubble?

    Was the original Industrial revolution a fad? Are all "developed" countries about to revert to the mean?

    What is representative of the economy?

    Tesla IPOd over ten years ago.

  11. growth stocks that outperform their respective indices by a few fold or more are popularity phenomena, cultish enterprises, and daytrader hobbies. The stock market is little better than a grand game of poker, once the initial investment (entry fee) has been excuted. Not to say that one should not partake, but one should not confuse such an institution as noble, representative of the economy, or a valuable means of providing essential resource flow to our system's critical industries. It is the Game of Houses – Reddit, Hedge, Robin Hood, etc..

  12. "He could also master colonization and development of worlds, asteroids
    and space industrialization and space mining. He could scoop up the
    highest value businesses out of all of those areas. . . . .into a multi-planet species?" Please note that settlement of Space itself, as per O'Neill, is not actually included, but *getting warm*. Planet chauvinism?

  13. He certainly won't fall into poverty soon, but I doubt he will become trillionaire.
    Competition is coming fast, many already came, attractive EVs from European, Chinese, Japanese, Korean brands as good if not better than Tesla, Tesla Full Self Driving tech so far, as first tests on YT show is a disaster. Tesla is not that advanced in achieving robotic cars as they claimed all that time. Maybe even it won't be possible without lidar or until 2027- 2030.
    Tesla cars are already becoming old and not that futuristic. I am not saying, Tesla will collapse, but they won't dominate market. The same in rocket industry, I believe China, Russia, EU(govs and startups) will build their reusable rockets quite quickly, and therefore SpaceX won't have monopoly for a long time. Boring company 'futuristic mode of transportation' is just car driving with plastic wheels in a bumpy tunnel, I do not see anything new, attractive and futuristic here. Neuralink competitors also exist and new are being created and so far Neuralink didn't show anything that wasn't done before (reading brain activity of animals). Because of disruptive nature of technological progress all those businesses will probably be disrupted in this decade. Disruption is accelerating.
    In general, Musk overpromises, underdelivers and people started to notice and are starting getting annoyed (including myself) who was blind, naive believer in the past

  14. ARK funds are predominantly all growth funds therefore they are having a great run. When (some say if) the tables turn I suspect their performance will return to what it was like in in 2014-2018 = average rather than what it is now which is in top 10th percentile.

    The growth of the stocks is part of the 4th Industrial revolution .. you can not mathematically using backwards price information calculate extreme change, you either believe as does ARK (and I and clearly Brian Wang) that such change is coming or you do not .. If it is not ARK will be wrong its shares will fall back if they are correct then they will be right and their picks will bound forward.
    Value stocks would in many cases then be a misnomer as their `value` is destroyed.
    Its belief or not in the 4th Industrial and you cant P.E that, betimes the P/E makes sense you have missed the best bit of the bet.

  15. In the last 5 years we have the following share price changes:
    DJIA up 87%; AMZN up 446%; ARKK up 545%; TSLA up 1400%
    Generally, "growth" stocks have outperformed "value" stocks over the last 10 years
    (esp since 2008 crash)
    TSLA valuation is a very contentious issue with presentations for continuation of its growth to extreme overvaluation.
    I know one thing for certain, the probability of continual growth and profitability decreases the more overvalued a company is. Think of it in the same way the Shiller PE ratio predicts future market returns.
    I haven't done the analysis &, if anyone with the data could post it that would be great, to show what the risk-adjusted rate of return P/E, EV/EBITDA would be for TSLA.
    ARK funds are predominantly all growth funds therefore they are having a great run. When (some say if) the tables turn I suspect their performance will return to what it was like in in 2014-2018 = average rather than what it is now which is in top 10th percentile.
    Unless someone can provide a detailed RISK-ADJUSTED return that is significantly higher than AMZN I will put my money in AMZN.
    (1st rule of investment – DO NOT LOSE MONEY)

  16. Now if he could just launch a successful new social media platform that was truly neutral and stopped all aggressive language and threats, and yet somehow avoided censorship. Something completely open source and transparent. Something stunning that makes money not by targeted adverts, but with a $19/mo subscription plan.

    If anyone can do it, Musk can…

  17. For reference Brian, while you have publicly disclosed owning shares of Tesla (and even the private shares of SpaceX, which is pretty impressive), do you have investments in Ark Invest managed funds? I realize they make the more convenient bull cases to show others regarding Tesla, but it seems like you've been posting a lot of Ark Invest related posts lately. I suspect they are the best sourced investment news regarding Tesla so it's natural to gravitate towards them for sourcing articles, but some people might get the wrong idea.

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