Ark Invest is forecasting that EV car batteries will drop in price by 28% for every doubling of EV cars produced. Ark forecasts that a suitable electric vehicle will drop from about $30000 now to $18000 in 2025. Tesla will likely start producing a $25000 EV in 2022-2023. This will likely be a slightly more econo-box version than the Model 3. A lot of the $1500 a year cost reduction will come from the lowering of battery costs. The learning curve from producing more electric cars will also reduce the cost of other components and factory process and design improvements will also reduce costs.
It will take 20-30 years to achieve a more mature EV cost structure. Larger EV battery packs will drop from $10000 to about $2000. A 300 mile range EV could cost $12000 in 2030 and $8000 in 2040.
SOURCES- Ark Invest, Solving the Money Problem
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Not cheaper. Just a lot neater.
I would suggest ASX:AVZ for the best lithium holding in the world – by quantity and quality.
charging costs is about a tenth of gasoline… equivalent. home charging is a true luxury when you drive an bev.
I think the worry is, if it can be done, a none electric car will have very little value at all.
but first of all, a $25000 car is really 30k by the time it is real, and the software driving bit will be a monthly subscription… $100~$300 a month
kind of limited by where the coils run. do they run up to your garage and into your house? or out to grandpas's farm?
long term, Tesla is still a a baby
I agree that no battery at all approach (or a very limited battery like 10-20 km) will probably work only for companies providing car sharing/public transport services limited to highly urbanized areas, still that's a big market.
A 100 km battery seems quite good approach especially because you might plan a better battery if you are not so focused on the highest energy density possible (but too low density and you are wasting weight) or the shortest recharge time
Toyota isn't the only company in the world that makes high quality cars.
There is Honda.
I imagine that the trolley-bus/truck/car approach will work very nicely for heavily trafficed highways where your throughput is high enough to pay for the overhead (!). But you'll still have batteries on board because they won't be electrifying every little street, lane, carpark, track etc.
They can be much smaller, lighter, cheaper battery packs if they don't can be recharged every time you get to a main road. Run "on the wire" for 500 km out to a rural location, drive around for 100 km of bush tracks, then back on a major road to go home again.
I presume that a suitable payment system to pay for the charge/recharge would be fairly straightforward to implement. Followed by years of amusing news stories of people hacking their system to register as the local politician's car or whatever.
Didn't one of the japanese car makers announce a $18,000 equivalent kei-car this week? Though most americans wouldn't be caught dead in a sub-compact car…
Is it about the price of the EV -or- the cost of the charge-up and availability of the charger?
I forecast this two years ago. That is why I am looking to buy the Testla car and not the stock. So why is she still touting Testla to hit $10k a share by I believe 2025? Not only will EV's drop the price of cars but what will people be driving in 10 years. Or will they be driving. I saw a stat where in NYC only 65-70% of younger residents are getting a drivers license. I don't know what the scene will look like in several years. I will defer to Elon to figure it out.
Why are you thinking burying coils, rather than having overhead wires? I think the latter would be much cheaper to install.
Here are two articles on such ideas.
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2008/01/bumper-cars-o-1.html
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2009/07/trolleytrucks-trolleybuses-cargotrams.html
Burying the coils in the street would be expensive. I guess it could be done as part of the regular street maintenance program.
I think that if a significant percentage of the circulating cars will be electric there will be no need to carry batteries around: it is extremely wasteful to accelerate and decelerate hundreds of pounds of batteries when you can electrify the streets in the same way it is done for trams/trolleys. The best part in every machine is the part that is not there, it does not break and it has no cost.
At the moment cities and nations do not invest in such infrastructure because electric cars are still a relatively small part of the total, but a purely electric car with no battery (or a minimal battery) will probably be extremely cheap to manufacture and will have significantly lower power consumption, it will not rely on future batteries breakthrough (as the tech is already there) and it will not be subject to fluctuations in the supply of lithium.
Regards.
If they do, and it's got a cross-country range on it, I'm trading in the Corolla I just got LOL. Which, by 2025, will likely have depreciated to $18,000 in value!
Forget about tesla stocks, not too much growth potential there anymore. Lithium junior mining companies are currently undervalued. (for example ASX:AGY). Not only tesla but every car manufacturer will need lithium, it will be the new oil and gas basically.
Of course if it’s a Tesla Model 2, it will cost $18000 for the car and $50,000 for the TeslaNetwork FSD software and no cars will be available for sale without the software.
Quality EV? So does that mean Toyota has an EV coming out in 2025?