COVID Cases Increasing Globally and in the USA

The CDC reports that US COVID hospitalizations have increased 4% from last week and daily confirmed cases are up 16%. If this is a new surge and wave of COVID then there will be a doubling or more of daily cases within 2-3 weeks.

Infections are picking back up again as virus variants threatening to sweep across the U.S and as re-opening increase.

Roughly 28% of the U.S. population (94 million) has received at least one Covid vaccine dose and 15.5% has been (52 million) fully vaccinated, as of Sunday, according to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Vaccination levels should be sufficient to blunt the rise in COVID cases. This is based upon what happened in Israel. Israel is ahead in vaccinations but also ahead in exposure to COVID variants.

Johns Hopkins reports nearly 550,000 cumulative COVID deaths in the USA and 2.8 million worldwide. The global daily cases (7 day moving average) is back over 550,000 per day. The World had global daily cases of over 500,000 from the start of November to the beginning of February, 2021. Daily cases are high in Brazil, India and many parts of Europe.

The COVID case trend in April and May will indicate how much the vaccines will reduce the COVID cases when COVID is mainly the mid-2020 variants.

SOURCES: CDC, CNBC, Worldometers, Johns Hopkins
Written By Brian Wang,

63 thoughts on “COVID Cases Increasing Globally and in the USA”

  1. Usually when people say "no lockdown" they usually say "no social distancing". Its part and parcel of their credo. When NY locked down they were caught with a wave of deaths with no idea of how deadly the epidemic was. Their hospitals were overrun. It was a sensible course of action. As for Florida, their COVID death numbers are understated. A comparison of deaths now to deaths a few years ago show much higher deaths than what they are claiming for COVID. I believe that all Red States are understating their COVID deaths so they can reopen.

  2. I doubt it is as high as 50% because number of deaths are too low and the fact that the infections haven't cratered more. I am willing to accept a figure as high as 30%.

  3. No. That's your problem, you care more about opinions rather than evidence. Arguments from authority is just as worthless as those from a buffoon.


  4. Here is what you should be linking to:

    Hundreds of the most highly qualified epidemiologists and Public health experts around the world say the lockdowns are not just a mistake, but harmful. I'll take their opinion over yours any day.

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician and epidemiologist where the initiators of the declaration.
    Together, they created the Great Barrington Declaration.

  5. So hundreds of the most highly qualified epidemiologists and Public health experts around the world say the lockdowns are not just a mistake, but harmful. I'll take their opinion over yours any day.

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician and epidemiologist where the initiators of the declaration.
    Together, they created the Great Barrington Declaration.

  6. Which healthcare specialists? Be very specific.

    Here are 3 eminent epidemiologists, from Harvard, Oxford, and Stanford who are all strongly opposed to the lockdowns. And not just them, either, but hundreds of highly qualified epidemiologists and public health advisors who oppose the lockdowns:

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician and epidemiologist where the initiators of the declaration.
    Together, they created the Great Barrington Declaration.

    So hundreds of the most highly qualified epidemiologists and Public health experts around the world say the lockdowns are not just a mistake, but harmful.

    Is that the healthcare specialists you were referring to?

  7. So you propose keeping young, healthy people locked up indefinitely?

    If not, at what point are they allowed to live a normal life?

  8. Limitations
    It is important to highlight that we have presented a cross-country analysis. This means it should be considered as an estimate measuring the average effects, worldwide or for European countries. While this has many benefits in terms of generalization of the results and the statistical power of the model, there are also serious limitations in deriving precise estimates, since standard errors can of course increase. Caution is thus suggested in reading these results, which are necessarily also driven by the timing of the measures taken in Europe and the rest of the world, as well as by the spread of the pandemic (it is important to highlight that while we partially controlled this bias in the multilevel analysis, there is still an important heterogeneity within the regions, which are continents for the estimations on the entire dataset, and agglomerates of a dozen countries in the case of the European subsample).
    For these reasons, we highlight the importance of and need for further investigations on this topic, which may focus on more specific territorial or climatic subsamples, or on how governments have implemented lockdown policies.

    I copied that directly from the studies you linked to.

    Care to re-evaluate your position. The studies you link to are bogus.

  9. No. You are completely wrong. It is a big deal. Everyone should social distance, wear EFFECTIVE face coverings (N95 or KN95 (widely available)) when they can't, and practice good hygiene. NO ONE argues against that.

    What we are saying is take reasonable measures. Lockdowns are not reasonable. Businesses destroyed. Young, healthy people experiencing depression and high suicide rates. Drug use way up. Alcohol use way up. Government debt ballooning far beyond any other time in history.

    People are hardwired to work and feel useful. Now the government pays people to stay home and rot. Lockdowns not only don't work, they are evil.

  10. I can't believe I have to point this out. NOBODY is saying don't social distance. You continue to tie social distancing to the lockdowns. Places that social distanced, practiced good hygiene, and wore effective masks that didn't lock down did the same or better than the places that locked down. How do you not understand that?

    My wife is a medical doctor who is in her late 50's. She is a Doctor of Internal medicine who treats elderly COVID patients. She was in her office seeing 22-28 patients a day the whole last year. She couldn't social distance while seeing patients. But she could wear an N95 mask and a clear face shield.

    So she couldn't social distance, and couldn't lock down (someone has to treat Covid positive people), yet by wearing effective face coverings (key word – effective) and practicing good hygiene she never got the virus.

    Please look at the data about lockdowns. As has been pointed out, Texas and Florida barely locked down. New York and California locked down hard. Texas and Florida actually performed better than New York and California. All four states have huge urban populations and very similar demographics (Florida actually skews older, which means they had more of the people likely to die.

  11. I hope it opens up for you, my friend. Like you, I had to put in some work to get my two jabs, but I'm glad I did. It's nice to have at least a little peace, knowing I will be protected and can't give it to anyone (at least for the next 5 months).

    I keep thinking things will get back to normal, but I'm realizing a large chunk of people don't want to…

  12. The number of excess deaths went up even more than the number of covid deaths, so it's pretty hard to see how the covid death number could be exaggerated.

  13. Yes, probably 1/3rd of all excess death since the pandemic began has been not directly related to Covid itself. Especially last summer and spring people didn't get cancer or other health screenings, had serious procedures delayed for months. They had heart attacks and strokes at home, afraid to go to the hospital. Isolation and loneliness kill too. Since all of these things affect younger people than Covid deaths, lockdowns have already caused multiple times more years of life lost than Covid has.

    Not to mention already obese Americans got significantly fatter. I don't see that turning around. The long-term health consequences and premature deaths from lockdowns will carry on for many years. Let alone mental health, including for children.

    And a quarter century of progress in murders was undone. Back to 1990s rates. The wrong virus to take such draconian measures for.

  14. When most adults have already been infected and most of the elderly are 2 weeks or more past their vaccination shots, I'm not too surprised.

  15. Rubbish. Well over half the US adult population has already been infected. Getting a vaccination shot also is fine, but it also means there's a lot of unintended redundancy. By now 3 out of 4 elderly have had their highly effective first vax shot and 50% are fully vaccinated. The elderly were infected less than other adults, but still accounted for 80% of deaths and morbidities in those recovered. It takes 2 weeks for significant immunity to build, not a month.

    So the far majority of potential deaths in the USA going forward are off the table.

  16. I want to get the jab(s) – but…

    Nearly any time you go and check, all slots are full – let alone if you would prefer a particular vaccine. Not even a note saying WHEN slots come open, except one chain that said "no appointments for next 4 days"… You can't sign up to be notified when new slots come open so you could rush to sign up before they fill.

    Each pharmacy chain has their own system. So the obvious solution would be to go to the state site and check there first. After the usual eligibility questions, they point me to local sites with vaccine 'in stock' – Yay! But OOPS – clicking on a site just takes me back to a national chain's site anyhow… where I have to answer the same eligibility questions and AGAIN search for a location near me only to be told that NO site near me has appointments available. I'll have to repeat that every time I poll their site (with a few exceptions).

    And I have to go through the same thing to check other chains' slot availability. MAYBE I could avoid some rigamarole if I create a login for these other pharmacies I don't normally go to, giving them my personal info (name, date of birth, recent vaccinations, email, etc) Or maybe not – they don't say before you create an account if it will short-circuit any of their repeated questions… (Which they could use cookies for, if it mattered to them as much as marketing does.)

    I'm starting to think they don't really WANT me to get the jab…

  17. In theory, lockdowns should be effective. In practice, there's no great evidence they are

    They appear to work just fine:

    doi: 10.1007/s40258-020-00596-3
    doi: 10.1126/science.abd9338
    doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa037
    doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6
    doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7

    The efficacy of lockdowns is to slow the spread of disease, and that's exactly why they're employed when voluntary behavior falls down.

    a policy that won't be followed is a policy that's not worth imposing.

    Every prohibition ever created by society are always chronically ignored by varying % of the populace, that includes all the policies you may favor. Care to re-evaluate that position?

  18. Politicizing a global fatal pandemic is a form of suicidal and unnecessary Darwinism. Now that we have a vaccine, get vaccinated. Idiots that refuse to will die in droves from new variants. Political problem is resolved. End of conversation and the survivors can all move on to something more constructive and less brain dead.

  19. We've created the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate by having lockdowns. Had we allowed the healthy to build herd immunity while protecting the vulnerable we would have beaten this thing by now.

  20. Don’t disagree but depends a lot of which specific actions you’re talking about. For instance, early on masks were not recommended for general public by WHO and many experts, but that turned out to be wrong, at least in enclosed spaces with poor ventilation. Part of the error then was not knowing how many asymptomatic cases there were, and that the virus could be spread by those with few or no symptoms. That’s much better understood now. The role of superspreaders was also not understood until later, when it became clear that a relatively small minority of those infected were responsible for a disproportionate amount of infections.

    If you’re talking about lockdowns, then I think the jury is still out. Yes they do seem to slow the spread of covid, but are they needed (where not vaccinated) or are there better alternatives? That’s less clear since lockdowns themselves bring significant costs in terms of economics and mental health.

  21. You've moved from specific 'global actions' to just the general idea of doing something. 

    Nobody has been saying to do nothing, but a lot of people with legitimate medical credentials have said that some of the specific things we were doing were not very smart. That's the doctors I was talking about, who have been censored on social media.

  22. I do not like this "stole" argument because for example toilet paper, rocketry concept, gun powder(without it Europeans wouldn't be able to conquer America, overpower native indians, therefore no USA, also no big Australia for Europeans, Europeans would probably exist only in tiny, resource poor Europe), paper, compass and tons of other stuff was invented in China, so they can say that we and whole world stole this from them and build up on those inventions, which ultimately lead to renaissance and quickly after it Industrial Revolution. US stole all tech from Europe, when established new independent country. Noone was reinventing the wheel. Everything that was worth stealing, was stolen. We use our ancestors inventions and knowldge, it always worked like that. China is very close to catching up fully and when they'll absorb and learn everything that there is, they will start doing original work, just like US, Japan, Korea before.
    Already there is a lot of innovation from China nowadays, I can give you links to prove it

  23. "The West is charitable in general.The same cannot be said for China"
    Not yet, but don't forget that by todays standards they're still poor country, they are only strong in absolute GDP numbers. Per capita in China is only around $10k in 2020. Let's wait till they achieve level of say 50k per capita and then compare this with period when US had this level of per capita. This would be fair comparison.

    Yes, China is ruling with iron first you can say, but they do not stick their nose into other countries affairs like EU/US. They are only using this system on their own people, and so far people are quite happy with the results, I am not saying they will still like it in far future, I am talking about today. So if China's gov have backing of their people, good for them. I am not judging them from western point of view, but try to look at it like Chinese. Our opinion is here irrelevant. It's unique civilization, doing stuff their own way.We will see where this system will take them in the next 10-20 years. I strongly suspect that, because of its efficiency and speed they will quite easily catch up with the West and even overtook us. And as soon as they will catch up, with our sluggish system(without major changes, reforms), it will be impossible to catch them, they will escape at light speed in terms of tech, infra, science, wealth creation.

    Yes they stole a lot of tech, just like West "stole", "borrow", "learnt" trading with other civilizations.

  24. It has in Europe and it’s causing a significant third wave. It’s 50-70% more infectious, so it displaces less infectious strains, and it’s 30-100% more deadly. Two thirds of all UK covid deaths are related to the wave caused by this variant.

  25. Sorry, but the part of the “medical community” that doesn’t think covid is a pandemic worthy of global action is shrinking and mostly associated with the anti-vaxxer and pseudoscientific movements. I’m not saying there isn’t a healthy debate around whether lockdowns are the best response, but the science around what covid is, how it’s spread, and how deadly it is, is settled.

  26. More lies. If there is any racial supremacy going on in the world right now, it certainly isn’t white supremacy, which, in 2021, is infinitesimally small to the point of being almost non-existent.

    Americans have no problem with other countries developing. That is why US citizens consistently rank at or near the top in charitable giving. The West is charitable in general. The same cannot be said for China. What we and other countries have a problem with is the totalitarian communist boot that China tries to place on as many people as they can. And their infiltrative and subversive tactics they try to use to destroy Western society.

    China is the epitome of a tiny elite class ruling over the masses. And they have even less morals than the previous world’s elite. Technology (often stolen) or wealth does not make China any less archaic or primitive in their totalitarianism.

  27. And numbers of deaths from lockdown-caused suicides/depressions/homicides, and ones cause by preventative medical treatments being delayed because of panic-porn narratives. And deaths caused indirectly via lockdown-caused economic collapses. There is no free lunch.

  28. the medical community" lol thats hilarious to make it sound like there is some unified group… the medical profession is as politicized as any other… if you can explain why florida and texas arent all dead but new york and cali still have higher or just as high of rates of infection , than you can at least explain that masks and lockdowns dont work… best to do is take your own risks, thats what freedom means…

  29. you were brainwashed by white supremacy trolls and in general current elites(hint – all popular mainstream media from where you gain all of your info, are owned by them) who wanna stay at the top of the world as long as possible, trying to prevent developing world(and potentially many new strong competitors) rise. Therefore all those manipulations and fake news from them. They're desperate, you can see it in all those articles and videos.

    Everyone who visits China(I've been there many times recently) and see what really is going on there with own eyes, can easily see that huge majority of all those news are simply lies

    I do not belong to elite class(I bet you also not), so I do not care about them and their interests. I simply want more equality for all people, and will suport interests of majority of human race – 99% of people rather than those tiny 1% elite (who do not care about me and also you) and their interests, like you do, by believing and spreading their agendas.

    It's not about US vs China vs Arab world vs India and this nationalistic, archaic, primitive nonsense.
    It's about current established tiny elite and their interests vs new, rising parts of the world, where majority of human civilization members live, who potentially can disrupt old ways of those old elites

  30. The prove of the pudding is in the eating. For those who believe lockdown and social distancing doesn't work, they need to under stand that the end point of a pandemic is about 80% of the population infected. If you look at the daily infection curve and see where lockdown and social distancing was done you will see that daily infections drop. That is the prove that the policies work. No, infections will never drop to nothing in the US since some of us will not do what is right. Some of us will not stay home, we will not wear masks, we will not social distance, we will not vaccinate, and we will get sick and a few of us will die. And we will expend a lot of effort in getting others to join us.

  31. The policy don't work because people ignore then. When I look out my window, I see people walking. No one wears a mask. The kids are playing together, none of them wear a mask. Nobody cares until they shove that tube down their throat.

  32. Even with enrollment open, it will still take a few months to get shots in everyone arms and an additional month for the shots to be active. The next four months will be a be hairy.

  33. It makes no sense to require something if it doesn't really work anyway. 

    That's the bottom line here: In theory, lockdowns should be effective. In practice, there's no great evidence they are.

    You can blame that on people not complying, or whatever you want, but a policy that won't be followed is a policy that's not worth imposing.

  34. Depends on which part of the medical community you're talking about: The part that the government promoted, or the part social media censored.

    You had substantial numbers of doctors on both sides.

  35. Liar. China tried to sweep the whole thing under the rug for weeks, if not months, not even acknowledging it to their own citizens, and silencing doctors that tried to raise the alert.

    Japan is just as collective-conscious as China, if not moreso, has lower obesity that China, and is *still* reporting orders-of-magnitude more per-capita deaths than China. And as an island they have more easily isolate-able borders.

    And that’s before mentioning all the suspiciously-high Chinese crematory activity and phone line cancelations. I don’t believe for 1 second that China has only 4600 deaths. CCP are serial liars, even trying to blame other countries for the origin.

    You’ve been brainwashed by CCP lies, or (more likely) are one of their propaganda-spewing trolls.

  36. Going from 60% to 70% behavior does not have any true impact.

    Is that advocating magic as mode of transmission?

    There would be no need for lock downs if not for poor behavior. Lock downs are required to compensate for the vicissitudes of irrational and inept behavior, it's all about behavior.

  37. "China is most definitely lying about their numbers"
    Another ignorant China hater, brainwashed by constant lies from BBC etc media, whos all reports about anything regarding China are lies, easily debunked by non Anglo medias and even many westerners actually living there or just travelling there in person (not made up their stories by pseudo reporters sitting by their desk like UK media etc)

    China arrested the spread of the virus at very early stages, all of them wore masks from the beginning, they have 1000x smarter leadership than in the West. Tinfoils and conspiracy nuts are not allowed to upload, spread their materials(and to profit from it) confuse and influence non educated people in China's internet. These are the reasons.
    Just watch random vlog from beginning of the year, tons of vlogers done them walking the street, literally all of them wear masks, in the West we were debating and still are if wearing masks make sense and people are destroying cities cause they do not believe in them and believe random conspiracy nut rather than opinion of 99% of doctors and experts.

    China is not saint, no country is, but in regards to COVID, because of their culture(interest of group more important than individual), values, style of goverment, this was actually one of few countries in the world whos numbers were and are believable

  38. The official death rate is measured by PIC = Pneumonia, Influenza, Covid. Well, people have been dying in large numbers by the first two causes for 1000s of years. This past year we're supposed to believe it's all Covid – Influenza levels, we are told by the WHO and CDC, are near zero. Pneumonia is suddenly only the result of C(ovid). The death rates, especially in developing countries with poor record keeping, are at least partly bogus.
    On the other side, many, if not most people with Covid recover at home, and maybe never even tell their doctors they were sick (including me), around half the cases are "asymptomatic" or mildly symptomatic (vitamin D, C and zinc supplements are flying off the shelves, as people self-medicate, which may or may not work if caught early enough, which is very hard to design a test for). And the underreporting may be even more true than ever now, with a scarlet 'C' attached to anyone who dares to get sick. In some places if you get sick, you're not supposed to leave your apartment under penalty of law, but social stigma is greater than social support then, so who is going to volunteer that information unless they are too sick to avoid doing so?
    There is no difference in outcome between states with big lockdowns like CA, and states with few like FL (both sunny states, but Florida's older population is actually doing better than California's). The policies don't work.

  39. I stated the data. I did not say more lockdowns are needed. People have had a year to choose how they will behave. The overall lockdown or no lockdown policies have minimal impact in terms of real behavioral change at this point. Therefore, any variant increases will increase infections and people will minimally change. Texas has declining cases but no mask rules. Some people in Texas still wear masks. The highest infection rates in the US are in New York and New Jersey. Going from 60% to 70% behavior does not have any true impact. Either you go full China lockdown and force people indoors and deliver food for two months or everything is optional with support for outdoor gatherings and protecting seniors

  40. Better idea. Put it up to healthcare specialists. Politician types needs only robber stamp the scientists recommendations.

  41. For a site that bills itself as a science oriented site , there’s a lot of patronage from those who are still declaring ‘it’s no big deal’ and ‘we didn’t have to quarantine’. All directly in opposition to what the medical community suggested.

  42. Dumb comparison. Asia (and other areas with 3rd-world countries) has wildly different age demographics and obesity rates. Countries have different diets (at least part of the reason why Scandinavia has done better than the rest of Europe). Not to mention that worldometers has no consistent testing standards, procedures, and metrics from country-to-country (for instance German was not testing dead bodies at the beginning). Worldometers just blindly regurgitates self-reported numbers from each country.

    China is most definitely lying about their numbers. They have 1.4 billion people and it was running rampant, unchecked, there for ages. Russia has also put out statements suggesting much greater deaths than they are officially reporting.

    Business = health. Doctors visits, medicines, and surgeries do not spring out of nowhere. They cost money. What about all the extra homicides and suicide deaths caused by the lockdowns or the deaths caused by people delaying preventative medical care due to panic-porn? I guess you don’t care about those deaths.

  43. Stop giving advise, there are a lot of credulous people around.

    Higher # of cases gets you higher hospitalizations, higher ICU beds and finally higher body counts.

    Even though it's possible, rolling a pair of dice dont usually comes up snake eyes on every roll.
    Good luck with your theory on how to survive the pandemic, just dont forget buffoonery only needs to kill you the one time.

  44. Took the kids for a drive in SoCal two days ago. Lots of people in public without masks in SoCal. When the mask advocates have lost SoCal…

  45. We have much better treatments now. The death rate per case has been trending down for a good while. Locking up the young and healthy, paying them money to sit at home and rot, is evil. I feel sorry for people who can’t see that.

    By the way, I finished my vaccinations 2 weeks ago. (Moderna, 2 shots). I am now maskless in public, at least until I see hard data that says vaccinations don't work. Thankfully, I am in a state that is completely open…

  46. Brian, I am a fan of yours and love this site. But…

    The only stats that matter are current ICU capacity and death rate. Look at those numbers in the states that are open compared to the states that are locked down. If they are the same, then stop the insane lockdowns and panic porn. Young, healthy people should never have been locked up. That's how you get riots.

    Do we need to protect the elderly, the obese, people with heart, lung, or immunity issues? Yes. Keep them quarantined and support them. Provide them with masks that work – N95 or KN95. If they don't want to stay quarantined and don't want to wear an EFFECTIVE mask (again, N95 or KN95), then they must accept responsibility for their own actions.

    I am 57 with heart disease and diabetes. Since last April, I have been traveling nonstop. (7 flights, Puerto Rico, Disney World, San Diego, 29,000 miles on my car, 35 nights in various hotels). I work out in a gym 3 days/week and walk 25 miles/week. 6’3” and 194 lbs.

    Didn't even come close to getting Covid. All that was required was 1. Social Distancing, 2. Good hygiene practices, and 3. When I couldn't social distance (on an airplane, in the gym, in a public place) I wore the highest rated KN95 mask I could find on Amazon. I made darn sure I didn’t breathe someone else’s breath.

    Hospitalizations are a bogus number, as are # of cases. Hospitalizations that don't require ICU beds? Well, that that person is going to recover. That's all that matters.

  47. I think it should be up to the person, not the country. I'm a big fan of having a house & car. To keep a roof over my head I need money, which means I need to work. I don't care about the miniscule chance of death. If it's all about being alive then actually living, then I'd be in jail, in isolation, covered in bubble wrap.

  48. Look at worldometer the numbers are not good in the U.S 1 in 591 dead. Asia is still doing okay and hopefully they wont put business before health.

  49. Compared to countries that their vaccination levels is lower, the rise in the US has been minimal. The rise has probably to do with easing restrictions. The British Variant also has not become the dominant. This is probably because of the increasing effect of vaccination. We cannot expect straight drop lines, that also has not happened in the higher vaccination countries that lifted restrictions when vaccination has just having an impact. Biden said that by April 19 90% of adults in the US will be able to vaccinate if so they wish, this is probably optimistic, but soon we will be facing a vaccine glut that honestly we will need to distribute to countries in need.

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