COVID has caused an official global count of nearly 2.6 million deaths but there are also indirect excess deaths. Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures confirmed deaths and COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions. The hospitals were strained and people avoided going to the doctor.
When the official US COVID-19 death count was 370,000 the excess pandemic deaths (COVID and non-COVID) was estimated at 500,000. The current official US COVID-19 death count is now 520,000 so the excess pandemic deaths (COVID and non-COVID) would be estimated at 780,000.
Russia has one of the world’s largest excess-mortality gaps. They recorded 370,000 more deaths than expected between April and December, compared with an official covid-19 toll of only 56,000. Russia now has 87,000 covid-19 deaths. The excess deaths in Russia would be 570,000 if the indirect or non-covid excess deaths scaled with the official covid-19 count.
Many African countries do not have any real census of their people. It is a political choice to not count or recognize growing minority populations. They do not want to count some people and choose not to count anyone. Some countries have not had a census for decades.
Actual COVID and non-COVID actual global deaths likely range from 3.5 to 8 million so far.
SOURCES- Our World in Data, Economist, BBC
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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i'm assuming that everybody that was due die of a heart attack while doing blow at a night club in 2020 will pop up as excess death in 2021 once the restrictions are lifted and everybody goes into party mode.
The only country Sweden can be compared to is Sweden. While Sweden had excess deaths due to COVID it wasn't the doom and gloom that had been forecast with the BS models.
Florida. Open policies? Good infection numbers? Nice spin.
Florida’s numbers are an exercise in hiding data.
Does excessive deaths count the Cuomo effect?
"(there are control cases without *lockdown* but they are not very good control cases unless the countries you compare to have similar age structure, obesity levels, culture etc.)"
Norway vs Sweden is probably the most valid comparison, Sweden has twice Norway's population but 20 times the number of Covid deaths: 13,000 vs 630.
Does excess deaths count deaths caused by government reaction to Covid-19? People who's economic lives have been destroyed by having their livelihoods shut down have higher rates of suicide, and drug overdose either accidental, or not. Medical care/services not delivered, like cancer screenings. Depression caused by government mandated social isolation can result in self neglect, and even suicide.
Politicians always say "something must be done" just before they make things worse!
Look at Florida's relatively open policies, and it's relatively good infection numbers.
I don't think the testing and reporting requirements in the US to list COVID as cause of death have been robust enough to differentiate between deaths caused by COVID, vs deaths of patients being treated for COVID vs deaths of patients posthumously tested for COVID vs deaths of patients not tested, but suspected having COVID (limits of test availability last year) vs deaths of patients not related to COVID, but hey there's more money if you say they had it and no one is checking (Florida man killed in motorcycle accident listed as a COVID death.). In other words this analysis trigger's the first law of computing – Garbage In, garbage Out. The raw excess deaths is probably the most reliable estimate because of that.
I trust Western media on russian statistics about as much as I trust Russian official sources about russian statistics. You get the privilege of picking who should lie to you.
And because they lost their jobs and then had to face a tough winter without money. And because they were told not to come to the hospital and then skipped cancer screenings. And because of general hysteria and elevated stress levels. There are plenty of ways for lockdown to cause a negative effect in population healths.
Zero deaths is not possible. You have to compare how many would have died with no intervention with how many died with intervention (a small number, absolutely not the majority, *due* to intervention). Since there is no control case with no interventions (there are control cases without *lockdown* but they are not very good control cases unless the countries you compare to have similar age structure, obesity levels, culture etc.)
I feel that sometimes "culture" is synonymous with a chicken running around with its head cut off. And not in an amusing "you can see it on Netflix!" kind of way.
So the important question here is how many people under 70 have died? If from the "excess deaths" you have a high percentage of young people who've died then it can't be the virus that's killed them.
Also I am dubious about any stats about Russia out of Western media. The insane vilification of Russia means nothing can be trusted.
"When the official US COVID-19 death count was 370,000 the excess pandemic deaths (COVID and non-COVID) was estimated at 500,000. The current official US COVID-19 death count is now 520,000 so the excess pandemic deaths (COVID and non-COVID) would be estimated at 780,000."
That math looks a little shaky to me. Even if you went by ratio and proportions that gets us only to 703,000. Why would there be growth in the uncounted deaths beyond the rate of growth of the counted deaths? And the likelihood is that most of the uncounted Covid-19 cases that lead to death were early when we did not have tests or they were unreliable. Also the people teetering on killing themselves probably already did early on. It usually takes a change to be a trigger…but Covid-19 has just become a static element. And with vaccines there is a light at the end of the tunnel as well. That can give people hope.
No, I think even 707,000 is too high, and 780,000 makes zero sense. The reasonable range is 650,000-707,000. Around 670,000 Americans would be my guess. There were reports of hanky panky in Florida death reports. I am assuming the actual number was higher. If those allegations are true, then that 650,000 estimate might be a little conservative. There are a lot of elderly in Florida (average age is 42 only behind Maine), one would expect a bit more than has been reported, so maybe there is reason to be suspicious.
So 500,000 extra people died in Russia because they were told to stay home and wear masks. Got it.
are from effects of the lockdown and not the virus itself.
Who here feels much better knowing that there exists elsewhere cultures that are more inept than your?
I dont.