Defining Levels of Global Tech and Economic Acceleration

In order to see if there is significant global and economic acceleration there needs to be a baseline to compare against. This is unambiguous technological wealth standard to measure world-changing effects. The other measurement would be to use quality goals related for measuring changes to quality of life. Unambiguous quality measures of change would be like enabling lifespan unaffected by any aging effects. Aging would be reversed and agings deaths would drop globally to 1% or less of the current levels.

The world has been roughly doubling its GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms every 25 years.

The World GDP in PPP terms was
$26 trillion (2011 dollars) in 1970.
$54 trillion (2011 dollars) in 1995
$110 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2020.

The growth from 1950 to 1970 was faster at about 2.8X over 20 years. Going from $9.2 trillion to $26 trillion. This was the postwar boom.

The World GDP in PPP terms projected with 25-year doublings
$220 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2045.
$440 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2070
$880 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2095.
This is a rough baseline of a world without technological acceleration. It if roughly comparable to the rate of progress of the last 50 years.

A 1% higher annual growth rate over a 25-year cycle would be about 28% more growth for that cycle. Getting to a doubling beyond the baseline would mean 1% higher annual growth over 75-years or about 3% more growth annually over a 25-year cycle. A 50% boost in a 25-year cycle is matching a post-war boom. A globally significant lasting technological acceleration would go beyond the post-war boom.

Quantifying and Categorizing Global Technological Acceleration

Significantly moving the needle in terms of achieving globally significant technological acceleration would be the number of doublings beyond the baseline.

Level 1 (one global doubling) : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 or $880 trillion by 2070 or $1760 trillion by 2095.
Level 2 acceleration (two doublings) $880 trillion by 2045, $1760 trillion by 2070 or $3520 trillion by 2095.
Level 3 acceleration (three doublings) $1760 trillion by 2045, $3520 trillion by 2070 or $7040 trillion by 2095.

Being on track for Level 1 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 3% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.
Being on track for Level 2 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 6% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.
Being on track for Level 3 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 9% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.

SOURCES- Wikipedia
Written by Brian Wang,

8 thoughts on “Defining Levels of Global Tech and Economic Acceleration”

  1. The miracle of modernity's economic growth has been one of the biggest factors of actual social justice in all of the history of humankind.

    It has already got billions out of abject poverty and into the global middle class, which has access to many of the amenities of life enjoyed by the developed countries populations. Healthcare, more meat and other foodstuff consumption, computers, travel, etc. are normal parts of most of the world's lifestyle now.

    This doesn't necessarily mean "freedom and democracy", though. In general, it has only meant "investing in science/tech + capitalism-even-crooked", as China has shown. Modernity is a complex thing.

    Despite the vagaries of ideology and politics. That real, measurable growth is what make me believe the future will be objectively better than the now, and that humankind may eventually live in a sci/fi like world.

    Because gradually, people will get richer statistically, probably much more compared with today, without a clear bound.

    With access to things we can just dream yet. Like life extension treatments, or affordable space travel to orbit and living in other planets and space cities.

  2. That's fair as far as it goes, but I was thinking of America, where the bottom 3 quintiles have not seen inflation-adjusted raises in 40 years, and the top 1% has gotten the lion's share of GDP increases. Also, as you imply, more progress has happened for more people in China, than America. It's possible China will make the same mistakes as America – rewarding rent-seeking and monopoly, instead of production and entrepreneurship. Some of the recent moves by Xi indicate that.

  3. If the economic distributions are unhealthy and unsustainable then there will not be continued long term uneconomic growth or that growth would be slower. An example would be billionaire oligarchs in Russia can produce oil and gas but cannot keep long term growth. It is more one shot. China sustained 9%-12% GDP growth over 30+ years by lifting everyone in cities and moving more people to cities with catch up growth

  4. Unfortunately, this tells us nothing about relative distribution, and it's certainly true that the top 1% is getting more of the GDP today than they did in 1970.
    It also tells us nothing about what was lost by people who went from a cashless society where they were allowed to make a living from a bit of land, food they could raise, and things they could barter, to a cash society where they make a bare subsistence living and might have to be living in a factory dorm and separated from their families for almost a full year.

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