In order to see if there is significant global and economic acceleration there needs to be a baseline to compare against. This is unambiguous technological wealth standard to measure world-changing effects. The other measurement would be to use quality goals related for measuring changes to quality of life. Unambiguous quality measures of change would be like enabling lifespan unaffected by any aging effects. Aging would be reversed and agings deaths would drop globally to 1% or less of the current levels.
The World GDP in PPP terms was
$26 trillion (2011 dollars) in 1970.
$54 trillion (2011 dollars) in 1995
$110 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2020.
The growth from 1950 to 1970 was faster at about 2.8X over 20 years. Going from $9.2 trillion to $26 trillion. This was the postwar boom.
The World GDP in PPP terms projected with 25-year doublings
$220 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2045.
$440 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2070
$880 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2095.
This is a rough baseline of a world without technological acceleration. It if roughly comparable to the rate of progress of the last 50 years.
A 1% higher annual growth rate over a 25-year cycle would be about 28% more growth for that cycle. Getting to a doubling beyond the baseline would mean 1% higher annual growth over 75-years or about 3% more growth annually over a 25-year cycle. A 50% boost in a 25-year cycle is matching a post-war boom. A globally significant lasting technological acceleration would go beyond the post-war boom.
Quantifying and Categorizing Global Technological Acceleration
Significantly moving the needle in terms of achieving globally significant technological acceleration would be the number of doublings beyond the baseline.
Level 1 (one global doubling) : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 or $880 trillion by 2070 or $1760 trillion by 2095.
Level 2 acceleration (two doublings) $880 trillion by 2045, $1760 trillion by 2070 or $3520 trillion by 2095.
Level 3 acceleration (three doublings) $1760 trillion by 2045, $3520 trillion by 2070 or $7040 trillion by 2095.
Being on track for Level 1 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 3% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.
Being on track for Level 2 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 6% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.
Being on track for Level 3 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 9% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or more years.
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.