Who Should You Listen to About the Future?

Why is there a lot of focus on the Ark Invest report and analysis? Some people who do not follow ARK or Tesla closely think that it is the ebb and flow of hype. They are some random flavor of the month. This is not the case.

Ark correctly called Tesla going to $4000 when Tesla was trading at $200. They did this with accurate models and research that explained exactly how Tesla’s business model works. They called Tesla improvement in capital expenditure. They used Wright’s law to explain exactly and model the percentage improvement in margin.

They analyzed the Tesla Model 3 in 2016.

It is not like picking winning lottery numbers. They are explaining the current and past and future business.

Many people celebrate “great predictions”. Things like Stanley Kubrick having what look like iPads in the 2001 movie or Star Trek having communicators that look like flip cellphones. Kubrick also had Pan Am as the company operating the Spaceplane. The “predictions” were stumbling upon form factors that were the best for particular use cases. Many times it is sifting through millions of past predictions and pattern matching against what actually happened.

Something was not random or luck if it is repeatable or at least there can be a far lower component of luck. Someone saying that there will be a lottery winner every week is just citing statistics. Can they call “who” will win and how much based upon a far smaller number of tickets purchased?

Most people think of racehorse betting as pure luck. However, the professional racehorse bettor vastly improves their chances with research and skills.

Poker is played in a casino beside games of chance like blackjack, craps and slot machines. Poker is 100% a game of skill in the long run. However, there is a large element of luck in the short term.

If you play poker against a professional poker player then you will lose all of your money all of the time if you play more than forty hands. In poker, the players who do not know how to play or are vastly inferior to their opponents are the chumps at the table. They are the people who will be targeted and cleaned out. If you think the Stock Market and investing is a casino and you have not done research on the companies that you are the chump in the stock market.

If you play perfect basic strategy with Blackjack then your expected return is 99.5% (assuming a 0.5% casino edge). Card counting can give you an edge. If you do not know what you are doing with Blackjack then you can easily give the casino a 5% or greater edge.

Great stock market investors and stock market analysts have proven to thousands of other investment professionals that they have gotten great returns that have gone beyond luck. There are over 200 youtube videos on the Ark Invest report and it is covered by all of the financial news media. Why does Ark Invest currently have the influence level of Warren Buffet? Warren Buffet has surpassed the return on stock indexes for most of his sixty-five years of investing.

Ark models and sensitivity analysis say exactly where Tesla’s revenues, income and stock price go based upon major scenarios.

As a futurist, I follow and imagine “the What could happen”, but also try to get to “why”, “when”, “how” and “Who” in detail. Ark called What, Why, who, when and how in detail four years before and it happened exactly as stated.

It is worthwhile studying Ark’s analysis, methods and theories. Investors who did this anytime over the last four years and acted upon that understanding have performed far better than others in the markets.

Ark Invest explains why Wright’s Law is superior to Moore’s Law.

Ray Kurzweil and others have used Moore’s law to try to time and predict computer technology. However, Ray did not use this ability to predict stock market winners. Ray used it to get “vague what” technology predictions correct within a plus or minus of 2 to 10 years. Ray is going for understanding generally the speed and processing power quantities at different times and making inferences.

Ark Invests understanding of Wright’s law enables product price and company profit margin forecasts.

I have a little bit of ARKG, the genomics fund. I do not have any ARKK because I directly invest in Tesla. I have 50X in Tesla compared to how much ARKG I have.

People study Warren Buffet because he has useful methods that are repeatable. Those methods can be learned and understanding his statements and methods gives improved results. Ark Invest has information and methods that are repeatable, precise and they can be learned to get improved results.

Who Should you listen to about the future?

People who have a proven superior track record. Understand what is just luck and volume and what has skill, superior understanding, information advantage and repeatable methodology.
People who outperform on forecasting on what will happen.
People who can explain why, when, how and who before the What happens.

SOURCES- Ark Invest
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

5 thoughts on “Who Should You Listen to About the Future?”

  1. Who to believe about the future?
    I would say.. not Brian

    To be noted that:
    1) Brian supported the assassination of Soulemani (a war crime under intl laws and under US laws) by Trump
    2) Brian predicted there would be a coup in Venezuela before the end of 2018, he was wrong
    3) Brian predicted a victory of McCain over Obama in 2008 he was wrong
    4) Brian supported the Rossi scam, he was wrong
    5) Brian claimed D-Wave machine would have been successful, he was wrong
    6) Brian claimed Iran has been contained, he was wrong
    7) Brian keeps writing about Tesla but he owns shares of Tesla
    8) Brian censors comments when he is proven wrong
    (to be continued)

  2. Buffet's Berkshire has 40-50% of its portfolio in Apple, so that is responsible for that much of its performance over recent years. Apple, of course, has an enormous cash horde, for now, that it uses to buy back stock. His other holdings are mostly mediocre, but consistent. He like to tout See's Candy, but that's not even in the top 10. A single mega-event requiring Berkshire's reinsurance to payout can wipe out an otherwise stellar year of returns.
    There are hundreds, or even thousands of early stage stocks. They all need more money and are much more likely to issue new diluting stock, as to be the next Tesla.
    By the time an Ark fund makes its picks known, much of the early gain may already be baked in, at least in the short term. It makes more sense to just buy the fund, if you can stand the volatility.

  3. It is easier to list the people you shouldn't trust.

    • Politicians
    • CEOs
    • Anyone Trying to Sell You Something
    • Your Mouth Breathing Relatives
    • Your Mouth Breathing In-laws

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