There are examples of significant world-changing developments and technologies. There was the rise of China, the rise and impact of the internet and cellphones-smartphones. There was the first impact of the relatively aborted space age with the moon landing and hope for a transformational space age.
Changing the world economy at a significant level usually takes two decades or more. Even the fast economic rise of China took from 1975 to 2000 before China moved into the top 6 countries based on nominal GDP and 2009 before China was close to Japan for second place.
There was a surge in China coverage in western media because of Tianmen Square and then the handover of Hong Kong. However, it was not until about 2004-2005 that there was sustained coverage of China’s rising economic power and status.
Electrical power went from 10% of US households in 1908 to 80% of US households in 1942.
Cars went from 10% of US households in 1915 to 80% of US households in 1971.
Color TV went from 10% of US households in 1966 to 80% in 1981.
Computers were 20% of US households in 1992 to 67% in 2005.
Cellphones went from 10% of US households in 1994 to 84% in 2009.
Electric cars were 5% of new car sales in 2020 and are forecast to be 50-90% of new cars sales in 2030. It will take until 2035-2045 for electric cars to dominate all cars. There are about 90 million cars sold per year but 1.6 billion total cars on the world’s roads.
Despite the lag in actual usage, it has become pretty clear to most that electric cars will dominate the world at some point in the near future.
Self-driving could emerge with feasibility and minor penetration up until 2024-2025. However, self-driving hardware is being built into existing cars so software updates will enable millions of cars and trucks to convert to self-driving when the software issues are solved. Self-driving cars will then closely follow the adoption rates of electric cars. Although ICE cars will also be able to adopt self-driving hardware and software.
The true space age is clearly emerging with SpaceX and the fully reusable rocket. The fully reusable SpaceX Super Heavy Starship will increase the volume of payload delivered to orbit and beyond by thousands of times. The number of people who have gone to space will explode from just over 500 total and ten per year to tens of thousands per year. There will be space stations and construction in space at thousands of times past levels.
Personal life-changing technology and science that is coming are antiaging and aging reversal medicine and intelligence amplification via Neuralink interfaces and other genetic engineering enhancements.
Technology is Easier to Adopt Than Lifestyle
HIV coverage of services has been steadily increasing. In 2019, 68% of adults and 53% of children living with HIV globally were receiving lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART).
COVID vaccination coverage has passed 60% of adults in Israel and this level should be reached in the USA by May, 2021.
Only 2.7 percent of Americans get a moderate amount of exercise, eat right, avoid excessive weight gain and avoid smoking. 71 percent of the adults surveyed did not smoke, 38 percent ate a healthy diet, 10 percent had a normal body fat percentage and 46 percent got sufficient amounts of physical activity. Sixteen percent had three of the healthy lifestyle behaviors, 37 percent had two, 34 percent had one and 11 percent had none.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.