A COVID Baby Bust Happened, Will There Be a COVID Baby Boom?

In Italy, births plunged 21.6% in December, 2020 from the December 2019 and France had the lowest total babies born in a year since WW2.

National birth levels seem to be down around 2-20% around the world.

Historically short baby busts are followed by rebounds. A longer crisis increases the chances that potential births aren’t just postponed but never happen. Women who are already over 35 will have rapidly dropping fertility rates. There was no rebound after the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

A combination pandemic and financial stress could permanently impact population levels.

The US and other countries were already at the point where the Baby Boom generation was going into mass retirement. The US had a significant echo baby boom (aka millenials). Many other countries do not. Starting in 2023-2050 the US will have this larger population cohort returning the US to near the high production and consumption levels of the baby boom years.

This will give the world financial and business markets some support.

If there is no significant progress with antiaging and aging reversal in the next few years then many countries are going to experience Japan’s demographic hit to their economy.

Harry Dent is a doom predictor who uses demographics for his predictions. He has over-predicted doom but he is correct that demographics have a significant economic impact.

Demographics are like a head-wind or a tail-wind to economic performance. If you are in a sailing ship then this matters a lot. It has a measurable impact on an Olympic runner, running a 100-meter race. It is insignificant for race car drivers.

SOURCES- Wall Street Journal, Harry Dent
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com