A COVID Baby Bust Happened, Will There Be a COVID Baby Boom?

In Italy, births plunged 21.6% in December, 2020 from the December 2019 and France had the lowest total babies born in a year since WW2.

National birth levels seem to be down around 2-20% around the world.

Historically short baby busts are followed by rebounds. A longer crisis increases the chances that potential births aren’t just postponed but never happen. Women who are already over 35 will have rapidly dropping fertility rates. There was no rebound after the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

A combination pandemic and financial stress could permanently impact population levels.

The US and other countries were already at the point where the Baby Boom generation was going into mass retirement. The US had a significant echo baby boom (aka millenials). Many other countries do not. Starting in 2023-2050 the US will have this larger population cohort returning the US to near the high production and consumption levels of the baby boom years.

This will give the world financial and business markets some support.

If there is no significant progress with antiaging and aging reversal in the next few years then many countries are going to experience Japan’s demographic hit to their economy.

Harry Dent is a doom predictor who uses demographics for his predictions. He has over-predicted doom but he is correct that demographics have a significant economic impact.

Demographics are like a head-wind or a tail-wind to economic performance. If you are in a sailing ship then this matters a lot. It has a measurable impact on an Olympic runner, running a 100-meter race. It is insignificant for race car drivers.

SOURCES- Wall Street Journal, Harry Dent
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

19 thoughts on “A COVID Baby Bust Happened, Will There Be a COVID Baby Boom?”

  1. Covid = total G7 society re-set. Real estate. Bulk transit. Commuting. Services' Industry vs Site Manufacturing/ Construction. Education. Sin/Rich/Capital Gains taxation. Population densities in rural/ ex-urbs. Rent. Huge double-digit% pivot to new levels — not quite Purge-type changes but check this all in Q2-Q4 2022.

  2. We'll have to do some serious geoengineering long before that, if we don't want to flood all our coastal cities and much of our most productive farmland. The ocean rose a metre every twenty five years or so when the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which covered pretty much all of Canada and a fifth of the US, melted. Antarctica and Greenland are of comparable size, and the temperature rise we're heading for is on a par with the difference between 15,000 years ago, and the start of the Industrial Revolution.

  3. A baby boom is unlikely. After leveling off during 2013-2015, they began declining again in '16. This was the case for countries such as China, India, Russia, and many others, not just the U.S. This suggests other factors are in play. Covid-19 merely accelerated the trend. It is worth considering that this fertility decline occurred during '17-19 when we had a "Reagan-like" economic growth along with a Millennial generation being of the same age range as the boomers during Reagan. This also suggests other factors are in play. One possibility is xenoestrogens, some from plastics manufacturing but most from agricultural pesticides (these are all hormone mimickers now).

    There were two papers published early on last year, one in JAMA and the other in lancet, about how SARS-CoV-2 causes infertility in males. These papers have never been refuted. It was also rumored late last year that the protein produced by the mRNA vaccine is a very close analog to Syncytin-1, a protein that is necessary for pregnancy.

    If anything, fertility will decline further in the coming years.

  4. Non human life doesn't have a future. Non human life has used up 90% of the suns habitability time frame. I love Koala bears as much as the next guy but they are not deflecting asteroids or making life multi-planetary. 3 questions. How many Humans should the Earth hold? How many humans should the solar system hold? What is the best use of Earth for the 10% of time we have left.

  5. You think this is bad, then compare it 10 years from now. Virtual avatars and mixed reality devices are coming. If you think people are woke now, it will only get worse and worse as people get more disconnected from reality and are fed with a positive feedback loop that confirms their stupid ideas.

  6. Who cares, humans will probably long gone before that. We either go extinct or we find other planets to live. If the progress continues at this pace, in 1000 years humans will have established several colonies in other planets.
    In 100 years rich humans will probably able to live 150+ years with quality of life. In 500 years immortality should be a thing by then if not earlier.
    The biggest threat the world faces is a deadly virus or similar, not covid 19 with a mortality rate around 0.2% or less.
    Mass vaccination without mid-long term testing might also do it.

  7. I think 500 million is when most plant life starts to die off due to increasing Sun heat. You are correct that life in form of single cell organisms might make it to 1500 million

  8. There is something deeper, an horrific catch that is happening here, which the pandemic is just a catalyst for. The deeper that we are moving to a mega society lifestyle the less reliant we are on organic social networks. We are being indoctrinated to rely on electronic devices for communication, to the point that most of us can work from home and get all our needs brought to our doors.
    The value of direct contact is getting lost in this paradigm, We only think that this system is compensating for it, and with it the need to bring children is getting ever more lost.
    We will find our balance on all levels when we realize that we need to move to social structure of an interconnected, participatory, egalitarian and resource sharing communities that are direct contact based and mostly self sustaining by using the best technology we have in our disposal  miniaturized for small production and direct contact community life style.

  9. Not convinced. Covid has provided an impetus and techno push towards remoteness in All things (read: the Great Decentralization) – the Libertarian Objective. Something that All the University of Phoenix 'online' clones, Teachers Unions (despite their best attempt to take advantage), Corporate overlords, aging infrastructure (even in CA), Helicopter parents, and content creators have been under great pressure to either overcome or destroy — yet here it is offering economic opportunity for people with a minimal home set-up and work ethic. With remoteness is cheaper land without the inherent cheapness (lack of amentities). Working from home is now/will soon be the premier perk — and what better way to consoldiate that 'perk' and achieve the much coveted 'having it all' Life – kids, career, wealth — easier on your own terms without commute and soon-bustling suburb and ex-urb upgrades. Hopefully, we won't get a reverse-urbanization Detroit-style — but a spreading out and expanding. With room and time is Kids.

  10. If I recall correctly, it actually will be considerably longer than 500 million years until the sun cooks the Earth — around 1500 to 2000 million years, if my memory is correct. However, for the purposes of this discussion the difference between 500 million years and 1500 million years doesn't matter. Your larger point is good.

  11. I can never really figure out what people in government want. They base their budgets on never ending growth and then they will act surprised when it doesn't occur. Libs have been very good at promoting what a blight on the earth humans are. Half the citizen have adopted this form of self loathing completely. When you ask the question can we global warm a barren Mars, not one ever provides a answer. Life in our solar system has been around for 4500 million years. We have about 500 million left until the Sun cooks us. In the words of eminent scientist Doctor Emmet Brown. “ Your future hasn’t been written yet. No one’s has! Your future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one!”

  12. No there won't be a covid baby boom. Much as covid has accelerated the move to remote working covid has also accelerated population collapse.

    And the people who run government want there to be fewer people because humans are considered a virus on the planet and a blight to Gaia.

  13. This problem was made worse by Malthusian death chants about overpopulation and how the world can't support the people we already have. By 1999, man will become man-eater. Soylent Green will be imposed by 2001 at the latest.
    None of this happened.
    China took the "threat" seriously and implemented their One Child Policy. By doing so, they destroyed their own demography. They're royally screwed. Removing the policy didn't help. It's cultural now. Peter Ziehan explains this ad nauseum.

    Advanced countries tend to have much fewer children (Japan). They end up with more retirees than workers. It's not financially sustainable.

    The USA is about the only country with a good demography. We should encourage a steady rate of procreation (within the confines of marriage) to ensure a continued demographic advantage. For many countries it's too late. Their people have aged past the point of childbirth, making it impossible to create a replacement generation. And even if they could, that generation wouldn't be productive for at least 20 years.

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