China Population 2020 Count Will Likely Be Low

The China State controlled media seems to be preparing people for low 2020 population census.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says it will publish some preliminary data from the once-in-a-decade population census conducted at the end of last year in April, including population and birth figures for 2020. Worries about China’s population outlook have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 percent in 2020.

The urban worker pension fund, the backbone of the country’s state pension system, held a reserve of 4.8 trillion yuan (US$714 billion) at the end of 2018. It is predicted to peak at 7 trillion yuan in 2027, then drop steadily to zero by 2035.

In 2019, the number of Chinese aged 60 or older reached 253 million, and that demographic will pass 300 million before 2025.

Over the past five years, the number of Chinese women in the prime childbearing ages between 20 and 34 has been falling steadily at an annual rate of 3.4 million. This pace of decline will almost double to 6.2 million in the next five years. The country’s annual number of births will fall to around 11 million by 2025 if China manages to keep its fertility rate at 1.5 births per woman, which is considered low. In comparison, Japan’s fertility was 1.369 in 2020. The 2020 births was just over 10 million but 2020 was a presumed unusual pandemic year.

Written By Brian Wang,