The China State controlled media seems to be preparing people for low 2020 population census.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics says it will publish some preliminary data from the once-in-a-decade population census conducted at the end of last year in April, including population and birth figures for 2020. Worries about China’s population outlook have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 percent in 2020.
The urban worker pension fund, the backbone of the country’s state pension system, held a reserve of 4.8 trillion yuan (US$714 billion) at the end of 2018. It is predicted to peak at 7 trillion yuan in 2027, then drop steadily to zero by 2035.
In 2019, the number of Chinese aged 60 or older reached 253 million, and that demographic will pass 300 million before 2025.
Over the past five years, the number of Chinese women in the prime childbearing ages between 20 and 34 has been falling steadily at an annual rate of 3.4 million. This pace of decline will almost double to 6.2 million in the next five years. The country’s annual number of births will fall to around 11 million by 2025 if China manages to keep its fertility rate at 1.5 births per woman, which is considered low. In comparison, Japan’s fertility was 1.369 in 2020. The 2020 births was just over 10 million but 2020 was a presumed unusual pandemic year.
SOURCES – SCMP
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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"If the USA can turn their modern millennials into soldiers and marines, then China should be able to do the same."
The US military is making massive changes in recruiting, retention, and promotion, and it is generally acknowledged that this is not nearly enough but, ya know, institutions resist change. Some resist change more than others . . . and then there is China.
OK until that stupid snake started talking about fruit.
I think you mean that the human species has a strong predilection towards dealing with whatever is current and near term, and taking a wait and see approach to anything further out.
Regardless of their orientation? I think that having them turn gay WOULD solve that particular problem. Though that certainly doesn't help with the next generation.
If the USA can turn their modern millennials into soldiers and marines, then China should be able to do the same.
That's the same PZ who said that Russia would reconquer eastern Europe by 2019? An action he also predicted based on demographics.
He seems to tell a coherent story with respect to driving forces. But take his predicted dates with a grain of salt.
Still not a problem.
Around ~12,000 years ago, there were ~2 humans on the planet and everything was ok.
Around ~2000 years ago, there were ~190 million humans on the planet and everything was just fine. Around ~300 years ago, there were ~600 million humans on the planet and everything was still fine.
they're already at 20k, will double that in a few years (tech progress will speed up gdp growth in next years) not only in China but everywhere.
What counts is brainpower, they're training 12x more scientists, engineers than US and those guys will invent next gen of super efficient, productive robots and tech in general. This fake not enough hands "problem" will be history in a 2-5 years
exactly
Those anti China people commenting here are living under a rock
We will have AGI in next 1-5 years
less people you have, more UBI per capita people will get
"low"
1400m instead of 1440m
The term is demographic destiny. The last 30 years cannot be undone.
Going from the way it is now, 7.6 workers for every one elderly person, to one-for-one by 2060, is going to be traumatizing, regardless of how many robots are around, and yes, forget superpower status, too many more immediate issues. The governments of our planet's largest countries seem to all have a strong predilection towards dealing with whatever is current and near term, and taking a wait and see approach to anything further out.
30 to 40 million of the males born in the past 30 years will never find a wife, regardless of their orientation, due to the even darker side of the one child policy.
I've also heard rumors that the military leadership is wringing its hands over the state of the rank and file. Nearly every one of those sharp looking young men in the parades were single children, pampered silly by many adult relatives, and their adaptation to military life is said to be problematic.
Which makes them all the more dangerous for the next decade.
They won't be rich enough. Robots are a rich society's solution.
I have heard it said that the grim fertility stats being provided by the Chinese government are pretty optimistic compared to the truth. Local and regional governments are funded for social programs based on the demographic data they provide.
Well, can't China employ more and more robots to fill in for lacking labor force? By the time the "crunch" comes, robots will be so good that there will be no lack of "work force"..
You watched the same 10 Peter Ziehan lectures I did.
Yeah, China really destroyed its own demography with the One Child Left Behind policy. That should be a cautionary tale to us all when dealing with the Malthusian doomsayers.
Just like Snowpiercer is a cautionary tale against those who would "combat global warming". Fiction, but still more plausible than any of the snake oil Greta Thunberg is selling.
Back to China, PZ says it won't even be a country by 2030. It's imploding fast. It missed the window for becoming the next superpower. It's already too late. The life support system is already gone. It would be nearly impossible now to keep China afloat, even if we wanted to. They're done. No future.
It still won't change the fact that 30 years after the 1 child policy, China is running out of 30 year olds. Chinese labor costs have increased by a factor of 10 in 12 years. And, they are heading off a Demographic cliff.
They will grow old before they grow rich.