China Population Dropping

There is speculation that China’s 2020 census could report a population that is already in decline.

China reported an estimated population of over 1.4 billion in 2018.

China’s population was previously not expected to peak until 2024-2030.

In February, 2021, China’s National Health Commission proposed fully lifting the family planning policy firstly in Northeast China. Northeast China has the lowest birthrates in the world with levels of 0.7. Replacement birthrates are 2.1.

China may have overstating birthrates and population levels for several years. Some Demographic experts have speculated that the overstatement is as much as 115 million people.

If there is a systemic overstatement of population, then the China government will not come clean with the 2020 census data.

It will be difficult for China to achieve meaningfully higher birth rates without radically adjusting government spending toward more social welfare, especially for elders, and without easing up at least a bit on Sinicization (anti-minority) initiatives.

There has been a lot more fertility treatments. The China IVF market could grow from CNY2.5 billion in 2019 (Calculated by sales revenue based on ex-factory prices) to CNY25.5 billion demand in 2024.

SOURCES- SCMP, Global Times, Foreign Policy, Mobihealthnews
Written By Brian Wang,