China Population Dropping

There is speculation that China’s 2020 census could report a population that is already in decline.

China reported an estimated population of over 1.4 billion in 2018.

China’s population was previously not expected to peak until 2024-2030.

In February, 2021, China’s National Health Commission proposed fully lifting the family planning policy firstly in Northeast China. Northeast China has the lowest birthrates in the world with levels of 0.7. Replacement birthrates are 2.1.

China may have overstating birthrates and population levels for several years. Some Demographic experts have speculated that the overstatement is as much as 115 million people.

If there is a systemic overstatement of population, then the China government will not come clean with the 2020 census data.

It will be difficult for China to achieve meaningfully higher birth rates without radically adjusting government spending toward more social welfare, especially for elders, and without easing up at least a bit on Sinicization (anti-minority) initiatives.

There has been a lot more fertility treatments. The China IVF market could grow from CNY2.5 billion in 2019 (Calculated by sales revenue based on ex-factory prices) to CNY25.5 billion demand in 2024.

SOURCES- SCMP, Global Times, Foreign Policy, Mobihealthnews
Written By Brian Wang,

10 thoughts on “China Population Dropping”

  1. Yep. Every time we're about to "run out of resources" we find a way to increase efficiency and yield.

  2. Malthusian exponential growth is completely impossible, but that hasn't stopped the concept from gaining traction in pop culture. Star Trek TOS had that episode where a planet was completely populated, with no room to spread at all. But how do you feed all of them? Jethro Tull's :Locomotive Breath" was about runaway population growth with no way to stop "the train". They terrified us with this concept, including the bleak future of Soylent Green, where people had to eat other people to survive.

    In the real world, the population grows to the capacity of the resources, at least until technology and wealth hit a certain level. Then birth rates drop dramatically. We're seeing this in China, and other developed countries.

    China artificially restricted its own birth rates with their One Child Policy, buying into the exponential myth. They have committed demographic self-destruction. It's too late to reverse this, at least for several decades. The people who should have had children are now too old to have kids.

  3. Yep. I'm having the same problem.

    At first I thought some topics had comments disabled, but it seems it is just a buggy comment system.

  4. yes, the same for me, this new system is vaporware Brian, I hope u didn't pay for the job yet, because it's not done correctly at this moment

  5. Why does "Load Comments" only work for some of the NBF posts? It didn't work for me on the 'Solid State Battery' & 'Light Activated Hydrides' Post

  6. Given the strain on natural resources, we should probably strive for more machines and less humans. So this is a good sign.

  7. Knowing the Chinese government they will probably issue a law forcing young women to have children, like they did 30 years ago, but in the opposite sense.

  8. One of the main lessons the world needs to retain from the follies of the post World War II negativism and the Club of Rome zero-sum game thinking, is that humans overall aren't a burden.

    Except for a few exceptions (those that actually take lives and property), humans are a net asset for any fairly developed country. Creating more physical and information wealth than they cost, and that's why we have seen the miracles of sustained GDP growth and the first really significant human condition improvements since we exist as a species.

    Such miracles shouldn't be taken for granted, the same for people.

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