Competition for the Future 35 Terawatt-hour per Year Battery Market

On Tesla’s 2020 Battery Day, Elon Musk made the case that there will be a 35 terawatt-hour per year battery market if the world electrifies all vehicles and battery enables the entire electrical grid. Tesla has a goal of making 3 or more terawatt-hours per year of batteries by 2030.

The current combined goal of all other car companies is to make 400 gigawatt-hours of batteries per year by 2030. The current total of all other battery factory plans is about 2 terawatt-hours per year of battery capacity by 2030.

If Tesla is correct and there will be a future market of 35 terawatt-hours per year of batteries then a world with this level of battery demand by 2035 will only have Tesla and Asian battery (mainly China) companies making over 1 terawatt hour per year of batteries.

SOURCES- Electrified, Benchmark, Tesla
Written By Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

27 thoughts on “Competition for the Future 35 Terawatt-hour per Year Battery Market”

  1. Often demand forces the supply. Back in 1900 there was no demand for gasoline and no automobile industry to cause the demand.
    Electric cars make sense. The main limitation is the battery.
    I can envision billions of dollars being poured into battery development to make them smaller, lighter, faster recharge, more durable, and holding a greater charge.
    It's practically guaranteed. The batteries are at the beginning of a tech curve that will leapfrog over previous batteries.

    Now what we need is something to put into the batteries. Just a battery isn't enough. You need to charge it.
    This will require a whole different technological curve.

    There are a couple things we need, some of which may be bypassed, depending on what advancements we make.
    Better batteries (faster recharge, more capacity, better recycling, etc.)
    More energy production
    More efficient energy distribution
    More efficient products using the energy

    While we're at it, how about electrical safety? Is anyone even looking into this? When you have a car battery with enough juice to move a multi-ton vehicle several hundred miles, that battery will become a potential weapon. If someone were to touch the electrodes, they might end up having a really bad day.

  2. We may be heading into an ice age already because of the solar minimum(s). We don't need to be shading the planet.
    I'm all for pollution-free energy, but I don't buy into the whole Global Warming hoax.
    Normally it would start getting into the high 80's or low 90's by this time in Alabama. I've been running the heater for weeks, as the temp rarely gets above 75F so far this year.
    The last few summers have been especially mild. It's freezing in Europe. Global Warming is a big scam.

  3. In the US everyone operates within 3hrs of one another. Other countries less than this. So yeah I do expect that they will simultaneously charge.

  4. The operating system and office products are only a part of what makes personal computing, along with the hardware, browser, search engine, etc. This product is being increasingly eclipsed by smart phones this days.

  5. A great opportunity to start power beaming instead of the *more* grid plans for the big stuff. Local microgrids should have the batteries, not all or nothing grid dependence with huge central battery banks. I've come to really distrust the grid. He who laughs last made(had) a backup!

  6. That would be my expectation, too. The charges could potentially run their own little peak pricing market.

    Mind, any increase in use of electric cars is going to be a net burden on the grid, but faster charging isn't a net burden, except to the extent the *local* grid might be overwhelmed. My neighbors and I might all have 100 amp or better service, but if we all tried drawing it at once the lines would probably melt.

    The grid is going to require some major upgrades for electric cars to be common, even with coordinated charging.

  7. I remember power had to be re adjusted (or more) when hairdryers came into sudden popularity. 7:30 am sharp!

  8. "a Manhattan Project-style effort to rid excess carbon from the atmosphere." Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator. Obviously. Space Solar absolutely essential, as you can shade the planet, provide power, distribute it, and open Space all with one project. The power provided produces no CO2 and powers removal equipment.

  9. while a lot would be mitigated by charging overnight, it would be foolish to not expect a significant portion to be charged during day time.

  10. It will be challenging to get to 35TWh with existing or near-ready tech. We will need some serious breakthroughs, as well as some serious alternate energy sources to replace petroleum.
    Space beaming, immense ground solar, or nuclear. ~Maybe~ fusion if they ever push that final yard for a touchdown.
    Current electrical supply isn't enough to charge a whole fleet of EV's like we're discussing. Most green energy is garbage. We need real energy input.

  11. And I would expect that anything like a fast charger would include off-peak, spot price, power sourcing that would automatically steer the systems away from charging at the same time.

  12. Space Solar will provide the energy locally pretty easily, so far less need for grid support batteries. Even before that, power beaming will balance the intermittent and variable loads associated with renewables, so less need for batteries there. And H should move energy in pipes, too, for microgrids that are not dependent on others so much, or a big grid supplying all, so fewer batteries needed for that too. And of course H for heavy vehicles and stuff will lead to it for cars too. Musk should be able to meet the demand for batteries!

  13. Great for bulk grid storage if the price pans out, not much else? He's gone quiet so hard to gauge their progress, especially after the moved from their initial single metal center layer antimony design to some fancy eutectic blend.

  14. utter nonsense … technology is still immature and cannot scale to global needs … I would bet he will not be the market leader

  15. Hmmm. That's the equivalent of ~430 million 82kWhr batteries a year. Simultaneous home charging of such batteries will require ~1500GW of electricity generation to be added a year. Goto 30min or 5min fast charging and that number will skyrocket.

  16. But will the market share be determined by who builds more battery factories or who has the better batteries? The later part is not determined.

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