Tesla 2022 Sales Could Be Over 2 Million Cars

Tesla’s Q1 2021 earnings call had several statements which indicate that Tesla is targeting the production of 2 million cars in 2022.

Tesla expects to sell over 500,000 Model 3 in 2022. Tesla could exceed this target with 600k-700k Model 3.

Tesla said they expect the Model Y to be the top-selling car (by revenue in 2022). This will need about 1 million Model Ys. Tesla could exceed the target for Model Y with 1.1M-1.3M. Elon is more confident about selling the most units of any car model in 2023 with the Model Y. This would be over 1.5 million.

Tesla will sell about 104,000 to 130,000 Model S and X each year and they will be fully ramped in 2022.

Tesla will be in volume production of the Cybertruck in 2022. Elon Musk has previously said Tesla will produce at least a unit volume of 250 to 300 thousand a year, maybe more.

Tesla will be getting over double the batteries from its suppliers (CATL, Panasonic, LG Chem) in 2022 compared to 2021. Tesla should have ramped its own 4860 battery cells to volume production in the second half of 2022.

These numbers total up to 1.85 million to 2.46 million.


SOURCES- Tesla, Elon Musk, Dave Lee Investing
Written By Brian Wang, Neextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

2 thoughts on “Tesla 2022 Sales Could Be Over 2 Million Cars”

  1. Interesting reading of how those different guidance numbers fit together. In the background of course is Robotaxi level 5 FSD. Late 2021 Dojo and HW4 enter the mix and Tesla expects wide beta release of feature complete FSD very soon in 2021- your mind blowing release article. If Tesla Network is operating autonomous Teslas in 2022 all the Demand numbers change. Even S & X would have much greater demand as luxury MaaS than traditional high end cars.

  2. I think I'll skip the obligatory posting of the number of units, revenue and valuations of the other car companies.

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