Excess Deaths from COVID Pandemic

In March 2020, the Imperial College of London forecasted global 2020 pandemic deaths of 40 million if no action was taken, and now the Economist magazine model shows nearly 10 million excess global deaths.

The official reported global COVID deaths is about 3.4 million. The official reported global COVID deaths increased by 800,000 from March 2021.

In March, 2021, Nextbigfuture had reviewed the excess death data and found actual COVID and non-COVID actual global deaths likely range from 3.5 to 8 million.

Public-health authorities classify anyone who dies within weeks of a positive covid-19 test as a covid-19 death.

Some people are counted as a covid death but many more are not tested and are not counted.

Most African countries do not perform population census. There are many poor countries that do not have good medical systems to perform COVID tests. There are many poor countries that do not have proper registration of deaths. This is also a problem for poor countries in Asia.

The pandemic has had indirect effects on death rates. There are fewer traffic accident deaths but more deaths from untreated or inadequately treated medical conditions.

If the COVID pandemic stretches out for other two years about the time needed to vaccinate most of the people in Africa and Asia, the excess death total might be around the 40 million global deaths modeled by the Imperial College of London. The Imperial College of London was a one-year unchecked Pandemic.

SOURCES- Economist, Imperial college of London.
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

39 thoughts on “Excess Deaths from COVID Pandemic”

  1. followed by Bleeding-Heart Liberal arguing that their grandmother's remaining 6 months in a nursing home is far more important that the ubiquitous lost human happiness of home, work and life; personal, education, and career achievements foregone; mental reserves, jobs, small businesses, untold lost ICU spaces, uncalculable dollars of medical overtime. They should chart the lost economic growth, techological advancement, inventions and progress foregone over the months and years and decades — how many cures and therapies foregone that would have added 6 years+ to the surviving grandmothers. I would start with the early learning childhood programs dismantled and the incalculable loss at those aged 2 – 5 years – missing a year of life – you might as well put them in a bubble – lost, stunted, retarded. How about the last 2 years or high school or college or first year of post-grad – invaluably lost for the top 10 – 20% of people – life and success and education and career and tech is about momentum, freedom from interruption and the fact 'that you cannot almost ever go back' — a young tree limb severed expands exponentially to 'what could have been' -times- a human population.

  2. that's why being an Actuary is the most difficult and noble of all professions becase it quantifies 'human value' by that most heroic of all metrics: risk tolerance and what it means to society – whether you be contributor or user.

  3. ridiculously reductionist and simplistic question – thank you for contributing, Oprah. It's about finding that sweept spot (if at all sweet) to see those positives and negatives for those that contribute and those that do not -and- those who actively choose to keep themselves in harms way after many months of warnings and info — similar to flooding in New Orleans or elsewhere along the Gulf Coast — who prepares and/or leaves at the 2-day before-warning? — who prepares and/or leaves at the 6-hour before mark? who prepares and sits idly by to protect their property and family -and- then uses up emergency resources sitting on their roof for rescue? and who sits idly by and simply dies, using up recovery resources? and who goes MAd MAx at the walmart or actively pillages the neighbors soon before, during, and/or after? Hero, victim, entitled, passerby – you must choose or have it thrust upon you. I point you to the impossibly simplistic but conceptually relevant movie courtroom tirade of the Great JN:

  4. agreed. also total wealth destruction – easy to see the job losses (temporary, sector, and permanent) fluctuate (or not) and see that kind of misery — but go to the big retail closures, chains diminished to 50% of their footprint, mom&pops – some saying 15%+ permanent closures, commercial and industrial real estate vacancies. A lot of capitalist fat got cut which may or may not bounce back. The new lean world may not be as fun and opportunity-laden as Winter 2019/20.

  5. meh.
    It's more important to discuss 'peak vaccinations' (how many adults are willing to get their first – methinks less than 70%), vaccination passports (school, stores, theatres, malls, airplanes, cruises, leaving country…), 3rd world country access to vacc, anti-vaccers, masks and vaccinations, and the timing of the first 'event' – july 4 total open and first indoor 'event' August LV convention (> 20k ppl – same HVAC)? This is the key to understanding the next 1 – 3 years – do we have a second 'influenza-like' baseline cause of death (influenza avg – 20k to 40k per year-Before times) to add to the others or are we going for near-90% erradication – polio-like, if practicable. The pandemic was just the first step – now we have The After Times.

  6. It’s Texas. Their reporting is ‘uneven’ from day to day. They’re playing games with their numbers, like Florida.

  7. Says 3 deaths on Sunday 16 of May 2021, and 28 deaths on Monday.
    And if they reported none on Saturday, that does not mean there were no deaths on Saturday. All it means is that people were not doing paperwork on Saturday.
    If Abbot is claiming 0, it is a political scam. Look for a 0 that is not a weekend or an anomaly.
    You think people magically don't die on weekends?
    I don't think Texas has much to crow about having lost 51,201 people to Covid. Though they did beat the average per capita by a smidge.
    Go 7 days with a single figure average. That would be the real deal for a State with almost 30 million people. The 7 day moving average is currently 44.
    We also don't know if the Indian variant will make any difference. Hopefully, it won't get a foothold. There are cases in the US, but so far so good. And I wish the people of Texas and every other State the best.

  8. Today Texas reported:

    * 0 Covid related deaths–the only time that's happened since data was tracked in March, 2020.

    * the fewest Covid cases in over 13 months

    * the lowest 7-day Covid positivity rate ever

    * the lowest Covid hospitalizations in 11 months.

    Thanks, Texans!

    From Governor Abbott.

  9. You read Mirco Romanato's comment, and canthony's reply, and decided that the pedantic nitpicking on disease/virus naming convention was the correct response? Why?

  10. Per capita GDP Brazil = US$8,717.19 (2019)
    Per capita GDP India = US$2,099.60 (2019)

    I would not be surprised if Brazil can manage to keep tabs on their population health better than India can.

    I mean, maybe they both can. But it would hardly be a mystery why Brazil could and India couldn't.

  11. That's why most people take up dangerous sports like skydiving, rock climbing and motorbike racing in their retirement.

    Well, no they don't. But they should.

  12. If the model says X, and the reporting agencies say Y – which is right?

    My guess is Z. Determined years after the current government and officials have retired, and based on careful counting of gravestones and tax records that suddenly just stop.

  13. Deaths are reported on average 8 days after a death. And as less paper pushers are working the weekend, the weekend numbers are always lower. And, assuming you meant Sunday…3 were reported. There were at least 28 deaths reported today.
    All together there is about a 16 day lag between policy change and effect on death rate. On average 8 days to die, and those 8 days beyond that to report.

  14. A lot of the poorer countries won't be as hard hit, because they are typically younger and have fewer obese people.

    The good news is that in Texas, there were no deaths from Covid yesterday, the first time since March of last year. Texas is wide open, and the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are way, way down.

  15. The reporting agency is only reporting people that went to the hospital, tested positive and died there….if that. There are lots of reasons all those boxes might not be checked.

  16. May June last year cases were inching down, nothing compared to what is happening now. Check below the US graph. Of course there are mathematical formulation to factor in how different factors correlate with number of cases comparing country to country, till then we can arrive to conclusion based on the data we have.


  17. "Vaccination has definitely reduced transmission in the US"

    There is no concrete scientific evidence of the effects on transmission,
    last year there was also a drop in cases in spring/summer, there was no
    vaccine. Saying that vaccines reduced transmission is an educated
    opinion at best.

  18. Computer models need to be rigorously tested against reality.

    If the model says X, and the reporting agencies say Y – which is right?

  19. Wrong, covid is a virus, just like the original SARS and MERS viruses. It mutates like any other virus, and through natural selection, evolves. Vaccines work. They have massively reduced deaths, serious illness and transmission in nations where they have been widely distributed. With the help of vaccines, we can handle covid like flu.

  20. Excess deaths are elevated by substantially more than the number of official covid deaths. That implies there are more unrecorded covid deaths, than there are official covid deaths of people who would have died that year anyway.

  21. Take India for example. Do you believe they have the resources to accurately collect data on COVID deaths? I think not. While it may not approach Spanish Flu numbers, history will record COVID as one of the more nasty documented pandemics to hit humanity.

  22. In 5 years, we can look back at the death rate per decade and see if covid had any impact at all.

    In the US, covid deaths are intentionally inflated. The official guidance is to label a death as a covid death if the person tested positive or if they were suspected of having the disease, whether it was thought to contribute to their death or not.

    The CDC has revised their covid deaths down once already. The 500k+ number people throw around isn't supported by science:

    The CDC number is 378k


  23. No, but at the same time, the real tragedy is measured in man-years lost, and it genuinely is less tragic if somebody dies 6 months early, than if they die 60 years early.

  24. Up next: some ghoulish invidiuals try to argue 3.4M deaths is irrelevant because it's only 0.043% of the global population.

  25. If people are going to die next year, the year after or next decade, does that mean it's OK to kill them today?

  26. It's interesting to look at the death count for previous years and compare to 2020. A good third of covid victims would have died that year anyway. Of the remaining 2/3rd, it's legitimate to wonder how many were going to die next year or the year after that.

  27. Rather than looking at "experts" estimates, we need to look at the graphs ourselves. Globally we are at the 4th wave which is the highest, but probably the last and already subsiding. Vaccination has definitely reduced transmission in the US which is at about 40% vaccination rate, It start taking effect in Europe which is at about 20% and even play a role in reductions in South America and India at about 10% vaccination rate. These are the main hot spots of the disease. There are more local factors at play of course. Africa is a big unknown, but still not the biggest population centre but soon will start vaccinating en masse soon.



  28. Good lord… if this weren't a great big ball of tragedy, those discrepancies would be almost amusing. Alas. What's the point of them fudging those numbers when their citizens are suffering? Because, aside from tragedy, that also creates a big ball of s[BEEP!]t, and we know that always rolls downhill.

    If governments lie about their mortality rates, that makes countries less likely to receive the aid they need. More people die. Viscous cycle. I want to add "Lying about COVID mortally rates" to the definition of "Derp" in Urban Dictionary.

  29. At this point I think the best course of action would be to get a viable, effective vaccine to a many people as possible, worldwide.  I understand there are people who won't want it; that can't be helped. But internationally vaccinating as many people as possible, especially in large population centers, seems essential as well as humane.

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