By 2030, Ford expects annual energy demand for its vehicles will be up to 140 GWh annually in North America and up to 240 GWh globally. Ford could have 80-100 GWh/year of batteries supply available around 2025-2026 unless they get a lot more battery supply deals.
The Ford F150 Lightning uses 130 kwh of battery for the base model and 180 kwh for the top of the line. This is an average of about 160 kwh of batteries. If Ford was only selling F150 Lightnings then Ford expects to sell 1.5 million F150 Lightnings every year in 2023.
If Ford was able to make and sell 100,000 F150 Lightning EVs with average pack sizes of 160 kwh then they would need 16 GWh of batteries in 2022 or 2023.
Ford is making the Mustang Mach-E crossover, an all-electric F-150 and the new E-Transit.
SK Innovations currently makes about 40 GWh per year of batteries. SK Innovation supplies Ford, Volkswagen and Hyundai.
The Hyundai Kona Electric sold 65,000 units in 2020 and the VW ID3 sold 57,000 units. The Hyundai Kona Electric has a 64 kwh battery pack. Hyundai needs about 4.2 GWh/year of batteries for the Kona. The VW ID3 has 45-77 kwh in battery packs. If we assume 70 kwh per ID3 then VW needs about 4 GWh/year of batteries for the ID3. SK Innovation plans to become one of the world’s top three EV battery suppliers by 2025 with over 125 GWh in global production capacity. SK Innovation has 15-25 GWH/year of battery capacity coming online from 2021-2024.
Hyundai and Volkswagen had more electric vehicle production than Ford in 2020. Ford probably cannot get more than one-third of the SK Innovations battery capacity. The Ford F150 Lightning will start deliveries in spring of 2022. Current Ford battery supply will go mainly to the Mustang Mach-E crossover. Production of the Mustang Mach-E stands at some 6,155 units in April and close to 21,000 YTD. The production of the Mach-E dropped in April from March 2021.
Ford will have to complete the factory conversions to electric and get production scaled. Ford might be able to make 10,000 per month of its EVs in 2021 and maybe 15,000 per month in 2022.
Tesla capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022 will be $12 billion and was about $3.5 billion in 2020. Ford’s EV factory and EV development spending is less than Tesla’s spending.
SOURCES- Ford, Statistica, theDriven.io, Electrek
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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