James Stephenson has made detailed projections for Tesla financials focused on the last three quarters of 2021. James also has projections for estimated Tesla car sales by quarter through 2023.
Tesla has had strong growth of about 50% every year for over a decade. Tesla now is the fourth highest volume of sales for all luxury cars. This includes luxury ICE (internal combustion engine cars).
James projects strong growth in net income and adjusted EBITDA for Q2, Q3 and Q4.
We will start seeing if these projections are correct with July 2nd Tesla car deliveries for Q2 and the Q2 shareholder meeting July 21, 2021.
Here is my 69-tweet 2021 Q2 Tesla forecast thread.
$TSLA This tweet is a summary
The next 16 tweets are some pretty charts
The 3 tweets that follow are summary tables
The last 49 tweets in the thread are my detailed forecast that builds up to these totals— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's what Tesla's total revenue looks like by year and quarter. These are *actuals*, not my forecast.
It's hard to believe people are still selling this company short and saying "the growth story is over".
I am projecting this kind of revenue growth to continue.
/2 pic.twitter.com/EFbmBJxT27— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's a S3XY chart that shows total global vehicle deliveries by model and quarter.
I am projecting 218K deliveries in Q2 and 917K for the full year 2021.
/3 pic.twitter.com/lykWs1V6KB— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's a chart showing the quarterly trend over time in Production vs. Deliveries, including my forecast through 2023:
/5 pic.twitter.com/pSNFSYNMFn— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's a few charts all the Tesla haters hate.
The next time one of them tells you Tesla isn't profitable, show them these.
/7 pic.twitter.com/hJ11dPYjnF— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's a chart showing where the average dollar of Tesla revenue comes from, over time, using a 12-month trailing average to smooth out seasonality:
/11 pic.twitter.com/1LW6ebEBfp— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Here's a chart showing where the average dollar of Tesla revenue comes from, over time, using a 12-month trailing average to smooth out seasonality:
/11 pic.twitter.com/1LW6ebEBfp— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
The next 3 charts show premium vehicle sales by brand in the U.S. market in 2017-2020.
It's pretty remarkable how Tesla has already risen to 4th place (trailing only Mercedes-Benz, BMW, & Lexus) whilst *only offering 4 models*.
/15 pic.twitter.com/96R1oWlNZj— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
This is a different visualization of the same U.S. premium vehicle sales data as the previous two charts, making it easier to compare magnitude of sales of each brand and model (2020 sales data shown).
/17 pic.twitter.com/9jKE0wK9Zm— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
My whole detailed forecast is ultimately designed to help me forecast this one page:
the Income Statement.I'm forecasting a ($1.6B) deferred tax favorability in Q4 from rollover of prior years' losses applied against this year's profits (but who knows when it will hit??).
/19 pic.twitter.com/cqN08lgLLT— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
SOURCES- James Stephenson
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.