Ernst and Young predict Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036″. In 2019, new car registrations in the EU slightly increased to a level of 15.5 million.
Sales of electric cars topped 2.1 million globally in 2019 to increase total world electric cars to 7.2 million in 2019. Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2020 increased by 39% year on year to 3.1 million units to increase the total world electric car fleet to 10.3 million in 2020.
There are 1.4 billion cars in the world in 2021. EVs will pass 1% of total world cars in 2021. Reaching about 70-80 million electric cars should be the point when EVs reach 5% of total world cars.
If there are 5 million EVs in 2021, 8 million EVs in 2022 and 13 million EVs in 2023 and 20 million EVs in 2024 and 32 million EVs in 2025 then EVs will be over 5% of world cars by 2025.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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They will have an Aptera with a 1,000 mile range. And you can probably build up that by driving 30 miles a day (the typical average commute) and adding 10 to the battery every day. One free 500m or less road trip every 100 days, and free commuting.
I don't think everyone needs a car in waiting. We could instead summons a car from a pool of cars in our area. Autonomous cars would just pick up and drop off on demand. There could be a fee per ride or annual membership. We might be able to get by with a quarter or a third of the cars we have now. Technology is the word….
However, Seba's videos gloss over a very key point – while solar/wind/battery may be cheaper per kWhr, the ~4x over-production they talk about needing (to get the lowest LCOE I guess) still has to be paid for somehow.
If ratepayers had to pay for it, but consumed no more than today, they'd be paying 4x at the low renewable LCOE which maybe would mean ~2x as much as today?
Hopefully new uses (they mention EV charging, water desalination, waste recycling, etc) will pick up some of the cost – but I'd guess those uses will require discounted pricing.
My guess would be that ratepayers will end up paying about as much as today for the same amount of electricity, while variability-tolerant bulk consumers will pay a lot lower rate for the rest of the electricity.
Yep, I think he's got a point about over-investment in fossil fueled power plants due to lower LCOE than is commonly estimated due to electricty market disruption from renewables that are cheaper during daylight and windy hours.
However, fossil plant operators could add battery or other electric storage to let them run closer to 100% capacity, and that might be cheaper than just operating only during those renewables-off hours. Somewhat awkwardly, it might be coal plants (that operate best if run continuously) that could get the most benefit from this strategy, given their generally lower fuel price.
SUVs and Pick-ups as the key profit markets, before larger-scale unrolling of major EV production… more lag than people think…
margins are huge in SUVs and Pickups… who cares? sticker prices are now the bottom, negotiators need not apply…
unclear whether EV pricing is hugely affected by the sprawling of supply lines — if all-in-one-country vertical-integration will make much difference (if possible) — if so, US has big supply gaps.
and who will build these? Ford and BMW would be the leaders in recognizable brands in these categories…
and there is certainly evidence that the US is biding its time before really unrolling significant EV production:
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/06/20210629-icct.html
If the current 1.4x yearly growth continues, that could happen. But we'd better look carefully at what that'll do to the electric grid, especially if we're trying to get rid of fossil fuel generation at the same time.
Renting vehicles (or range extenders) sounds a lot better in theory than it actually works in practice.
Having actually tried this for a couple of years: guess when you want to travel? Holidays. Exactly the same time as most other people.
Oops, either the rental places are booked out or the price is 3 times the normal rate.
Well, you can get a lot done for the environment if you aren't interested in fame and fortune. But I doubt the chinese EV makers will be so charitable as to forego that profit, and I doubt the CCP will forego the fame of supplying the world with an EV future.
Is that 40 miles for two NIST standard cubic humans at some weight, plus some cubic luggage?
Seriously, for the occasional long range need, having a rentable range extender would be ideal. it's kinda a shame there isn't a semi-standardized trailer hitch mountable range extender with waterproof coupler, sorta like those trailer hitch mount ice cooler carriers. If the EV can detect it has a range extender available, it can change it's behavior. Avoids the trailer range extender problem (as in a lot of people suck at driving with trailer), and makes use of fairly standard infrastructure.
nonsense. red tape. private sector obstruction. endless redundant reviews from overlapping and superfluous agencies. burdensome financing and insurance regulations. There is Due Diligence and then there is plain and obvious industry interference.
some kind of reckoning is at hand, surely.
where is there even a good deal on housing – small 50m2 flats? 150m2 semis over 100 miles from a city core? co-hab projects where multiple unrelated 'buy in' to a home? Methinks we are going the way of Europe/Asia with multi-generational households, smaller kid counts, and elders continuing to reside; so as to afford a larger place. These behaviors may not support huge EV buy-in in the mid 2025s and beyond…
I think there is one major thing you are missing. Many people may switch to battery powered autonomous flight modules. These will indeed require more power. Probably not crazy amounts more, but more.
It is hard to know how fast this will be adopted or when it will start. It almost certainly will depend on 3 things: rate of battery technology improvement, cost, and when government will get off its duff and automate air traffic control. It is as if we still had switchboard operators for the phones.
If the cost is similar to a car, then they should sell well…especially to commuters that have to endure a lot of traffic, those that have a much shorter distance by air due to geography, and/or dubious decisions in city planning, or those with very long commutes where increased speed can be leveraged.
Aptera mostly does not need charging. You get up to 40 miles/day from the sun.
I think other companies will try to make similar vehicles, if these become popular.
https://www.aptera.us/never-charge
Also, as batteries increase energy density, the amount of energy required to move them per mile goes down, if they have the same kWh.
People might get one short range vehicle…maybe 250 miles range, and one 750-1,500 mile range vehicle for road trips and such.
Hard call. Not convinced that the next few decades will see the type of hyper-urbanization (move to little or no yard/ little personal or only common parking) that 1990 to last year was featuring. Which means more personal miles (at least per capita) and greater opportunity for self-charging in a private or exclusive access facility. I think a supercycle of sprawl for most countries (perhaps less in euro-zone/ under-worker-utilized-Asia) will mean consistent EV purchase, use, and improvement. Pick-ups and large-SUVs will be the profit-kings that will spur larger selection and increased charging access.
Yes. yes. The Great Greanie Come-uppance. More for ESG, Optics-based Social programs, and Feel-Good Climate/ Diversity initiatives – crazy-expensive from what tax base and supporting what further profitable industries? Slapped-down fossil-fuel revenues, denuded ICE sales, primary residence capital gains taxation, other capital gains taxation far-reach policies, legacy bequeathment portion clawback, tertiary education payment taxation… the great ESG Wierding shall become the Great Tax Revenue Weirding.
Agreed. Personal car demand stabilization in the entitled G7 – FRA, GER, ITA, (maybe CDA/ UK) will likely limit car profiability, especially with anti-ICE squeezing and difficulty in building charging infrastructure at multi-family residential (huge chunk). The Bleeding-Heart Greenies (Less is More) outside the US/ UK have shot themselves in the foot as they demand more on lesser flow of of real world-changing tech/ production.
Half of what? Do we believe that there will be an upsurge in personal motorized transport in europe. Funny if the 'War on cars' in the EU (endless bike lanes and pedestrian domination zones with piles of cash on expensive and unproven transit methods (fuel cells? really?)) isn't the concept that crushes EU economics as the 'panacea of climate change' can no longer be afforded or utilized (working from home, reduced parking spaces in new residential Work, etc). Its a weird dynamic – EV pick-ups in US and EV mini-vehicles in southeast Asia — will that be enough demand/ profit to meet expected supply (as compared to ICE deliveries averaged over the last 10 – 20 years).
Cost.
I think the transition will be faster. Almost all new cars will be electric by 2030.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/03/wild-technological-leaps-by-2030s.html
"Ten cents per mile Robotaxi’s and level 5 full self-driving could arrive in the 2022-2025 timeframe. Cars built with the hardware for these systems are already on the road. There should be 4 million such cars in 2022 and over 20 million full self-driving cars could be built by 2025. Ten million robo-taxis could give rides equal to 100 million human-driven cars."
By 2030 98% of vehicles including EV's will be off the road replacing 60 cents a mile ICE's and personally owned EV's.
All true, but just one thing to add: the illustration was made by an art/design student and doesn't reflect any real plans from Tesla.
I think the point of that illustration is that Tesla could produce a standardized chassis, with various attachments to mount on it. This is pretty much the farm tractor concept. The tractor itself is mainly an engine, transmission, hydraulic pump/PTO, and wheels. There are a plethora of attachments to do the useful work.
In theory, Tesla can be more efficient cranking out mass numbers of standard chassis, and then making variable attachments for different uses. But the sedan in the illustration looks like a dirt and water trap between the chassis and body.
I expect the bugs in this concept will get worked out in agricultural and industrial applications first, before going to consumer use. Consumers have less tolerance for early issues.
Average US driver does 13,500 miles/year. Model Y has 353 mile range with 82 kWh battery. So would require 3135 kWh/year to run. There are 229 million US drivers, so that comes to 718 TWh/year for all drivers. Total electric production was 4091 TWh in the 12 months ending in April. So adding electric vehicles would be a 17.5% increase.
Assuming the fleet turns over in 20 years, we need to increase production by 1% a year, mainly at night. In the past 12 months installed utility capacity grew by 1.8% and small scale solar (residential, commercial, and industrial) added 0.4% to that. So long as we keep adding grid capacity at the current rate, it seems we have this covered.
Note that average power consumption was 467 GW, while installed a year ago was 1103 GW, for a capacity factor of 42.3%. Power plants and transmission lines are designed to handle peak demand plus a reserve for plants not producing for whatever reason (maintenance, drought, etc.) So in theory the grid can make more power by just running plants that are able to more hours. With solar and wind this is accomplished by oversizing the plant, and storing the excess for when it is needed. Electric cars are de-facto storage devices, much larger than most home storage systems. So by optimizing *when* we charge them up, we can avoid building huge amounts of utility storage.
I think faster and it needs to be .. I trust Tony Seba of RethinkingX he has a track record going back years of being correct on such matters
But they could totally dominate China, India, parts of Africa, and small islands. At least on a total number of cars basis. That's like half the world's customer base. It just happens to be the half with 15% of the world's spending capacity.
If HR Geiger worked as a mechanical designer, he would design those vehicles at the back. Seriously creepy.
Government introduces laws to force higher electrical consumption.
Government introduces laws to force lower electrical production.
Government gives you electrically powered computerised voting machines so you can vote them out… if you have electrical power that day.
Those ultra cheap cars made in India and China don't even meet the minimum legal requirements to be sold in much of the world.
Much higher percentage than 50% by 2030. The ultra cheap ( less than $10,000) electric cars that India and China are starting to make will DOMINATE the world wide car markets.
California can't keep the current load on line – and they're at the front of the line for mandating EVs. Glad I left 30 years ago.
That's what gets me. This huge push for electric is never coupled with a push for nuclear or something both renewable and sustainable…
…like nuclear.
The electric grid is not ready for that kind of increase. Look for legislation requiring charging stations be on a separate line that can be shut off by the utility companies.
No charging during peak periods.