Jordan Giesige has researched all aspects of the Tesla Battery Day announcements.
Jordan’s analysis is that the Kato Road 4680 battery plant should be achieving a 5 GWh per year production level. This means about 0.4 GWh per month of 4680 batteries. This would be enough for 4000 cars with 100 kWh packs. This would be enough for Model S Plaid production if it was using 4680 batteries.
A video by the Tesla Economist that analyzes the range and vehicle weight of the Model S Plaid. The range and weight suggests that the Model S Plaid will be using the 4680 batteries.
The 4680 batteries will enable $50 per kilowatt hour batteries. This will enable a high margin $25,000 high volume mass market car around 2022-2023. Actually having 4680 batteries on the road will place great confidence in Tesla’s ability to put 4680 battery production in Texas, Berlin and China. This would mean possibly doubling Tesla’s supply of batteries in 2022. Instead of 115 GWh/year there could be 225 GWh/year in 2022. More batteries means more cars and more profits for Tesla.
4680 in high volume (110 GWh/year) in 2022 is enough to nearly double the number of cars. Although, Tesla will likely use the 4680 to launch cars like the Semi and Cybertruck with larger battery packs.
3.5 million to 4 million vehicles per year in 2022 would enable Tesla to move up to about tenth in the world in vehicle production. However, Tesla would be vastly more profitable than other car makers. The Limiting Factor indicates that despite material shortages Tesla should reach about 7-8 million vehicles per year in 2025. This would put Tesla into third place for total global vehicle production.
Timeline if the video
1:24 Lithium Clay + Salt Extraction
3:51 Timeframes for LiOH and Cathode Production
6:04 Pure Nickel and Cathode Reactor
6:47 Interim Summary 1
8:31 Cathode Material
9:20 Tesla Silicon
11:26 Fast Charge Capability
12:55 Silicon + LFP
13:31 Interim Summary 2
16:29 Dry Battery Electrode (DBE)
17:40 4680 Copycats
21:02 The Tesla 4680
23:47 Alien Technology
25:25 Electrode Yield and Recycling
27:40 Structural Battery
31:12 Energy Density
30:30 Predictions vs Reality
38:14 Model 2 Production Cost
41:01 4680 Original Timeline
42:01 4680 New Timeline
43:34 “Volume Production”
44:34 Reliability Concerns
47:41 Kato Road is a Flywheel
53:37 100 GWh of Cells?!
58:44 2022 Cell Supply Forecast
59:13 Forecast to 2030
1:00:59 Materials Supply
1:03:32 Vehicle Production
1:05:47 Competing Tech
1:07:01 Tesla’s Technological Advantages
SOURCES- Tesla, Limiting Factor, Tesla Economist
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.