Prediction that Tesla Will Solve FSD by Mid-2022

Mr Know It All has a projection that Tesla should solve FSD (Full self-driving) to a six sigma level within 275 days. This is based upon the improvement of the FSD system matching to the amount of data from the number of miles driven used by Tesla.

Tesla currently has about 35 billion kilometers of driving data. They are adding about 2000 cars every day and this will increase to 5000-6000 cars every day by mid-2022 and 7000-8000 by the end of 2022. Each car will average 50 kilometers of driving data per day.

Mr Know It All’s projection does not include the increase in new cars per day. This could reach 2500 to 3000 cars per day by the end of 2021.

The projection also has a very conservative starting point in terms of interventions per day.

The main assumption is the improvement is an exponential function that relates to miles of driving data used.

Others Have Projected Early 2022 for Tesla FSD Solution Based Upon the Dojo Training Supercomputer

The Tesla Dojo training supercomputer lets human labellers, label 600 frames in seconds versus days.

Tesla is working towards fully automated self supervised data labelling of driving video data.

Cleaner watt compares the different software driving levels offered by Tesla.

18 months ago, Tesla was spending 70,000 GPU hours or three days to do a training run on FSD. Tesla is training limited for its improvement of FSD. The Dojo system is accelerating the number of FSD training runs to multiple times per day. This is described at 1:34 in the Warren Redlich interview with James Douma. The acceleration of training will help unlock the exponential improvement that could be possible with full analysis of the Tesla driving data.

Tesla Plaid 9.24 second Quarter Mile Average Almost 1 G of Acceleration

Mr Know It All also estimated the acceleration of the Plaid in its record quarter-mile and the use of over half a megawatt of power.

SOURCE- Mr Know it All, Lex Fridman, David Lee Investing, The Future Economy, Warren Redlich, Cleaner watt
Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)