Bloomberg Economics has published a forecast which shows that China’s economy will pass the US economy in about ten years. However, they push a study by economists at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and University of Chicago suggested that between 2010 and 2016, China’s “true” GDP growth was about 1.8 percentage points below what the official data suggested.
The Bloomberg Economic Scenarios:
1. Bloomberg Economics bullish case for China. China passes USA about 2030.
2. Bloomberg Economics base case. China passes USA about 2030.
3. Bloomberg Economics has a combination US bull case and China bear case where US-China stay exactly matched through 2040-2050.
4. Bloomberg Economics has some financial crisis scenario for China which prevents China from passing the US
5. Bloomberg Economics scenario where the China has lying numbers. This means in reality China never passes the US even though official numbers will not show this case.
It is not that big a deal if a country drops down in the overall GDP rankings.
India has passed several developed countries in overall exchange rate GDP. India ranks 6th in exchange rate GDP. However, France, South Korea, Russia and other lower ranked countries have more global influence and stronger military influence than India.
Sources – wikipedia, bloomberg
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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