Senate Democrats Agree on $3.5 Trillion Reconciliation Spending Bill

A group of Senate Democrats announced late Tuesday they had reached a tentative agreement on a massive spending plan worth $3.5 trillion over the next decade.

The budget resolution, which Democrats will attempt to pass the Senate with 51 votes via the parliamentary maneuver of reconciliation.

This likely includes the Electric Vehicle tax credits. This would mean $10,000 subsidies for each US built EV until two years after Electric cars are 50% of all new cars sold in the US.

This means Tesla buyers would get $10 billion worth of credits for every 1 million cars sold in the US. If Tesla priced at a higher level based on production limitations then Tesla might slow price reductions and make an extra $5000 per vehicle. Customers would save $5000 after credits. Tesla would get a $5 billion boost in earnings per million cars sold in the US.

Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

62 thoughts on “Senate Democrats Agree on $3.5 Trillion Reconciliation Spending Bill”

  1. Where did you get the idea that the only sort of 'shenanigans' there are, is fraud? Ad hoc, illegal alterations to the rules for conducting an election, which aren't uniform across a state, can rig the outcome of an election, too.

    And 2020 saw plenty of those.

  2. Incidentally, a space gold rush IS one of the few potential black swan events that could rescue our economy.

    If it weren't for the fact that our government is run by the people who arranged for it to need rescue in the first place. Windfalls can save you when you're going down despite your best efforts. They can't save you when you're going down because you're deliberately driving over a cliff.

  3. That was a current valuation, assuming the 3.5T stays constant in numerical terms, and roaring inflation.

    But, yes, it was satire, I expect if the sort of inflation I anticipate sets in, they'll just start adding zeros.

  4. Two possibilities:

    1) They have good monetary models, and so were actively planning on inflation, and just can't say they wanted it. In this scenario they'd be lying to us about how long they expect it to last, because the only way they'd want inflation is if they wanted it to go on a while, not just be a blip.

    2) Their models are worthless, they didn't see this coming, they have no idea how long it's going to last, and are lying about it being transitory.

    Well, 2)a: Their models are worthless, and they don't believe it, so they expect the economy to revert to agreeing with their models. That would be pretty dumb, which lends it a certain plausibility.

  5. Our only way out is to participate in the gold rush that is Space. BB's initial comment was high satire, counting current $ amounts as backwards (un)inflated future values. Why do you bad mouth cockroaches?

  6. The winner take all rather than various forms of proportional representation are the proximate cause of the losing streak. However, on the larger perspective, libertarians, unlike Libertarians, are fine with losing *power*. Voting Libertarian is a way to get advertising at this point, and an occasional but often counterproductive change in the outcome of a close race. Only as more realize the scientific and reproducible observational fact that healthy people, defined as those who have successfully completed Primal Therapy, are "live and let live" libertarians, do we win. Stop baby abuse. Stop making socialists.

  7. On a long enough time horizon everything is transitory. Weimar inflation was "transitory".

    Its telling that some downplay inflation as transitory instead of giving us some expectation for what kind inflation is coming. 5% annualized? 10% annualized? Oh no worry whatever it will be it will be transitory.

  8. 3rd party is a path to perpetual losing. Get the Libertarians in to the GOP and work with the small gov R's.

  9. Governments are looking for an opportunity to spend and governments like the idea of a "great reset". I couldn't honestly say if many governments dislike the corona induced panic. Their actions and much of their rhetoric seems to indicate that they kind of like the opportunity it has presented them.

  10. Inflation is a tax on the poor. Inflation is an incredibly regressive tax as it applies most strongly to the poor who rent, buy gas and spend a significant % of their income on food.

  11. Sad, but oh-so-true.

    Maybe I watch too much Left-biting Right-of-Center commentary, but it sure seems like The Party of the Smart and Science Informed are a bunch of lip-syncing dolts in the end. Remarkable. The collective group-think of a box of cock-roaches.

  12. And if you look close enough youll see its your money taken out over the next few decades…and your kids.

  13. There's no mystery about that: The left have declared inflation 'transitory', so anybody who contradicts that will be downvoted en mass. I understand they actually have lists you can subscribe to, that provide handy links to things you're supposed to visit and downvote. Without bothering to personally evaluate…

  14. You have a point.
    I do wonder why you got so many down-votes.
    Seems obvious, actually.

    INFLATION has always been 'real'.
    Just only that it is rare (in the US, EU) that inflation-rate is high.
    Or as high as it seems, now.

    Hoonoes, maybe it'll get high enough that the environmentally egregious practice of shipping strawberries from Argentine to the US in mid-winter will cease. One can hope.

  15. But they didn't vote the way RickC didn't want them too, so we're suppose to pretend that doesn't matter and conclude that an entire state is stupid.

  16. Not one bit of proof of widespread voter fraud, yet the lies, rhetoric, and the truly fraudulent audits continue unabated.

    Ironically, the true harm to our democracy is being done by the clowns that keep saying the election results aren't to be trusted. You don't have to be some "woke" leftist dolt to see that there is zero reason to think our elections have been compromised. It's been investigated over and over again, and the evidence just isn't there. Trump and his attorneys are 0-60 in court cases where they claimed there was voter fraud. Are we to believe that even the conservative judges and courts that these cases have been filed in have been compromised by the ever persuasive and diabolical Joe Biden and his evil doers? Can incompetent people like, Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer really be that cunning? Yeah, that's a rhetorical question.

    The left are supposedly smart enough to seize power over the presidency through voter fraud, but at the same time, not smart enough to gain a stronger control of Congress as well .

    This country is in trouble, but it's not because of voter fraud. Take your pick. The anti intellectual/science denying Trump cult , or the smug, arrogant, politically correct, always the victim, social disease that calls itself the Democratic party. That is the real crime in America, the lack of a viable option.

  17. Honestly if a fraction of shenanigans that happened during the last US elections would happen in some post-soviet state everyone would agree that elections were meddled with and are not legitimate. The US has helped Iraq and Afghanistan to have more secure and safe elections than the US has at home. In fact I don't think you can call US a democracy anymore. Its a banana republic. You don't register vote, you have no IDs, you are changing everything so that more fraud is possible… the fact that you can just show up, vote, move to the next point, vote… ad infinitum…is absurd. Or that you can be somebody who just crossed a border and vote… This is a scam. I no longer view US as a serious state and I advice my superiors not to make business with this government, unless they are aware of the danger amd have no other option…

  18. "This means Tesla buyers would get $10 billion worth of credits for every 1 million cars sold in the US."

    Translation: Rich watermelons being subsidized by the middle class and poor.

  19. Tax & Spend like there is no tomorrow… Because there may just not be. The Dollar is going down – along with most other fiat currencies. Well, maybe cryptos will offer some of us the salvation? Maybe, if they don't ban them. Otherwise, I am also buying some of the good stocks both US and International. Governments around the World have gone crazy with the spending – fiscal responsibility is a thing of a distant past.

  20. agreed. thanks for the distraction from Tesla, China, Cathie Wood stuff and the link-bait filler….

  21. Turns out that the Democrats don't have the votes to pass it in the senate. I'm guessing that pushing things forward is the senate majority leader's attempt to build support.

  22. Correct it's not about Tesla. But they can pass it through reconciliation without a Republican vote

  23. It was an almost exact repeat of 10 years ago. I was here for both. Main difference was they did not do paperwork to say how new rolling blackout plan would avoid shutting down pumping stations for gas. Are you saying Texas cannot handle growth? Needs new leadership. Vote Libertarian!

  24. The problem is power addiction, left or right wing in some places, monarchy others, tribalism, theocracy, only sometimes does the trigger become skin color. Nasty when it does, tho. primaltherapy dot com

  25. Looks like he is way too conservative. Does not understand O'Neill, unless I miss something in the presentation.

  26. I have been permanent resident in a couple of democratic countries, I have never been in one where you could vote without an ID.

  27. Funny, but inaccurate.

    I like California, travel there all the time. I used to dream of living there, back when it was growing and run by sane people. Now I look at what San Francisco and Los Angeles have become, all the crime and entrenched homeless camps, and I wonder how many more will flee, especially the high tech, high intelligence workers who can work remotely. A lot of those have already come to Texas from California. Bechtel, Toyota, McKesson, are a few of the big names, with a large number of smaller firms moving to Dallas and Austin.

  28. Yea, no. Texas' electric grid is fine. It was a once in a century storm and also the result of a massive influx of idiots, mostly from California, putting further strain on a power generation system that would have normally been able to handle it.

  29. could be worse… climate change, victim-group identity politics, covid vaccination rates, 'life' politics (if you get my meaning), woke 'true life' stories…
    thank your lucky stars there is a comfort zone between dry and esoteric daily tech clips and day-to-day hot-takes…

  30. more likely the NBF AD sponsors will be happy at bringing in more politically-loaded eyeball-grabber posts but which is otherwise meaningless content.

  31. Yeah, Texas is so bad people are fleeing California and New York to go live there…

    Texas and Tesla don't need the credits, but will be glad to accept all the 'free' money borrowed from the fed and printed by the Treasury. I wonder how long until the rest of the world figures out US dollars (since 2008) are not backed up by (1) collateral, (2) actual work performed, or (3) taxes and fees assessed?

    Even though unethical and immoral, the spending will continue until it collapses. Who knows when that will be? No one saw the housing bubble and financial meltdowns of 2008-2009 coming. No one saw the Wuhan/Covid Virus coming. It will happen slowly, then suddenly…

  32. Curiously, in Sweden all people show ID before voting. The strange thing is that people of all colors are able to get an ID and present it when required.

  33. I can't guarantee they're doing the former, but I've seen no evidence of them doing the latter.

  34. They should looking at why their grid failed and why people died, instead of trying to figure out how to block brown people from voting.

  35. It is coming out that the 3.5 trillion is aspirational and will be subject to many things. End result will be less money spent.

  36. To be fair, once you adjust it for inflation over the next ten years, it's more like $1T…

  37. If democrats agree on something, does not mean that it is going to pass. The focus on a specific tax credit in this bill is myopic. This bill is not about Tesla.

  38. Europe is going with 55% C reduction by 2030. These cars need electricity. Power beaming is the way to distribute the variable wind and Earth solar energy. "papers have been published which propose a constellation of relay satellites to distribute power around the globe." A-4

    edit: and this is why we need to go to Space, duh!

  39. Texas residents will rejoice. The Democrats are doing them a favor with legislation which may prop up their grid reliability, while Texas legislators ignore the issue and continue to rail against who can use bathrooms or take part in sporting events.

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