Tesla 4680 Battery Ramp for 2021-2023

Tesla’s Q2 2021 earnings call indicated there is a 3-6 month delay in the 4680 production ramp compared to their prior statements. Previously Tesla had indicated that they would have 100 GW of batteries in 2022 while now they are saying they will reach a 100 GW per year runrate by the end of 2022.

Jordan at the Limiting Factor has been hyper focused on EV batteries for the past couple of years. He has interpreted the statements and merged it with his research.

He is still expecting a 5 GWh rate at the end of Q3 at Tesla’s Kato road facility and 10 GW/year at the end of 2021.

There will be Q3 2021 Berlin and Austin M will start Model Y production and these will use the 4680s from Kato Road. This would be 500-1000 MW per month of 4680 batteries for Q4 2021. This would be enough batteries for about 7000 to 17000 cars per month.

Berlin would head to 5GWh per month by the end of 2022 and would have about 7-8 months of scaling production. This would be 0.5 GW in the first 2 months and then say 1,2,3,4,5 for each month. This would be a total of 17 GWh for 2022.
Austin would head to 4 GWh per month by the end of 2022 without about 10 GWh of total production in 2022. The 10 GWh run rate from Kato road in 2022. This would be about 37 GWh of batteries in 2022. This would likely put Tesla past BYD battery production in 2022. The etra 37 GWh of batteries would be enough for an additional 500,000 to 600,000 cars.

Tesla would then have 150 GWh of battery production in 2023. Tesla would be battling CATL to be the world’s largest battery maker. CATL is valued at about $200 billion. CATL is aiming for 230 GWh production in 2021 but has had some delays in increasing capacity. CATL supplies Tesla, Volkswagen and other EV makers. 150 GWh of batteries in 2023 would be enough for over 2 million additional cars if the entire supply was used in cars.

China’s total output of power batteries rose to 74.7GWh in January-June 2021, up by 218% on the year. Installed volumes moved up by 200% to 52.5GWh in the first half of 2021.

China’s largest battery producer CATL, second largest battery and NEV manufacturer BYD and South Korean battery producer LG Chem were the top three firms for installed volumes during January-June at 25.76GWh, 7.65GWh and 4.72GWh respectively, accounting for 49.1pc, 14.6pc and 9pc of the total.

A fully ramped Kato road facility in 2022 would match LG Chem’s 2021 battery production in China.

SOURCES- Tesla Daily, The Limiting Factor
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

7 thoughts on “Tesla 4680 Battery Ramp for 2021-2023”

  1. It's a matter of just barely solving the problems. The best part is no part, or if a part, the least possible part.

    Reply
  2. Brian, if you would please…

    Take the text of this article, and perform 4 global substitutions, in order:

    substitute GWh for all GW
    substitute MWh for all MW
    substitute GWh for all GWhh
    substitute MWh for all MWhh

    This will convert all the patently stupid GW's to GWh's, and leave the GWh's unchanged in the end.

    Then, if you do not mind, just remove this advisory comment! 🙂

    Reply
  3. Look at Matthew's (MATW), they are making the equipment to manufacture 4680. See their last earnings CC transcript for more intel.

    Reply
  4. Elon has stated that Tesla has a problem in producing 1480 cells with low defect rates. Fingers crossed that they can solve this.

    Reply

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