Tesla Delivers 201,250 Cars for Q2 Which More Than Doubles Last Year

Tesla delivered 201,250 cars in Q2 and produced 206,421.

This was slightly higher than analyst expectations and was in spite of automobile industry chip shortages.

The production was up 14% of the first quarter of the year and up 115% from 2020 Q2.

Tesla delivered about 17000 more cars in Q2 vs Q1. This means about $900 million higher auto revenue in Q2 vs Q1.

2340 Model S plaid were produced, which is about 2100 after the June 10 Plaid delivery days. Tesla is producing over 100 Model S Plaid every day. This will mean Tesla should easily make 1000 Model S plaid every week in Q3 or 13000 Model S Plaid in Q3. The nearly 2000 Model S Plaid deliveries were likely all high-end models $129,900 for an extra 80 million in auto revenue versus the regular average $50,000 price Tesla cars.

Tesla doubters were talking about Tesla China concerns but this delivery number likely means Tesla China demand and production was good. Tesla Shanghai is getting close to Tesla Fremont production levels. Both are producing about 100,000 cars per quarter.

Tesla produced 386,000 cars in the first half of 2021. Tesla should produce more cars in the second half of 2021 as they continue to ramp the new Model S, the new Model X (starting in Q3 or Q4) and China and Fremont production and some production from Texas and Berlin as those get opened.

Nextbigfuture thinks Tesla has a very good chance to deliver over 900,000 cars in 2021. Tesla would need to open Berlin and Texas and got quite a bit of production ramp in Q4 to hit 1 million cars in 2021.

Elon Musk will not be getting any new share compensation allocation in Q2 which means about $300 million more net income. The higher auto revenue will likely add $300-400 million to net income. Tesla should have its first over $1 billion quarterly GAAP net income when earnings are released in about three weeks for Q2. This would mean over $2 billion for the trailing 12 months for earnings. This would be a $4 billion per year annual runrate for earnings. The forward 12 months for earnings would be over $8 billion per year.

The trailing 12 months price-earnings ratio (PE ratio) will be about 340 instead of 600. The forward PE ratio will be less than 100.

Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Telsa)

5 thoughts on “Tesla Delivers 201,250 Cars for Q2 Which More Than Doubles Last Year”

  1. Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. Didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect. -Musk

    Did he think everyone else was just lazy or stupid? Magical thinking only takes you only so far, further breakthroughs in ML are required.

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