Here is why Tesla Bot has an assured level of success.
The Tesla robots do not have to exceed the level of Boston Dynamic robots for agility to win. Boston Dynamics was founded in 1992 and has recently started making about $50 million a year in revenue. Boston Dynamics has 300 top AI researchers. Boston Dynamics was bought by Hyundai for $1.1 billion a few months ago. As cool as the Boston Dynamics robots are the regular consumer is not lining up to buy those robots. They have sold or rented a few thousand robots.
Can Tesla recruit 300 or more additional top AI researchers from Tesla AI day? I would say yes Tesla can. They can pay each top AI person an average of $500,000 per year each or $1 million including extra hardware for a top lab. Tesla has $20 billion in cash and has over $4 billion per year in free cashflow. Tesla and Elon can easily capitalize a larger humanoid research division than Boston Dynamics and Tesla can do it for $300 million per year without buying Boston Dynamics or Sarcos Robotics.
Can Tesla create the real humanoid robots or centaur bots that will be shown in one year at a product launch AI event in one year or worst two years? Yes, Tesla can create working prototypes.
Elon can bring compelling prototype robots on stage in one to two years and then start accepting pre-orders. Cybertruck pre-order levels of success would have Elon surpassing the revenue of Boston Dynamics. 1.5 million $100 deposits would be $150 million.
Just by announcing this vision, Tesla in a few months will have hired a few hundred more AI researchers. Those researchers accelerate the self-driving progress and launch a new humanoid and human scale robot division. Matching existing levels of robotic arm work with navigation will generate billion dollar per year revenue within four years in industries and markets that are $100-200 billion per year opportunities. Tesla can generate revenue from less incremental improvement than other robot companies. Tesla has access to pilot robots at a significant scale in their own factories, construction sites and partner and related businesses. Tesla can bundle partially useful beta robots with their other products to generate utility and sales. These would be useful real-world deployments.
Tesla wins just by hiring a few hundred more AI researchers to accelerate FSD and ensure greater success with FSD.
Tesla can be far more successful at monetizing beta humanoid and human-scale robots than any other robot company. Tesla has a base of real world navigation which enable real-world deployments which is a more useful capability than just agile robots for actual deployments.
Any Tesla bot competitor would need to buy and integrate something like Mobile-eye for vehicle self-driving and Boston Dynamics and add in billions in investment and partner with the most highly capitalized car companies, space companies, solar power and home automation company, battery utility companies and tunneling companies.
Tesla showed off an ATV (All-terrain vehicle) at the Cybertruck event. Tesla can put Vision navigation and the top torso of Tesla bot onto an ATV for certain useful applications.
The 2001 patents for the Segway have expired. Tesla can put the Tesla bot top torse onto balanced wheeled Segway type vehicles.
Tesla already has pure vision navigation AI that works fairly well. The Tesla approach to navigation AI scales down to smaller form factors.
In terms of real-world applications, Elon will apply his five key steps for making things better.
1. Make your requirements less dumb. Question requirements even from very smart people. Whatever requirement you have must have a person responsible for it. If people are questioning the requirement, then you need to go back to a person who knows why the reason it was needed in the first place.
2. Try to delete processes and steps. You want to be forced to add back in at least ten percent of the steps you tried to take out. If you are not forced to add back then you are not working hard enough to remove steps.
In school, we get strait jacketed into not being allowed to question the question or questioner and not being allowed to reject questions and steps.
4. Accelerate cycle time.
5. Try to automate it.
Elon has many options for using humanoid or human scale robots in potentially large and lucrative real-world applications.
Boring Company utility tunnels would be tunnels that are 6 inches to 3 feet in diameter.
Elon needs to automate and improve solar power, solar roof and powerwall installations. Tesla will likely get into HVAC with their world-class heat exchangers. This will mean a larger part of the residential and commercial construction markets.
Tesla has options for getting to robotaxi and delivery services. Tesla can add humanoid robots or wheeled robots with the top torso of the Tesla bot. Those can add utility for cybertrucks and cybervans. Tesla will have an advantage attacking the last mile issues for delivery and services.
The robot arms and head can be used to automate the supercharging stations.
SOURCES – Tesla, Brian Wang’s analysis
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (brian has shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.