Hyperchange channel Galileo Russell reports the production yield of Tesla 4680 cells has reportedly risen to about 70-80%, up from just about 20% last year. Tesla’s pilot battery line at Kato Road is starting to close in on the acceptable yields of factories like Giga Nevada.
Tesla is ramping battery output from its pilot line in California. Tesla is progressing on plan B with the 4680 cells’ delays. The production of the Model Y in Giga Berlin and Giga Texas will be launched with 2170 battery packs until 4680 cells are available.
The Cybertruck won’t begin deliveries until ~Q3 2022. Gali estimates Tesla is 6-12 months from producing the 4680 at scale.
Tesla overcame the Model 3 production issues. Tesla is now in a better position to handle the battery delays. Tesla has suppliers for batteries.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
I said for years Tesla needed to increase the size of it's battery cells, to lower production costs, and make cell replacement possible. It does seem they will lower costs, but making battery packs cells replaceable seems to be a bridge too far.
Elon, and those who back him, have the capital to overcome market barriers to entry, both natural, and government implemented. Most who have that sort of money don't have a physics/engineering background to know what is possible, and the risk tolerance necessary to start a car company, or a launch services company.
In the market for a Model 3 about 2 years out. I’ll only bite if it has the new battery.
I know words like "game changer", "insane", and "unbelievable" are thrown around a lot these days, but the new battery really will leave the other companies in the dust.
If Elon doesn't like how batteries work, he re-invents them.
If he doesn't like how electric motors work, he re-invents them.
And he always finds a profit motive where nobody else saw one. There's a gross inefficiency of 80% that everyone just accepted all these years, so Elon comes up with a plan to remove the inefficiency and monetize his efforts. It doesn't get much better than that.