The Value When Tesla Bot Shows Up to Work

Woody Allen said that 90% of life is showing up. Tom Peters said 80% of success is showing up. Tesla Bots will be able to show up better than Boston Dynamic robots.

Boston Dynamics have some agile robots that are able to climb and jump over barriers in rooms. Tesla has a million cars navigating the entire real outdoor world. The Tesla vision navigation is applicable to moving visually around an indoor space.

The utility of Tesla Bots will be higher than Boston Dynamic robots.

Tesla Bots will start with vision-based navigation that adapts to the environment in real-time.

Boston Dynamics uses fiducial markers (signposts) to guide robots around a path. The Boston Dynamic robots are also controlled by joystick controls but they have automated hazard avoidance and crash avoidance.

A Tesla car can navigate from where it is now to another GPS coordinate. There are GPS systems that can accept voice command instructions for target locations.

The Boston Dynamics humanoid Atlas robot is a research and development platform. They have a team of about ten developers babysitting the Atlas bots to make a huge team effort to produce the end product of Parkour videos.

Boston Dynamics does great work but is like Xerox Parc making graphical user interfaces and mouse pointing. It was then Steve Jobs and Apple that took that work and created commercial successes. Boston Dynamics has been working on cool robots for nearly 30 years. Boston Dynamics has been sold and resold many times and now has a few thousand robots and $50 million per year in revenue.

You will notice in the behind-the-scenes Boston Dynamic videos that the robotics experts are talking about solving foundational problems and are not working toward specific high-value use cases.

All of the others working on self-driving cars have Lidar and other expensive sensors and powerful but expensive AI chips. They have tailored their solution to self-driving cars in the $20,000 to $200,000 price ranges. Tesla’s vision-only solutions and custom AI chips can scale down to $500-$10000 robots.

Tesla is able to mass-produce a million units per year. Tesla can make smaller 1-20 kWh battery packs. Boston Dynamics has never mass-produced any consumer solution. Sarcos Robotics has not mass-produced consumer or enterprise products either.

The Industrial Robotic Arms market in the U.S. is estimated at US$929 Million in the year 2020 and the global industrial robot arm market is about $6 billion a year market. An industrial robotic arm can cost anywhere from $25,000 to $400,000. Tesla has over $11 billion in revenue each quarter and this is growing at 50-90% each year.

Steve Jobs also talked about the rigidity and lack of adaptability of big companies like Pepsi, IBM and Xerox. Tesla is able to iterate and change products dynamically every week. Waymo, Huawei, Baidu, Boston Dynamics, Ford, GM, Volkswagen have strategic plans that evolve over the timescale of a decade or more.

SOURCES- Tesla, Boston Dynamics, Steve Jobs
Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)