The The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) was named the number one think tank in the United States as well as the defense and national security center of excellence for 2016-2018 by the University of Pennsylvania’s annual think tank report. The Global Go To Think Tank Index, from the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania’s Lauder Institute, examines the role policy institutes play in governments and civil societies. Over 8,000 think tanks around the world were evaluated across a range of categories in this year’s report.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) cited Brian Wang and Nextbigfuture as a source on page 40 and page 42 of the 191 page of the Updated Report: Chinese Strategy and Military Forces in 2021.
The 2021 China report included an analysis of China’s Belt and Road, which is the section citing Brian Wang and Nextbigfuture. I made it easier for them to find the US Congressional Analysis of the Belt and Road.
The reports compares the US, China and Russia.
Nextbigfuture analysis: China is developing vast superiority to Taiwan’s military. China could take Taiwan if Taiwan did not have the will to resist and the US did not inject military deterrence.
If there was strong resistance then the US could easily cut China off from oil imports. China currently needs to import about 70% of its oil which is about 10 million barrels per day. China has a 400-500 million barrel strategic reserve. This oil reserve could easily last 50 days. China could ration oil and stretch the strategic reserve for many months. China has massive infrastructure vulnerabilities. There are many huge dams that could be hit with one conventional missile each. These things could also be hit with software attacks. China can be strong and intimidating with its offensive capability but China is made up of glass cannons.
China has added 11 large amphibious ships and could use thousands of commercial ships.
Any pre-invasion military buildup would be obvious from satellite and aerial imaging.
The US was weak against Russia when Russia went for Crimea (Ukraine). If China tried any pseudo military action like Russia’s Crimea campaign this would make the choices less stark. It would also be risky. Miscalculations on any side could lead to full-scale conflict.
Iraq thought the US would not provide military support to Kuwait but Iraq was wrong. China might think that the US will not provide military support to Taiwan. Iraq forgot how much oil matters to the US. China might forget how much Taiwan Semiconductors matter to the US.
China nuclear weapon posture is shifting. Nextbigfuture reported that China is buiding about 400 new nuclear silos.
SOURCES- CSIS
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Giving out nukes like candy is the road to extinction and not to greatness.
Pathways to greatness, education and not anti-intellectualism, industrial policy(pick winners) and not mom&pop shops, etc. Basically, it requires actions the vast majority of Americans are simply too lazy, selfish or simply unwilling to engage. It's far easier to coast on past achievements and collect societal residuals while demanding others should embrace stasis. You want to win a race, dont trip your opponent, try running faster.
Sure, that's a possibility however we should plan for and assume that this will not happen and China will continue on an upward trajectory. Right now it is beneficial to china for the US to continue in it's current ways of consumerism as it allows them to continually funnel wealth from us to them. When this is no longer the case or when it is no longer necessary for china, they will begin to pursue their interests w/o regard for what we think and conflict will ensue.
Of course China also has its own problems, they are just as likely to succumb to internal decay as the US. In 1987 I would have never thought that the Soviet Union would cease to exist in my life time but 5 years later it was finished.
I would love to look into that crystal ball to see what the world will look like in the next 10 – 20 – 30 years.
There were a lot of people making similar excuses as to why we should ignore Hitler, too, before WWII.
What makes your last paragraph particularly ironic is that you're literally counseling that we continue down the path to obscurity.
Congratulations, Brian, on your tireless and excellent work. And thank you.
The Chinese government is playing the long game. Reduce dependence on oil with electric vehicles and nuclear energy. Increase the number and size of greenhouses to feed the populace. Increase robotics and AI for the age wave problem and healthcare. The USA plays the 2-year, political cycle game, brute-forces "science" into a game of consent from the woke and the swamp, and seldom accomplishes anything anymore. Perhaps Xi is not waiting until he is certain of victory. He may be waiting for the USA to collapse and victory will be unnecessary.
Why one wants to do stupid stuff is irrelevant, there is no benefit to extinction. All countries should develop nukes, but giving it to any is insanity. Nazi Germany is irrelevant, Taiwan, China, America, etc is irrelevant.
You're not a humanitarian, you dont care about genocides of others, so stop feigning concern for the freedom loving denizens living on the island of Taiwan. You just care about whatever happens to be the latest obsession designed to keep the restless natives busy, focus on the latest evil bogeyman coming to take all your imaginary greatness.
The people of the US freely chose to walk the path to obscurity and mediocrity, you cant reverse that by demanding others should not rise or upset their path at every turn. Who dares wins, and rightfully so.
Power addicts are in a race to become "Icon of Repression" or "Exemplar of Neurosis". Understanding he basis of all addiction, childhood pain and its Repression, is 50 years old. The Primal Scream and Revolution. So, power addiction is a symptom of mental illness. Being proud of it is even worse.
China shall be free.
I guess congratulations are in order. While I generally do not have much use for news on the Chinese situation, it is certainly useful to others, as CSIS can attest. Objective reporting is certainly to be lauded, even if we all fall short of perfect objectivity to one degree or another.
Once more, in English, with less drugs.
Good communists, using money like capitalists to buy favors. The mob would be proud.
I would have expected such a cheerleading ‘red scare’ report from the likes of Rand, being the perennial lapdogs of the military-industrial business sector. But coming from CSIS makes it pretty honest and factual, data wise.
China is very good at bribing the leadership of countries to lack the will to oppose them.
Did you miss the "and I wanted to deter the Chinese from attacking Taiwan" part of that statement? Of course you don't think it's a good idea, you don't care if the Chinese attack Taiwan. There's no passing a risk/benefit test if you don't attach any value to the benefit.
China is an aggressive and expansionary totalitarian state, with ongoing genocides. Think of them as Nazi Germany with patience and staying power. We deal with them now, or we deal with them when they're bigger. There's no not dealing with them, unless you want your children to have to learn Chinese.
Whoever is willing to humiliate themselves as the Primal Revolution passes 50, the gestation period of new ideas, will regret it eternally. In the future, the pride of the power addict will be a source of amazement. And entertainment. And teaching. And shame.
You may have no problem with Republic of China(Taiwan) deciding if you live or die, but most people wouldn't hand off that decision to another country.
You actually think you can hand off nukes to another country and not expect incoming flowers over your cities if your friend gets into a fight with it.
I have business interests in the two Chinas and they both have decent vacation spots, but I dont particularly care what they do to each other.
Never forget, stupidity is, always has been and always will be an evolutionary dead end.
But I don't think that the US will have the will and Xi is waiting till he is sure.
Taiwan can defend itself if it builds massive precision rocket batteries against naval forces and beach landing that are sufficiently shielded against an attack but also, doesn't seem that they have the will.
Can't blame you for bragging.
If I were an American President, and I wanted to deter the Chinese from attacking Taiwan, I'd hand off to Taiwan a few mid-range nuclear missiles. China could reasonably doubt our resolve to go to war with them to defend Taiwan, but Taiwan's own resolve would be rather more believable.